NRL Round 11 Preview
Round 10 brought us a number of possibly season defining results as the premiers lost for the first time in 2 months at the hands of a Broncos team that had regathered their mojo and the Panthers continued arguably one of the most disappointing starts to a premiership season in recent history, read on as we preview round 11.
Parramatta Eels ($1.47) vs Penrith Panthers ($2.70)
Thursday, 23rd May 7:50pm, Bankwest Stadium
The first game of round 11 sees the battle of the west with the Penrith Panthers travelling to the new spiritual home of the Parramatta Eels in a Thursday night blockbuster match. Both teams are coming off losing streaks with the Eels slumping to their second straight defeat up against the Cowboys in Townsville whilst the Panthers slumped to their 6th consecutive loss as they were embarrassed by the Warriors at home. This week the Eels will be hoping that a return to a ground that they have a 100% win record from, albeit from two matches, is enough to spark a team whose best and worst are currently too far apart for them to be considered a genuine finals football teams. For the Panthers it is another week where they will have to go back to the drawing board as another lacklustre performance in both attack and defence has seen them slump to not only the bottom of the ladder but also rank last for both attack and defence through the opening 10 rounds. Things don’t look to be getting any better for them too as incumbent NSW origin half James Maloney is facing a one week suspension and they come up against an Eels side who defeated them 20-12 at their home ground in round one of this year. With recent weeks in mind it is hard to tip a team that has looked as disinterested as the Panthers have, hence we are leaning towards the Eels to continue their 100% record at Bankwest Stadium and make it 2 from 2 in the battle of the west in 2019.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels -5.5 Line $1.80
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.50) vs Gold Coast Titans ($2.60)
Friday, 24th May 6:00pm, Lottoland
Two teams largely tipped to feature towards the bottom of the table this season have enjoyed largely different starts to their 2019 campaigns with the Manly Sea Eagles flying under the return of Des Hasler whilst the pressure is mounting on Titans coach Garth Brennan who needs results as his side slumped to a disappointing loss to the Bulldogs in a game that they should have won. Manly’s start to the season has been nothing short of spectacular as Des Hasler has completely revitalised a team who is still missing arguably their two most influential players and has led them to a 6-4 start to the season, including an impressive 24-14 win away from home against the Cronulla Sharks last week. For the Titans they are currently sliding down the ladder thanks to a four game losing streak that has seen them concede 106 points across these four losses and sacrifice some reasonably sized leads against the Sharks and the Bulldogs. This has called Garth Brennan to add Shannon Boyd and Keegan Hipgrave to the bench as Jack Stockwell drops out. Interestingly the last two times these teams met in 2018 both games had combined scores of 76 points and 52 points, which is well above the total points line of 43.5 for this weeks match and with this in mind as well as the shaky Titans defence we are happy to look at this weeks match exceeding the total points line again.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 43.5 Points $1.82
Newcastle Knights ($2.90) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.42)
Friday, 24th May 7:55pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Arguably the game of the round is brought to us in the prime time slot on Friday night as the Sydney Roosters travel up north to take on one of the form teams of the competition in the Newcastle Knights. The Roosters are coming off their first loss in two months as they went down to Brisbane 15-10 last week and things don’t look to be getting any easier for them as they take on a side who has won their last four matches to surge into 6th place on the premiership ladder. Interestingly, this surge has been led by a former Roosters star in Mitchell Pearce who is again knocking on the door of an origin recall and has been joined by a host of ex-Roosters including Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Connor Watson who will be looking to get one up on their former team. Thankfully for Roosters fans the Knights have been one of the teams that they have had a successful history against in winning 10 of their last 11 matches including their last 6 matches against the novocastrians. This weeks match sees Newcastle coach Nathan Brown take in the same 17 as last weeks impressive victory whilst for the Roosters they welcome back Australian captain Boyd Cordner to the back row and former NSW blues winger Daniel Tupou at the expense of Lindsay Collins and Ryan Hall. It’s hard to see the Roosters losing two in a row with the recall of these two big players and we are happy to lean towards the Roosters, albeit in a close match.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.80
Canberra Raiders ($1.45) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($2.75)
Saturday, 25th May 3:00pm, GIO Stadium
The first game of super Saturday see’s the North Queensland Cowboys travel south to take on the Canberra Raiders as both teams look to begin a surge up the table and stamp their authority as potential top 8 and top 4 teams respectively. The Cowboys looked to have turned a small corner in terms of their effort as they have won 2 of their last 3 games, including a 17-10 win against the Parramatta Eels, on the back of a much improved defensive performance. For the Raiders they may be on a two game losing streak but those two losses have come against arguably the two form teams of the competition in the defending premiers, the Roosters, and the ladder leaders, the Rabbitohs. Despite having a host of injuries and to the Raiders credit they were well and truly in both of those games as they lost by 6 and 4 points respectively and could have won both of them if it wasn’t for moment of individual brilliance from the opposing teams. This week sees the Raiders welcome back former New Zealand international Joe Tapine back to the bench in a pleasing addition to an already imposing forward pack whilst the Cowboys have replaced the injured Ben Hampton with speedster Gideon Gela-Mosby on the wing. The last time these two mets was a mere 6 weeks ago when the Raiders won 30-12 up at the Cowboys home ground, which extended a winning streak to 3 matches against them, and with this in mind as well as the Raiders showing in the last two weeks we are leaning towards a narrow victory for the home side.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $2.80
New Zealand Warriors ($1.85) vs Brisbane Broncos ($1.95)
Saturday, 25th May 5:30pm, Mt Smart Stadium
Plenty of eyes will be watching this game as former Broncos halfback Kodi Nikorima faces the club and the coach who let him go only 3 weeks ago in what proves to be a mouth watering clash between two teams with plenty to prove. Despite my doubts last week the Broncos appear to have turned a significant corner as they handed the defending premiers their first loss in 2 months in a 15-10 victory that was led by a significantly improved performance from their young forward pack. For the Warriors they notched up a second consecutive win in a 30-10 demolition of the Panthers as they continued their march up the table on the back of their new and improved spine. This weeks match up will see the Broncos look to avenge their 26-6 loss to the Warriors at Suncorp Stadium in round 18 of last year as well as improving on a record that has seen them win only 1 of their last 4 meetings against the Warriors. Despite their poor record against the Warriors if the Broncos can produce a performance that is even remotely close to that of last weeks against the Roosters then you feel that their forwards will lay a platform for both Milford and Dearden to go to work on and we are leaning towards a 3rd successive victory for the Broncos in 2019.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos $1.95
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.36) vs Wests Tigers ($3.15)
Saturday, 25th May 7:35pm, ANZ Stadium
For the first time since Michael Maguire’s return to the NRL he will face the team that he led to the 2014 premiership in what proves to be a blockbuster match with plenty on the line for both the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Wests Tigers. For South Sydney fans there’s not too much more that they could ask for at the beginning of the Wayne Bennett era as he has led them to 9 wins from their opening 10 games in what has been their best start to a season in over 20 years. On the other hand Wests Tigers fans will be ruing missed chances as they sit 7th with 5 wins and 5 losses after 10 rounds of play. Last week saw the Rabbitohs pull off an amazing 4 point win against Canberra in Canberra thanks to some defensive heroics from young gun Corey Allan whilst the Tigers suffered an agonising loss to the Storm in the dying minutes of a game they led by 8 points with 10 minutes to go. This week sees the Rabbitohs go in with an unchanged side as Ethan Lowe starts in the centres yet again whilst the Tigers have made one change with former Roosters player Paul Momirovski coming into the centres as Robert Jennings moves out to the wing against his former club and Mahe Fonua drops out of the starting side. In recent history Wests Tigers have dominated this contest by winning 5 of the last 7 matches but with a South Sydney team who boast the 3rd best attack in the competition coming up against a team that has conceded two scores of over 40 points this year already we are leaning towards a 7th straight Rabbitohs win for 2019.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbioths -7.5 Line $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs ($3.90) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.26)
Sunday, 26th May 2:00pm, Belmore Sports Ground
The penultimate game for round 11 sees the traditional back to Belmore clash between the Canterbury Bulldogs and the Melbourne Storm in what should be close to a sell out game at the spiritual home of the Bulldogs. Both teams are coming off impressive wins after facing early scares against their opposition last week with the Bulldogs coming from 16-0 down against the Titans away from home whilst the Storm trailed the Tigers by 8 points with 10 to go only to come back and win by 2 points thanks to a late Will Chambers try. This weeks clash sees the second time that the two teams have met in 2019 with their first clash coming in round 4 where the Dogs raced out to 12-0 lead only to be run down by the Storm and were a Rhyse Martin sideline conversion away from sending the game into golden point. Both teams have made changes due to injuries this week as Jayden Okunbor is replaced by Christian Crichton on the wing and Jahrome Hughes returns to fullback as Ryan Papenhuyzen moves to the bench and Christian Welch drops out due to a knee injury. Despite the hype around the back to Belmore clash for the Bulldogs it is hard to tip against the Storm as they look to extend their 3 game winning streak against the Bulldogs and we are predicting they do just that.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 13+ $2.26
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.85) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.95)
Sunday, 26th May 4:05pm, WIN Stadium
What a game to finish off round 11 as both the St. George Illawarra Dragons and the Cronulla Sharks will be eager to avenge last weeks performances, which saw them both slump to disappointing defeats against teams that, on paper, they should have performed much better against. For the Dragons they are currently sliding down the table rapidly as they have lost four straight matches, highlighted by a 45-12 loss to the Knights last week, and have dropped down to 12th place after putting together four consecutive wins. On the other hand, the Sharks have been tough to get a read on as they were on a two game winning streak coming into round 10 but lost to Manly 24-14 last week and continued their worst record against any team where they have lost 9 of their last 10 games. This weeks record also appears ominous for them as the Dragons have won 4 of the last 5 matches, including the last 2 matches at WIN stadium and both games against the Sharks last year. For the Sharks they will hope that Matt Moylan will be a late inclusion as he is named on the extended bench whilst the Dragons have swung the selection axe by dropping live wire fullback Matt Dufty, winger Mikaela Ravalawa and Josh Kerr in place of Jonus Pearson, Reece Robson and Korbin Sims as Euan Aitken returns to the starting side and Zac Lomax shifts to fullback. Whether these changes can stop the Dragons slide remains to be seen but we are leaning towards a return to form for the Sharks on the back of a strong performance from their more experienced forward pack.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks $1.95
