NRL Round 18 Preview
With the Origin period now complete, we move into the last third of the season as the battle for top 8 spots heats up, read through to see where the value lies.
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.77) v Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks ($2.05)
Friday 15th July 6:00PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
North Queensland moved into outright second during its bye week and will be relishing the chance to play in front of their home crowd again. Most pertinently, Maroons players Tom Gilbert and Tom Dearden have been named to back up, but Valentine Holmes and Jeremiah Nanai will be rested and Jordan McLean and Murray Taulagi – both ruled out of the decider – are not available. Hosting fourth-placed Cronulla will not be easy, who come off 22 point demolition of Melbourne last week and are further boosted with Nicho Hynes returning from COVID protocols. The Cowboys have won their last five matches at home by double figures but I’m shifting into the shorter margin on account of the Sharks strong form lines.
Recommended Bet: Sharks 1-12 $3.00
Parramatta Eels ($1.14) v New Zealand Warriors ($5.65)
Friday 15th July 7:55PM, CommBank Stadium
Parramatta is seemingly having a slightly disappointing season having not yet consolidated its Top 8 position. The Warriors meanwhile had a week off after their first home game in 3 years, being a 22-2 victory over the Wests Tigers - a team interestingly, the Eels strugged to defeat last week. Parramatta has won its last three against the Warriors, but as $1.16 favourites have managed just two wins by more than 10 points and have been far too unreliable to get behind them giving away this many points at the line. I’ll stick with the Warriors at the line, but this game could really go either way.
Recommended Bet: Warriors +16.5 $1.90
Sydney Roosters ($1.39) v St George-Illawarra Dragons ($3.00)
Saturday 16th July 3:00PM, Central Coast Stadium
The Roosters take a home game against the Dragons up to the Central Coast in a vital clash for both sides. The tricolours sit in 10th on 16 points whilst the merger club are on 18 points, just above them in 9th. The Roosters are on a four game slide and are still struggling to gel as a team despite having one of the stronger rosters in the competition. While the odds for the Roosters as favourites are lower than the team above them, this is still reflective of the promise they have as a side, and I’m going with them here against a St George side who will no doubt bring the game to the Roosters but lack that class edge.
Recommended Bet: Roosters 1-12 $2.85
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.35) v Newcastle Knights ($3.20)
Saturday 16th July 5:30PM, 4 Pines Park
Manly host the Knights at 4 Pines Park on Saturday evening and will be confident on cementing their place in the top 8, having won 3 of their last 4 games. Similar to 2021, the side is improving markedly as the season progresses as youngsters Tolutau Koula and Christian Tuipulotu grow in confidence on the right edge. On the other hands, the Knights continue to struggle having won just 3 games since round 2 whilst only scoring 15 points on average per game, consistently not enough to be a finals contender. With captain Daly Cherry-Evans and talismanic Jake Trbojevic named to back up from Origin on Wednesday, Manly should be able to account for the Knights with ease.
Recommended Bet: Manly 13+ $2.85
Gold Coast Titans ($2.85) v Brisbane Broncos ($1.42)
Saturday 16th July 7:35PM, Cbus Super Stadium
The Broncos travel to the Gold Coast for another Queensland derby and with the odds on offer, are looking like one of the better bets on the weekend. Origin stars Selwyn Cobbo and Kurt Capewell have been rested, but Brisbane have named a side similar to the one which comfortably accounted for the Dragons in round 17 - a team considerably better than the Titans. Not much more can be said about the Titans, who despite possessing a team full of talent, have only recorded 3 wins for the year and a coach in Justin Holbrook who’s job must come into question.
Recommended Bet: Broncos -6.5 $1.90
Wests Tigers ($3.20) v Penrith Panthers ($1.35)
Sunday 17th July 2:00PM, CommBank Stadium
Last takes on first on Sunday afternoon as Western Sydney rivals the Tigers and Panthers do battle at CommBank Stadium. The Tigers slumped to 16th with their fifth straight loss last week against the Eels but have now moved Jackson Hastings, who has arguable been their best player in 2022, into the lock position from halfback. The Panthers are coming off a bye round but with Ivan Cleary opting to rest their multitude of Origin stars, the depth of the Mountain Men will once again be tested. Despite all these changes, the Panthers still possess one of the best defences in the competition and I think the line on offer looks a very good bet to kick off the first of three games on Sunday.
Recommended Bet: Panthers line
Melbourne Storm ($1.24) v Canberra Raiders ($4.00)
Sunday 17th July 4:05PM, AAMI Park
Melbourne are looking to avoid three straight defeats for the first time since 2015 and will be sweating on the availability of Cameron Munster, sorely missed against Cronulla, has been named despite being ruled out of the Origin decider with COVID and Harry Grant may be a late scratching dependent on Origin. Canberra’s revival hasn’t come to fruition as much as they would have liked, with losses to iBrisbane and St George Illawarra in recent weeks but still sit just two points outside the top 8. The Storm have won the last five straight between the clubs including a 30-16 win over Canberra in Round 5 and back at home should see them shake off the mid season blues.
Recommended Bet: Storm -11.5 $1.90
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($3.50) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.30)
Sunday 17th July 6:15PM, Accor Stadium
Canterbury has been a different side under interim coach Mick Potter, and while still not a regular threat, are a much better side than the one from earlier this season. South Sydney has won four of its past five games and chasing three straight victories for the first time in 2022, with Latrell Mitchell the key to their victories on his return from injury. The Bulldogs have won just two of their last 10 against the Bunnies and have conceding 106 points in losing the last three straight. Cook scored a hat-trick and Johnston bagged a double in a 36-16 Good Friday win earlier this season and with all their Origin stars onboard, I see this as a big victory for South Sydney.
Recommended Bet: Souths 13+ $2.34
