State of Origin Game Two Preview
Wednesday, 11th November 8:10pm, ANZ Stadium
With game one done and dusted and the Queenslanders defying all odds to take out the all important first fixture we turn our attention to game two, which is set for ANZ Stadium on this Wednesday. Read on as we look at whether Queensland (QLD) can clinch the series back from New South Wales (NSW) or if the men in blue can send the series to a decider.
2020 State of Origin Game Two Lineups
With game one featuring a humongous number of debutants across both teams there’s always the added pressure on these players to perform so that they don’t get dropped after just one game. Thankfully for most players they have retained their spots for this week's fixture but there has been a number of changes due to injury for both sides. For New South Wales they have lost influential captain Boyd Cordner and the energetic Cameron Murray for the series due to concussion and a hamstring injuries respectively. As a result Angus Crichton will move into the starting back row with Isaah Yeo to join the bench for his debut whilst Nathan Brown will take Murray’s bench spot and is also in line to make his NSW debut. In further changes for NSW Cody Walker has moved into the starting five eight position as Luke Keary has been dropped after his debut and Dale Finucane will come onto the bench in Walker’s spot. For QLD they have lost arguably one of their best players from game one in AJ Brimson as he is out for the series with a foot fracture and is replaced by Cowboys fullback Valentine Holmes. QLD will also be without Christian Welch due to a head knock as he is replaced by Dunamis Lui, who is in line to play his first game, whilst Coen Hess drops out of the side with Jayden Su’a moving into the starting back row and Moeaki Fotuaika joins the bench for his QLD debut. Other than that QLD are unchanged in other positions but it will be interesting to watch close to kick off as Kurt Capewell has failed to train over recent days and is being monitored with Edrick Lee likely to come onto the wing and Phillip Sami to shift into the centres if he fails to make the field.
Key Matchups
Cody Walker vs Cameron Munster
Two players who have very similar styles of footy in Cody Walker and Cameron Munster could well decide the way that this origin series goes on Wednesday. For NSW they have dropped Luke Keary from their starting side and replaced him with Walker, who in game one came off the bench in the last 20 minutes to try and spark the NSW attack. When Walker came on he played a roving role through the middle of the field but he showed that his energy and off the cuff style of footy had the ability to trouble QLD’s edge defence. If Walker is to be successful come Wednesday then he will need to shake off the unwanted tag that he currently has of being a flat track bully. Walker has proven his dominance throughout recent seasons but has failed to take Souths to a grand final in his time and has often been criticized in big games. For NSW’s sake they will be hoping that he will be at his best as he comes up against one of the most successful five-eights in the competition in Cameron Munster. Munster has proven over recent years that he has the winning mentality that is required at the top level and this is proven in his record of never finishing an NRL season in anything lower than a preliminary final. For NSW to win they will have to shut down his running game as he showed in game one that his evasiveness and speed had the ability to catch out tired defenders around the ruck and on the edge. Whether Munster can back this level of performance up again remains to be seen but going off his record you’d be silly to bet against him.
Jack Wighton vs Dane Gagai
In game one NSW’s left edge defence and Qld’s right edge attack proved to be the difference in what was an other what tight affair. On NSW’s left edge was Jack Wighton, who normally plays as a five eight but was in the centres for this fixture, and throughout the game he was caught out numerous times by QLD’s Dane Gagai. This was highlighted by Wighton missing a whopping seven tackles and one that led directly to a QLD try. NSW will be desperate to fix this issue and Wighton, who was the Dally M Medallist for 2020, won’t want to be embarrassed on the big stage in two consecutive games. Despite Wighton’s defensive issues he still showed his influence in attack as he was able to run for 179m, the 3rd highest in the game and he will need to replicate this at least if NSW are to gain control on the left edge. For QLD all they will be asking for is for the same again from veteran Dane Gagai. Gagai was immense in game one as he set up one try, set up one line break, had one line break himself, four tackle breaks and had a huge 90% tackle success from 30 tackles. This last stat was particularly huge as he was able to hold his own despite NSW throwing multiple attacks down his edge throughout the game. If Gagai can play at this level again come Wednesday then NSW could be in trouble as they look to patch up their left edge defence, which will be a new partnership now that Cody Walker is in the side over Luke Keary.
Jake Trbojevic vs Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Game one pitted the NSW veteran Jake Trbojevic against the QLD debutant Tino Fa’asuamaleaui in what looked to be a huge clash between two contrasting players. In this game Fa’asuamaleaui came out on top as he dominated the middle with a number of barnstorming runs that troubled the NSW defence. This was highlighted by Fa’asuamaleaui’s 128 running metres and 2 tackle breaks in what was a more than worthy debut from the youngster. Unfortunately for NSW Trbojevic had a relatively quiet game amid the dominance by Fa’asuamaleaui. Trbojevic only managed 88 run metres through the middle but it was his lack of control in setting up NSW’s sets that they dearly missed. In this role Trbojevic is normally the middle forward who is able to use his pass to link up with the halves or is the one to draw in a middle defender to create an overlap outside him. Unfortunately in game one this went missing due to both the pressure from QLD and what looked like a lack of organisation in the NSW attack. If NSW are to win come Wednesday then they will need this control back and a large part of this will come through Trbojevic’s work in the middle.
Recent History
As mentioned above QLD were victorious in game one as they triumphed 18-14 after trailing 10-0 at halftime. This game was huge for the confidence of a young QLD side and it showed a tremendous amount of character in what is a new look team. If they are to continue this form then they will need to overturn the unwanted record of having not won in NSW since 2017, when they were carried over the line by the great Johnathan Thurston. NSW also have a favourable record in game two across the last decade as they have won 6 from the last 10 game two fixtures in what looks to be a tough task for the QLD side.
First Try Scorer
With the first try scorer in game one going to Damien Cook in what was an excellent showing of his superior support play you can bet there will be a shortening on his odds for this game. Despite this we are leaning towards a NSW back to score the first try in game two. This back is fullback James Tedesco who showed in game one that he has the ability to pop up on both sides of the ruck and is dangerous whenever he has the ball in hand. In game one he went close a couple of times to scoring and his 300 running metres along with his 6 tackle breaks shows that he has the ability to jag the first try at what looks a good price for him.
Recommended Bet: James Tedesco First Try Scorer $10
Best Bet
NSW showed last year that when they have their backs against the wall they have the ability to turn on some electric footy. This was evident in their 38-8 demolition of QLD in game two of 2019 after they lost game one despite being favourites for the win. With this in mind we’re predicting NSW to come out and send a message with the series on the line and we’ll take them with the line in what should be another cracking origin game.
Recommended Bet: New South Wales -9.5 $1.90
