NRL Round 4 Preview
Round 3 of the NRL season was highlighted by 3 teams earning their first victory for 2019 in shock wins as well as 2 teams continuing their unbeaten start to the season. Read on as we take a look at round fours fixtures and cast our eye over what we predict will happen.
Sydney Roosters ($1.54) vs Brisbane Broncos ($2.45)
Thursday, April 4 8:05pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
What a matchup to start the round! Both teams are predicted to be in the running come finals time but the Roosters, after a first round hiccup against South Sydney, look a much more convincing side on the back of 2 straight wins in comparison to the Broncos who have won only one game and had a disappointing loss to the previously winless Dragons last week. Despite this the Broncos have won their last two fixtures against the Roosters, both coming last year in the Roosters premiership season, which poses an interesting story line on what is fast becoming a fierce rivalry between the two teams. For the Roosters they will be looking to turn this fortune around and will have to do so without their captain and talisman hooker Jake Friend who is out with injury but they look to welcome back champion half back Cooper Cronk in a much needed addition to their squad. The Broncos on the other hand will be without speedster James Roberts who has also succumbed to injury and will be relying on a much more consistent effort from their forwards as they struggled to back up their mammoth performance against the Cowboys. Despite the Broncos strong form against the Roosters we feel that the Roosters will continue to show their class and will earn their first victory at the Sydney Cricket Ground for 2019.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.95
New Zealand Warriors ($1.52) vs Gold Coast Titans ($2.55)
Friday, April 5 6:00pm, Mt. Smart Stadium
Two teams who have combined for just one win between them across the opening 3 rounds come together in what proves to be an important matchup for both teams seasons. The Titans put in a much improved effort last week against the undefeated Rabbitohs as they only lost by 8 points and will be delighted to welcome back star halves Ashley Taylor & Tyrone Roberts, forcing young gun AJ Brimson to the bench. On the other hand the Warriors slumped to their second straight loss against a Sea Eagles side led by the return of Tom Trbojevic in what was an embarrassing defensive performance that leaked 46 points and missed 40 tackles throughout the 80 minutes. In order to combat their disappointing effort Warriors coach Stephen Kearney has dropped young half Adam Keighran in place of Chanel Harris-Tavita who will make his debut in a move to spark their attack. With this attacking mindset and the fact that both teams have leaked a combined 155 points across 6 games we believe that the overs line is a value play this week that is well supported by 4 of the last 6 meetings between the two teams also covering the total points line this week.
Recommended Bet: Over 41.5 points $1.88
Penrith Panthers ($1.58) vs West Tigers ($2.40)
Friday, April 5 8:05pm, Panthers Stadium
If there was one game to watch this week then this would be it. Ivan Cleary, the Tigers coach of 2018, comes up against the side who many say he abandoned after building up the squad across the previous two seasons and not to mention both teams are coming off significant losses. The Panthers have won just one game this season and were convincingly defeated 32-2 by the Storm last week whilst the Tigers are coming off their first loss for 2019 against the previously winless Bulldogs in a disappointing performance that was topped off with an injury to Benji Marshall. The Panthers will be boosted by the return of boom forward Viliame Kikau who plays his first game for 2019 whilst the Tigers will replace Marshall with their 2018 star signing Josh Reynolds, a former State of Origin winning five eighth who will add another dimension to an already convincing Tigers attack. Over recent years the Panthers have been convincing in winning 7 of the last 8 times these teams have met and this will add to the pressure that young half Nathan Cleary is feeling as they look to continue this run against the Tigers. This run will be tested on the basis of their recent form and it will be interesting to see how both teams react to their defeats this week. Despite this we believe that the Panthers will be able to out muscle the Tigers with the return of Kikau and he will help reignite the Panthers season and continue their convincing run against the Tigers.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $2.80
Manly Sea Eagles ($2.65) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.48)
Saturday, April 6 3:00pm, Lottoland
Manly broke through for their first win of 2019 last week as the return of origin star Tom Trbojevic led them to a 46-12 demolition of the Warriors in Christchurch. The task for them now is to continue this form against a Rabbitohs side that are currently one of two undefeated teams remaining in the league after the first 3 rounds. To add to the difficulty of the task is the return of George Burgess to the starting lineup for the Rabbitohs and Greg Inglis who replaces the impressive Braidon Burns, who was unfortunately injured against the Titans. Souths also hold the last two wins against the Sea Eagles in their fixtures at Lottoland, a venue that was once one of the most daunting away trips for any team in the NRL. Of concern for Souths was their failure to play out a full 80 minute performance in their last two matches as they trailed the Dragons at halftime two weeks ago and let the Titans back into the game last week. With this in mind we believe that the Sea Eagles can defy the odds against them and they will be able to to cover the line provided on the back of their confidence boosting win from last week.
Recommended Bet: Manly +5.5 $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.90) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.90)
Saturday, April 6 5:30pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
Over the past 21 years the Cowboys and the Raiders have combined for one of the more even matchups across the league with the Cowboys winning 18 in comparison to the Raiders 19 across 37 battles. The 38th addition to this matchup will see the Cowboys looking to answer a number of critics questions in regards to their defence as they have leaked an enormous 71 points in their last two matches whilst the Raiders will be hoping for another composed performance from all 17 players in order to build on their convincing win against the Knights from last week. Interestingly, Cowboys coach Paul Green has remained loyal to the same 17 players who were defeated 42-16 last week whilst Ricky Stuart has followed suit in naming the same 17 from last week. The key matchup for this weeks fixture will be in the forwards as both teams boast arguable the largest two forward packs in the competition. Despite the size of both forward packs neither teams have been able to successfully convert their forwards dominance across their opening three games into points with both teams averaging just 16 points per game. With this in mind the total points line looks to be an interesting play as we predict it to be a low scoring affair.
Recommended Bet: Under 39.5 Points $1.88
Parramatta Eels ($1.90) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.90)
Saturday, April 6 7:35pm, ANZ Stadium
Despite the 32-18 scoreline saying otherwise the Eels were well and truly in the game against the defending premiers for the first 60 minutes and it was only a lack of experience in the second half that cost them a third successive win for 2019. On the other hand the Sharks seemed to go into another gear in the second half against the Cowboys as they piled on 30 unanswered points in the first 20 minutes of the second half. This victory was dampened by the loss of Matt Moylan to a hamstring injury but this injury will provide the chance for a youngster with a bright future ahead of him in Bronson Xerri to debut as Josh Dugan moves to fullback. The Eels aren’t with their own injury woes as well, with impressive young half Dylan Brown ruled out with back soreness, providing fellow youngster Jaeman Salmon with his first start for 2019. For the Sharks they will be hoping to continue a run of 5 consecutive win against the Eels whilst the Eels will be hoping that their new found attack, which has saw them average just under 25 points a game can lead them to a 3rd victory from 4 games. Despite the impressive return to form of the Eels and the loss of Moylan for the Sharks, we believe that the Sharks experience and class will lead them to their 3rd straight win for 2019.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.12) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($6.25)
Sunday, April 7 4:05pm, AAMI Park
The second of two undefeated teams in the Melbourne Storm will return home to AAMI Park after two successive wins on the road against the Raiders and the Panthers to face a team who on the back of a host of changes from coach Dean Pay achieved their first win of 2019 in convincing fashion against the Tigers. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs they have been forced into more changes with star halfback Kieran Foran being ruled out for up to 3 months with an ankle syndesmosis, which has led to the club debut of recruit Jack Cogger. For the Storm they name an unchanged team thanks to a convincing win against the Panthers where they scored 30 unanswered second half points. Despite the Bulldogs previously being somewhat of a bogey team for the Storm having won 6 consecutive matches against them between 2013-2016 the Storm have bounced back to win their last two games against them by a combined 24 points. We believe the jump in class across the park will lead the Storm to their 3rd consecutive victory against the bulldogs but the Bulldogs will be able to cover the generous handicap provided.
Recommended Bet: Canterbury Bulldogs +17.5 $1.90
Newcastle Knights ($1.73) vs St George Illawarra Dragons ($2.10)
Sunday, April 7 6:10pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
The last fixture of round four sees the Newcastle Knights come up against the St George Illawarra Dragons as they aim to defeat the Dragons for the first time in the fourth iteration of the Alex McKinnon Cup. Both teams will be hoping that the added incentive of the cup can light a spark in their season as they both sit with a disappointing one win from their opening three games. For the Knights these two losses have come by a combined 9 points in what has been a frustrating period for them and has resulted in the Kalyn Ponga experiment at five eight to be ended as he reverts back to fullback for this clash. On the other hand the Dragons lost their captain Gareth Widdop to yet another shoulder injury as Matt Dufty will come into the side to make his first start for 2019. The Dragons will be hoping that the speed of Dufty can help exploit the impressive Knights defence that has only leaked 41 points across their opening 3 games. For the Knights to win it will take them breaking a 2 game losing streak against their rivals as they have won only 1 of their last 8 matches against them. Despite this we believe that the move of Kalyn Ponga to fullback and the loss of Gareth Widdop for the Dragons will help them post a win in front of an expected sellout crowd on Sunday.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights 1-12 $2.90
