NRL Round 3 Preview
With only four teams remaining undefeated after the opening 2 rounds of the 2019 NRL season we take a look at their chances of continuing their run as well as a host of other exciting fixtures.
Brisbane Broncos ($1.37) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($3.15)
Thursday, March 28 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium
Unlike previous years the St. George Illawarra Dragons are winless after the first two rounds and are showing a mere glimpse of the early-season form that they have been known to possess under coach Paul McGregor. For the Broncos, they demonstrated a return to the level of quality that they are known to hold on the back of a dominant performance from Tevita Pangai Junior, who had 1 try, 1 line break and 6 tackle breaks to his name against the Cowboys. This weeks game also sees the Broncos get the chance to break a 2 game losing streak against the Dragons, which was highlighted by their embarrassing 48-18 defeat in their home semi final last season. The Dragons will be hoping that their forwards can recapture this form for a full 80 minutes for the first time this season in order to alleviate the pressure being placed on their new look spine. Likewise, the Broncos will be desperate for a similar performance from their depleted forward pack as they cement themselves as one of the NRLs leading contenders. Despite previous meetings we believe the Broncos will avenge their home semi final loss of last year and inflict the Dragons with their third loss in as many games.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos 1-12 $2.85
Canberra Raiders ($1.70) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.17)
Friday, March 29 6:00pm, GIO Stadium
Two teams who are both coming off a loss after round one victories will meet in the 6pm Friday time slot in what proves to be an interesting clash. The Raiders will be looking to earn their first home win for 2019 after they were defeated by the Storm on the back of a first half hatrick from strike winger Suliasi Vunivalu. The Knights on the other hand will play away from home for the first time in 2019 as they aim to bounce back from a tight 16-14 loss to the Panthers last week. Despite this being their first trip away from home for 2019 the Knights were impressive in 2018 away from home as they held a record of 5 wins and 7 losses in comparison to their home record of 4 wins, 8 losses. The Raiders on the other hand were a much stronger team at home as they won 7 out of a possible 12 games there in 2018 and hold 3 wins out of their last 4 encounters with the Knights there too. The Knights did win their last match their in 2018 in a thrilling 2 point victory in a game that saw 58 points. The interesting play for this week is the total points market as in the last 7 fixtures between these teams the total score has covered the allocated total points line for this week and we see this as massive value for this round.
Recommended Bet: Over 38.5 points $1.88
Parramatta Eels ($3.15) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.37)
Friday, March 29 8:05pm, ANZ Stadium
Not many would have thought that after two rounds the Eels would be above the defending premiers on the table and that this fixture would appear to be an encounter that could go along way towards both teams seasons. The Eels have been one of the leagues surprise packets as they have conceded only 28 points and scored 56 points themselves. These performances have been highlighted by the contribution of star signing Blake Ferguson, who faces his former teammates for the first time, and the return to form of Clint Gutherson who starred with 2 tries, 1 try assist and a line break assist last week. On the other hand, the Roosters have endured two tough, rain affected games that has seen their normal controlling and smooth style of play affected. Despite this, Luke Keary was able to cement himself as one of the games premier playmakers last week as he had 4 try assists in the first 40 minutes against the Sea Eagles. For the Roosters, much will be sweating on the return of Cooper Cronk and Jake Friend as they look to hand the Eels their first loss of 2019 whilst the Eels will be hoping to avenge their previous two meetings with the Roosters, which has seen them score an embarrassing 20 points in comparison to the Roosters 92 points. For this reason, we believe that the Roosters will continue this dominance and hand the Eels their first loss of 2019.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters -8 Line $1.90
Manly Sea Eagles ($2.30) vs New Zealand Warriors ($1.63)
Saturday, March 30 3:00pm, Christchurch Stadium
Don’t be confused by the listing of this fixture as a Manly home game as the Sea Eagles will be making the journey across to Christchurch to meet the Warriors on what is essentially their home territory. Manly’s trip across to Christchurch stadium is a repeat of their round 14 fixture in 2018 that saw the Warriors run away 34-14 winners in front of a much larger proportion of ‘away’ Warriors fans. This win saw the Warriors snap a 9 game losing streak against the Sea Eagles, which dated back to 2013, and they will be hoping to start a streak of their own and bounce back from a disappointing defeat to the West Tigers last round. However, the Sea Eagles will be hoping that the return of star NSW Blues representative Tom Trbojevic will boost a squad that showed plenty of promise in the second half of round 2 against last years defending premiers. We are predicting that the momentum with how they finished last week coupled with the boost of Tom Trbojevic will resurrect not only Manly’s dominance against the Warriors in previous years but also kickstart their season.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles $2.30
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.02) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.80)
Saturday, March 30 5:30pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
Both teams may come into their round 3 match up with the same record of 1 win and 1 loss but they will hold vastly different moods after contrasting performances in their previous round fixtures. The Sharks were dominant in their first victory of 2019 as they downed the Gold Coast Titans 20-6 in a performance led by a 2 try effort from Sione Katoa. On the other hand, the Cowboys suffered a 29-10 defeat to their arch-rivals, the Broncos, in a performance that was compounded by the Grade 3 MCL tear to 2016 Dally M medallist Jason Taumalolo. To deepen the worries of Cowboys fans the Sharks have appeared to be somewhat of a bogey team for them having lost 5 of their last 7 match ups. If the Cowboys are to overcome the Sharks it will require a performance that features much less than the 16 errors they came up with last week against the Broncos. For the Sharks they will be looking to continue their impressive defence that has seen them concede only 20 points across the first two rounds. On the back of this defence we believe that we’re in for a low scoring contest that will see the unders line prevail.
Recommended Bet: Under 36.5 points $1.88
Penrith Panthers ($2.40) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.58)
Saturday, March 30 7:35pm, Carrington Park
Two of the teams leading pre-season premiership contenders come together in round 3 in what proves to be a blockbuster matchup with both teams coming off wins. The Melbourne Storm cruised past the Raiders last round thanks to a Suliasi Vunivalu first half hatrick whilst the Panthers were inspired by arguably the best defensive effort from five eight James Maloney in recent memory, something that you don’t hear to often with Maloney. To add to the hype of the game it has been taken out to Carrington Park in Orange in a move that should produce an electric atmosphere thanks to the smaller arena. In recent times the Storm have held a successful record over the Panthers winning 6 out of the last 7 fixtures between the two teams, although the Panthers did defeat the Storm away from home last year, albeit a depleted Storm outfit. The Panthers will be hoping they can continue on from this win against the Storm and they will be boosted by the return of former origin representative Josh Mansour. Despite the return of Mansour and their impressive win we believe that the Storm will prove to clinical for the Panthers and will continue their history of early season dominance in a tight win.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.70
West Tigers ($1.46) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.75)
Sunday, March 31 4:05pm, Campbelltown Stadium
Our first fixture on Sunday sees the high flying and top of the table West Tigers come up against the struggling and bottom of the table Canterbury Bulldogs. Despite the appearance of a dull game the matches should prove an interesting forecast for the future of the Bulldogs as coach Dean Pay has swung the selection axe making 4 changes from his team across the first 2 rounds. In comes young gun Nick Meaney who makes his club debut at fullback whilst Rhyse Martin, Chris Smith and Ofahiki Ogden will make their first appearance for 2019 in the top squad. On the other end of the spectrum are the Tigers who have named an unchanged squad on the back of two wins and for the first time in the ventures history they sit on top of the ladder. The interesting stat that runs with the Bulldogs is that despite their struggles they have the fewest errors (4) and the best completion rate (83%) through the first two rounds but also find them the lowest scoring team through two rounds since 2000. On the back of these damning stats there we believe that one week isn’t enough time to resurrect their season and the Tigers will continue their strong start to the season.
Recommended Bet: West Tigers -6.5 line $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.22) vs Gold Coast Titans ($4.35)
Sunday, March 31 6:10pm, ANZ Stadium
For the second and final fixture of Sunday we again see two teams come together at contrasting ends of the table, with the undefeated South Sydney Rabbitohs facing the winless Gold Coast Titans. Unsurprisingly, the Rabbitohs have named an unchanged side after last weeks victory over the Dragons and will be looking to use the 10 day turn around to their advantage after playing in the Thursday fixture last week. On the other hand, the Titans have surprisingly named an unchanged side as they continue to wait on the return of Ashley Taylor and Tyrone Roberts to the halves. For the Titans to win they will be hoping that they can manage more than the 6 points that they have scored across 160 minutes of football whilst also stopping one of the leagues most potent attacks in the Rabbitohs. This task will be made even harder as they look to improve on a 4-8 away record from last year whilst the Rabbitohs record as the home team last year was an impressive 9-3. On the back of this we believe that the Rabbitohs will inflict a third loss on Garth Brennans team in convincing fashion.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs 13+ $1.90
