State of Origin Game One Preview
Wednesday, 4th November 8:10pm, Adelaide Oval
In the untraditional time of November we have the first State of Origin game for 2020 in the also unfamiliar location of Adelaide Oval. With all players now having had at least a 10 day break from any NRL we should expect to see a fresh set of players in what proves a pivotal game in terms of the series. Read on as we preview the teams for the opening game of the series, some of the key matchups, the recent history and provide our best bet and tip for the first try scorer come Wednesday night.
2020 State of Origin Game One Lineups
Both New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (QLD) have been forced into a couple of big changes due to both injury and tactical alterations from last year's fixtures. Unfortunately for QLD they have definitely been hit harder than NSW as they have had to make a whopping 11 changes to the side who took the field in game three of 2019. On the other hand NSW have made only seven changes to their side from this game. For the Queenslanders a bulk of their changes have been due to injuries around star players such as Kalyn Ponga, Michael Morgan and Josh McGuire as well as the retirement of some of their senior players. As a result they will hand debuts to AJ Brimson in the fullback position, Xavier Coates & Phillip Sami on the wing, Brenko Lee in the centres, Jake Friend at hooker, Tino Faasuamaleaui at lock and Lindsay Collins & Jaydn Su’a on the bench. As well as these changes Coen Hess & Jai Arrow return to the team after being absent from game three last year. For New South Wales their debuts go to Clint Gutherson in the centres, Luke Keary at five eight and Junior Paulo at prop. As well as these debutants they will also welcome back Daniel Tupou onto the wing and Cody Walker, Angus Crichton & Payne Haas onto the bench as they return from a period of time out of the NSW side. Despite both teams making a host of changes on paper the NSW side look much stronger across the board as they boast a much larger number of players who not only have origin experience but also NRL experience and come from successful sides from the 2020 NRL season.
Key Matchups
Nathan Cleary vs Daly Cherry-Evans
Probably the most important matchup will come between the two halfbacks in Nathan Cleary & Daly Cherry-Evans as both players will be tasked with steering their side around the park and controlling the pace of the game. With both players no longer being considered as origin rookies they will have the pressure to deliver at a level that is reflective of origin standards. For Cleary this will be about improving on his one try assist from last year's series and taking control of the team in the big moments, an area that he has struggled with in the past. Thankfully for NSW fans Cleary was arguably the best player in the competition this year in all but the Dally M voters eyes and was able to take his game to a new level, which was highlighted by leading his Panthers side to the grand final & leading the competition in kicks, kick metres, field goals and 40/20s. How Cleary bounces back from his grand final loss remains to be seen but he will get the perfect chance in the fierce cauldron of Origin come Thursday night. For Daly Cherry-Evans this match will be focused on serving as a leader for his hugely inexperienced QLD side. With 11 origin games now to his name he will be expected to act as the cool head on the field and they will need this through his kicking game, where he was ranked 4th & 3rd in kick metres & total kicks respectively this year, and his try assists where he was ranked 4th throughout the 2020 season. Which of these players settles first on Wednesday night will more than likely go a long way towards leading their team to victory in the all important first match.
James Tedesco vs AJ Brimson
A classic battle of the experienced superstar in James Tedesco and the inexperienced but promising rookie in AJ Brimson in the fullback position will prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of Wednesday night’s match. For NSW they know they have the games best fullback and the tried & tested Tedesco in the number one jersey and they will be extremely confident in his big game ability come Wednesday. The major question that surrounds Tedesco is how match ready he is for this week's match. Since injuring his knee in the Roosters semi final loss to the Raiders there has been major doubt over his fitness for game one. This doubt was so large that NSW had to train with Cody Walker at fullback just over a week ago and if Tedesco’s knee is a little bit underdone then it will more than likely be exposed come Wednesday night. Despite this he has been named and if he can play anywhere near the form that saw him lead the competition in tackle breaks and line break assists then NSW will be a tough side to stop. On the other hand QLD have been forced into handing Titans player AJ Brimson an origin debut after Kalyn Ponga was ruled out for the series. Brimson will be desperate for a huge performance as being touted as a future superstar for a couple of years only to struggle to get onto the field over recent seasons due to injury. Thankfully for Brimson his finish to season 2020 was so scintillating that he has earned the call up and this was largely on the back of him being a key figure in the Titans winning their last five matches and finishing an unlikely 9th on the table. If Brimson is to succeed on Wednesday then he will need to focus on his strong running game and act as the support to his two experienced halves.
Daniel Saifiti vs Josh Papalii
The final key battle comes between two players who are both origin regulars in the forwards in Daniel Saifiti and Josh Papalii. Saifiti was one of Brad Fittler’s surprise selections last year but he proved his worth in a commanding performance across the series and has cemented himself as key NSW front rower for years to come. Saifiti has also enjoyed a stellar year this year as he led the Knights to their first finals appearance since 2013. Much of Saifiti’s success came late in the season too as he returned from a knee injury that interrupted the middle part of his season. If NSW are to win on Wednesday night then they will need Saifiti to match it with arguably the games best front rower in Papalii. Papalii has been the Raiders best forward by miles this year and was the 8th best forward when it comes to run metres from this season. Where Papalii’s worth is gold is in his ability to change a match in his own hands through both his attack and defence. This was seen in his solo try against the Roosters as well as his spirited chase and ankle tap against the Titans to save a certain try. The NSW forwards will have their work cut out for them coming up against Papali and they will need to minimise his impact if they are to get the field possession they need to score points.
Recent History
In recent years the blues have been the dominant team in origin by winning the last two years under coach Brad Fittler. This was highlighted by their clutch 2-1 series win from last year where a stroke of brilliance from Mitch Pearce, Blake Ferguson and James Tedesco provided them with the match winning try in the last minute of game three. NSW will take confidence from this victory and with the core of their team remaining the same from last year then they deserve to be favourites for this one. The only major change that could cause doubt in the NSW minds is how QLD play under new coach Wayne Bennett who returns 18 years after his last origin series, which ended in a 2-1 victory to QLD. Bennett is known as a mastermind of the game and will no doubt pull out a trick or two but even with the help of the supercoach we can’t see Queensland pulling off a miracle with so many new faces in their side.
First Try Scorer
With the opening stanza of origin likely to be a tight contest then don’t be surprised to see there being minimal points through the first quarter of the match. When there is the first try of the game then we’re tipping that it’s more than likely going to be coming from the heavily favoured NSW side and from a player in the back five. In the last six origin matches a player in the back five has scored the first try in five of these matches and with Queensland boasting 4 new backline members then we’re predicting NSW will send a lot of traffic down their way in the early stages of the match. From the NSW back five we like the current odds of centre Jack Wighton. Wighton has been in electric form for the Raiders in scoring 13 tries from the halves throughout the 2020 season and he has shown that he has the capability to find holes in the defence and break the line at will.
Recommended Bet: Jack Wighton First Try Scorer $13
Best Bet
With the market currently not missing NSW then we’re struggling to see much value in them from a head-to-head point of view and with the lack of stability and experience within QLD’s team then it’s hard to go anywhere near them with any confidence come Wednesday night. Where we do seem to find a little bit of value is in the 1-12 market for NSW. In the last 10 origin series game one has been decided by 12 points or less on a whopping 9 occasions in what has traditionally been a tight contest as both teams try to figure each other out. With the minimal time to prepare for this series for a lot of the players and the wholesale changes that both sides have picked then we’re tipping this to be another close game one that will go the way of the blues.
Recommended Bet: New South Wales 1-12 $2.80
