NRL Round 5 Preview
A statement performance from last years premiers, the continued undefeated streak of last years runners up and some unfortunate injuries to some key players highlighted round four. Read on as we take a look at how the opening month of NRL has played out and what we predict will happen in Round 5.
Brisbane Broncos ($1.47) vs West Tigers ($2.70)
Thursday, 11th April 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
Not many would have predicted the Broncos to be sitting with only one win after their first four games, highlighted by a 32 point thrashing at the hands of the defending premiers, a team that they defeated twice last season. Unfortunately, this is exactly the reality for new coach Anthony Seibold who, to increase the pressure, has only 3 wins from his last 11 games in charge. Likewise, the West Tigers raced off to a 2-0 start to the year but have come crashing down to earth in recent weeks with two straight losses. On the back of this their round five meeting proves vital to both teams seasons so they can prove to their critics that they are both still a force to be reckoned with as the season progresses. For the Broncos they will be hoping that the added pressure will spark both Anthony Milford & Kodi Nikorima into a more consistent performance as they look to ignite an attack without the speed of James Roberts whilst the Tigers will need to earn their first win at Suncorp since 2016 and will be hoping for an improved attacking performance after they managed only 8 points last week. Despite the Broncos missing Tavita Pangai Junior to suspension they have enough class in their Broncos pack coupled with the home ground advantage that we believe will prove to much for the Tigers in a tight contest.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos 1-12 $2.75
Gold Coast Titans ($2.35) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.60)
Friday, 12th April 6:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
Last weeks golden point win will have the Panthers brimming with confidence as they travel up to the glitter strip to face the winless Titans, who despite welcoming back their starting halves in Ashley Taylor and Tyrone Roberts, lacked cohesion and direction in a disappointing loss to the Warriors last week. For the Titans they will be hoping that an extra week on the training paddock will help build confidence throughout virtually the same team as the only change they have made has been the dropping of Moeaki Foutaiki due to suspension. Meanwhile the Panthers have handed the fullback spot to the incumbent New Zealand international fullback, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, in a straight swap with Dylan Edwards, who moves to the wing in a look to spark an attack that has only scored 39 points across the first four rounds. Interestingly, the only team that has scored less than them this season are the team they come against in the Titans who have only managed 36 points in their first four matches. With the combination of two attacks who are struggling to click at the moment we feel that there is value in under total points market for this match as we predict a low scoring game that the Panthers should just snatch.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 38.5 $1.86
North Queensland Cowboys ($3.20) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.35)
Friday, 12th April 7:55pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
After 3 straight losses and a combined 101 points conceded for the 2015 premiers the task doesn’t get any easier as they come up against the only undefeated team in the league in the Melbourne Storm. The Storm have continued to defy their critics as they maintain their history of strong early season starts despite the departure of champion fullback Billy Slater. On the other hand he Cowboys have been disappointing to say the least as many tipped them to return to being one of the leading teams of the competition with the signing of Josh McGuire and the return to fitness of Michael Morgan. As a result of a string of poor performances Cowboys coach Paul Green has brought in Enari Tuala to make his season debut in the centres, moving Ben Hampton out to the wing, a position he has never started at in his NRL career, forcing Javid Bowen to the reserve grade. For the Storm they will be pleased to welcome back NSW blues speedster Josh Addo-Carr to the team as they look to build on a 10 game winning streak against the Cowboys. With this in mind and the Cowboys current form we feel that the Storm could make light work of the Cowboys to extend their winning streak to 11 games and hand the Cowboys a fourth consecutive loss.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm Line -7.5 $1.85
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.32) vs New Zealand Warriors ($3.40)
Saturday, 13th April 3:00pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
After an impressive opening 3 rounds from the South Sydney Rabbitohs they came crashing back to earth in a golden point loss to the Manly Sea Eagles that was rued by missed opportunities and an overall lacklustre performance by their standards. This was highlighted by the normally dead eye goal kicker Adam Reynolds missing 3 out of his 5 conversion and a huge 37 missed tackles. The Warriors, however, were able to reignite their season by making easy work of the Gold Coast Titans at home on the back of an impressive performance from captain and reigning Dally M medallist, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who had 1 try, 1 try assist and a huge 8 tackle breaks to his name. It’s important to note that this weeks fixture, despite appearing as a Rabbitohs home fixture, is being taken to the Sunshine Coast Stadium in what proves to be a neutral match and the first time that these two teams have met at the stadium in recent history. In previous meetings, Souths have won 3 of the last 4 matches but these matches have been highlighted by high scoring affairs in which 3 of the 4 have covered the total points line set for this week. To supplement this, both teams are averaging over 20 points per match this season and we predict that we are in for another high scoring affair that sees the overs line covered.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 40.5 $1.93
Newcastle Knights ($1.53) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.50)
Saturday, 13th April 5:30pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
One of the early season favourites to return to finals football, the Knights, will be hoping that they can improve on their one win out four games and make the most of their fourth home game this season before they face a streak of four out of their next five games on the road. For them to do this they will have to answer a number of critics who are questioning their ability to close out games as all of their losses have been by less than 8 points and in games that they had the opportunity to win but failed to capitalise. Against them this week are a team who are on a 2 game winning streak, including the defeat of the previously undefeated South Sydney Rabbitohs in another golden point thriller from last round. Unfortunately for the Manly Sea Eagles the man who played a large part in these two wins, Tom Trbojevic, has succumbed to yet another hamstring injury that is set to see him on the sidelines for up to 9 weeks and a major reshuffle in the Sea Eagles backline as Brendan Elliot moves back to fullback and Moses Suli comes back into the centres after being dropped for disciplinary reasons the week before. For the Sea Eagles the jury will be out on their ability to perform without Trbojevic as their first two losses of the season came without Trbojevic in the side. The Knights on the other hand welcome back James Gavet from injury and with Kalyn Ponga remaining at fullback we believe there is enough quality in this side for them to kickstart their season before a string of games on the road.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights Line -4.5 Line $1.90
Cronulla Sharks ($2.72) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.46)
Saturday, 13th April 7:35pm, Shark Park
One of the leagues developing rivalries will be on show in the prime time slot of Saturday evening in what proves to be a blockbuster match between two of the competitions heavy weights. The Roosters are looking more and more ominous as each week progresses and the return of Cooper Cronk to their lineup saw them blow the Broncos off the park in a 32 point win that was highlighted by possibly one of the greatest team tries that you will ever see. For the Sharks they were outclassed by an impressive Parramatta Eels side by 12 points but were hurt by the late withdrawals of Shaun Johnson and Paul Gallen to their side, who are both welcomed back to the starting side for this weeks match, as they hope to offset the loss of Aaron Woods to a long-term foot injury. The Roosters will also be happy to welcome back Jared Warea-Hargreaves to their starting pack in what looms as an intriguing battle between two of the competitions leading packs. The Roosters will be looking to extend the 3 match winning streak against the Sharks and with the Sharks being heavily injury ravaged we find it hard to see them stopping the competitions leading attack and the imposing form of James Tedesco who continues to control the middle of the park in an expert manner.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.80
St George Illawarra Dragons ($1.48) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.65)
Sunday, 14th April 4:05pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
The penultimate game of round 5 sees two teams who have shown drastic improvements on their performance from the opening two rounds and share a rich history of close and exciting games. The Bulldogs improvement over the last two weeks has been nothing short of remarkable as the introduction of Nick Meaney and Jayden Okunbor has brought speed and strength to their backline whilst the improvement in Lachlan Lewis and his kicking game has helped them control the game for extended periods of time. In their last match they blew the undefeated Storm off the park over the first 25 minutes as they led 12-0 and went within a botched but controversial sideline conversion from going to golden point. On the other hand, the Dragons are on the back of 2 consecutive wins on the back of 2 Corey Norman field goals as they are starting to regather the style of play that saw them threaten to be one of the leading teams in the competition last season. Unfortunately for both sides two of their form forwards and star signings for the season suffered injuries with Korbin Sims for the Dragons and Dylan Napa for the Bulldogs both out for an extended period of time. Despite this, the game shapes to be an interesting one as the Bulldogs are coming off a 38-0 victory against them in round 24 of last year and hold 7 of the last 8 victories against the Dragons. With this in mind we are keen to look at the Bulldogs line as they continue their impressive record against the Dragons.
Recommended Bet: Canterbury Bulldogs Line +6 $1.95
Canberra Raiders ($1.54) vs Parramatta Eels ($2.47)
Sunday, 14th April 6:10pm, GIO Stadium
Two teams who come into round 5 with the same record of 3 wins, 1 loss meet in the final match of the round in what shapes as an interesting battle between two of the competitions surprise packets to start the season. Both teams only loss have come against last years grand finalists and the current two sides who occupy the top of the ladder in a sign that both the Eels and the Raiders are much improved outfits from the sides that missed the finals last season. To help with their impressive form Parramatta coach Brad Arthur will be pleased that he has been able to name an unchanged side from the team that defeated last years preliminary finalists in the Sharks by 12 points. On the other hand, the Raiders look to go from strength to strength as they welcome back Joseph Tapine, a former international representative, to the bench and Aidan Sezer has been named on the extended bench as he looks to return from an oblique injury. These impressive inclusions for the home side tie in with a convincing record against the Eels that has seen them win 6 of the last 7 games against the Eels, including having not been beaten by the Eels at home in the last 8 years. With this in mind we’re leaning towards a Raiders victory in a tight contest but keep your eye on this game as it looms as the potential match of the round.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $2.80
