NRL Round 4 Preview
It has been a hotly contested start to the season, with a number of upsets and tight games throughout the first three rounds, a stark contrast to the blowouts of 2021, and I’m confident on finding a few winners this weekend.
Gold Coast Titans ($1.28) v Wests Tigers ($3.60)
Thursday 31st March, 8:05PM, Cbus Super Stadium
I found this game toughest to assess from a betting perspective, as the Tigers travel to the Gold Coast to take on a Titans outfit who gave up 24 unanswered points in round 3 to go down to the Raiders. Coach Justin Holbrook will no doubt be wanting a big response from his side defensively, as lapses like that are not the hallmarks of a top 8 side. The metaphorical sharks are circling coach Michael Maguire at the Tigers as three poor performances to start the year have his side languishing at the bottom of the table. I struggle to see the Tigers earning the first win of the year on Thursday but I simply can’t ignore the 10.5 point start against a notoriously inconsistent Titans side.
Recommended Bet: Tigers +10.5 $1.90
Cronulla Sharks ($1.42) v Newcastle Knights ($2.85)
Friday 1st April, 6:00PM, PointsBet Stadium
Cronulla were the most impressive side in round 3, displaying a slick attack in trying conditions against arch rivals the Dragons to record a 36-12 win. I made a comment to note the performance of Nico Hynes and he did not disappoint, subsequently putting his name into representative contention. Whilst the Knights suffered an 18 point loss to the Panthers, the scoreline flattered the defending premiers who laid on several late tries and will be bolstered by the return of Kalyn Ponga. Cronulla look like a side that will be pushing for the top 4 this year after the previous two wins and I’m going with them here to put a third win on the board for 2022.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla 1-12 $2.85
Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday 1st April, 8:05PM, BlueBet Stadium
The round is headlined Friday night with a grand final rematch between the Panthers and Rabbitohs at BlueBet Stadium. Nathan Cleary returns in his first game of the season and his kicking game which went a long way to winning the grand final for his side will be key against a Rabbitohs side who kicked into groove last week against the Roosters. The battle between Isaah Yeo and Cameron Murray will be enough to tune in for this game alone, with Murrary’s stellar performance last week including a try and two try assists, while Yeo is currently leading the Dally M after the first 3 weeks, having picked up max points each round.
Recommended Bet: Panthers 1-12 $2.90
New Zealand Warriors ($2.31) v Brisbane Broncos ($1.62)
Saturday 2nd April, 3:00PM, Moreton Daily Stadium
After a promising opening two rounds, the Broncos were brought back to Earth at the hands of Queensland rivals the Cowboys, with the Brisbane faithful no doubt happy to put that performance into the forget pile. Star centre Kotoni Staggs had arguably the worst game of his career against the Cowboys, recording 4 errors and 5 missed tackles, but for a player of his quality I’m expecting him to bounce back in a big way on Saturday afternoon. The Warriors meanwhile continue to be one of the great anomaly’s from a betting perspective after just scraping home against a poor Tigers side. Despite Kurt Capewell and Jordan Riki battling some injury concerns, I’m willing to stick with the Broncos to win.
Recommended Bet: Broncos $1.62
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.45) v Canberra Raiders ($2.75)
Saturday 2nd April, 5:30PM, Glen Willow Stadium
The Raiders recorded one of the most remarkable victories in recent years, overcoming a 22 point deficit at halftime against the Titans to record a courageous 2 point win. Semi Valemi was impressive in defence, shutting down multiple second half raids from the Titans and will need a similar performance to combat the threat of Tom Trbojevic. On the other hand, the Sea Eagles broke through for their first win of the season in Round 3 and while it wasn’t impressive, Jake Trbojevic noted post game how good it felt to get the monkey off the back. I believe this can be a catalyst to kick start their season and I am going to take them to score over 18.5 points on dry Mudgee surface Saturday afternoon.
Recommended Bet: Home team over 18.5 points $1.88
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.75) v Sydney Roosters ($1.45)
Saturday 2nd April, 7:35PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
These two sides have subverted expectations so far this season, as the Cowboys return home after dominating the Broncos, and will come up against a Roosters side with just one win in 2022. Jason Taumalolo appears to be relishing playing under Todd Payten as do the halves pairing of Chad Townsend and Tom Dearden, and they’ll be quietly confident they can record their third win of the season in front of what will no doubt be a bumper home crowd.The Roosters were shocked in Week 1 by the Knights and were comfortably beaten again by Souths in Round 3. Both games between these sides resulted in 46 points in 2022 and I envisaged another high scoring game on Saturday evening.
Recommended Bet: Over 40.5 points $1.90
Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Sunday 3rd April, 4:05PM, AAMI Park
The Storm will be smarting on the back off a golden point loss to the Eels and a yet to play anywhere close to their best this season. Hooker Harry Grant and winder Xavier Coates return with Grant a massive inclusion as he will be able to manipulate the big pack of the Bulldogs. Despite a one point loss to the Sea Eagles, the Bulldogs are showing a starch defense so far in 2022, but lacking that killer punch in attack to be classed as a finals contender. While only 7 games out of 24 have been decided by a margin greater than what the line is set at for this game, the Storm’s relatively high error count (39) won’t last and I believe this weekend they can return to the form of 2021 which saw them break the NRL record for season points.
Recommended Bet: Storm -14.5 $1.90
Parramatta Eels v St George Illawarra Dragons
Sunday 3rd April, 6:15PM, CommBank Stadium
Round 4 closes with the Eels hosting the Dragons on the back of a thrilling golden point win over the Storm. Unfortunately, two try hero Ray Stone has been ruled out with an ACL injury, but the side will be happy with the early season performance of five-eight Dylan Brown. The Kiwi has often been criticised for being too passive in attack, however has recorded 4 try assists so far in 2022 to go along with Mitch Moses’ 5. The Dragons meanwhile were thoroughly beaten by the Sharks in the wet at WIN Stadium and are dearly missing Andrew McCullogh in the hooking position, who has been named in the reserves, but looks an outside shot of playing. The Eels have been active in the media wanting to replicate last week’s performance again, and if they do they will be winning comfortably.
Recommended Bet: Eels -9.5 $1.90
