State of Origin 2018 kicks off on Wednesday night at the historic MCG, and there is a very different feel to this year’s series in comparison to the last decade. Despite winning 11 of the last 12 series, Queensland will start as unloved outsiders this year after the retirements of Cameron Smith, Jonathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk. Never have we witnessed such monumental change in the leadership of a team, and their absence gives NSW their best chance of winning since 2014, their only victory since 2005.
The Teams
Despite losing the three champions, the Maroons still boast a wealth of experience in comparison to their rivals. Billy Slater* will start his final Origin series in the number 1 jumper, rightfully his again after missing out on Game 1 last year. Dane Gagai has been outstanding in his short Origin career, and was a certain pick on the right wing, to be partnered by Melbourne centre Will Chambers, another who has taken to Origin like a duck to water. On the left, new captain Greg Inglis makes his return after injury kept him sidelined in 2017, while Valentine Holmes won the battle for the left wing spot over Corey Oates and Darius Boyd. Holmes’ devastating finishing ability, coupled with his handy goal kicking, were the decisive factors in his favour. In the halves, Cameron Munster holds the number 6 jersey after his outstanding debut last year, while Ben Hunt’s form this year for the Dragons was too good ignore for Kevin Walters.
*Billy Slater was a withdrawal from the line up on Wednesday owing to a hamstring injury. Kayln Ponga and Anthony Milford have been drafted into the Maroons squad while Michael Morgan has been named his replacement at fullback.
Up front, a changing of the guard, with Dylan Napa and Jarrod Wallace bookending new hooker Andrew McCullough. With no Smith or Matt Scott, there will be huge pressure on these three to get the Maroons on the front foot early. Gavin Cooper and Felise Kaufusi come into the second row in differing form, with Cooper’s Cowboys struggling in comparison to Kaufusi’s rise. At lock, Josh McGuire will line up without a club game under his belt, but it was felt he was worth the risk given his status as Queensland incumbent. On the bench, Michael Morgan will have the utility role, while Coen Hess, Josh Papalii and rookie Jai Arrow complete the 17.
For the Blues, it is case of out with the old and in with the new. Brad Fittler has discarded some long term NSW mainstays, subscribing to the theory that if you keep doing what you’ve always done, you’ll keep getting what you’ve always got. So no Josh Dugan, no Blake Ferguson, no Aaron Woods, no Wade Graham. In come 11 Origin rookies and a load of excitement south of the Tweed. James Tedesco has held his spot at fullback, one of NSW’s best in 2017. On the wings, both Josh Addo-Carr and Tom Trbojovic make their debuts, as do Latrell Mitchell and James Roberts in the centres. If there has ever been a faster Origin backline selected, it is hard to remember it. There might be some defensive frailties, but there is no shortage of strike power. The Penrith halves have been picked together, with James Maloney patterning the future of the Blues, Nathan Cleary. Every eye will be on Cleary as he makes the leap to representative football, but everything he has shown so far indicates he is more than ready.
In the forwards, David Klemmer has survived the cull, and is joined by man mountain Reagan Campbell-Gillard in the front row. Diminutive hooker Damien Cook won the battle with Cameron McInnes for the number 9, and he will be a danger man for the Maroons. Captain Boyd Cordner held his spot despite criticism from Phil Gould, while Tyson Frizell was a certain pick. Jack De Belin has been rewarded for a strong start to the season with his debut at lock, rounding out a very new look starting 13. On the bench, Tyrone Peachey will be injected at some stage to run amok, with Jake Trbojevic joined by another couple of rookies, Paul Vaughan and young Angus Crichton. This a brave new era for the Blues, a team built on speed, power and all-out attack. It makes for a fascinating match up.
The Match Ups
There are mouth-watering match ups all over the field for Origin 1, with a lot of questions we won’t know the answers to until Wednesday night. Most pundits are assuming the Blues forwards will be too strong up front for the Maroons, and they certainly bring speed and power that will test the Queenslanders. Both teams sport brand new hookers, and McCullough and Cook bring very different styles to the game. Expect Cook to look for opportunities to run from dummy half whenever one of forwards bends the Queensland line. McCullough, on the other hand, will be more circumspect, making his usual 50 tackles while looking to feed his halves when he can sense the Blues are on the back foot. Neither team carries a specialist hooker on the bench, so expect both to play the entire 80 minutes.
Out wide, the clashes are both exciting and intriguing. Greg Inglis and Valentine Holmes match up against James Roberts and Josh Addo-Carr, while on the other side of the field Will Chambers and Dane Gagai meet Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic. The Blues boast electrifying speed and blistering footwork, which the Maroons will try to counter with big bodies and strong defence. While the Blues undoubtedly have points in them, they also have mistakes in them, and expect the Queensland centres to be out of the line quickly and in the faces of their opponents early. If Inglis lands a big early shot on Roberts, expect a long night for the Jet.
So much of this result, though, rests on the respective halves combinations. Munster and Maloney have been in great firm this year, but have also been picked on the strength of past performances, while Hunt and Clearly have demanded selection on the back of outstanding club form this year. The Blues pair work together every week, and this will surely settle the nerves for Cleary, who will be under instruction to play the same game he has been playing for Penrith. He has been outstanding since returning from injury, and while he was away Maloney was the form half in the NRL. Together, they have all bases covered. The Maroons, on the other hand, have some unknowns. Both Hunt and Munster are running halves, exceptionally dangerous with ball in hand, but neither overly comfortable managing the game for their team. Hunt has benefited from playing with Gareth Widdop this year, who does a lot of organising for him, allowing him to play to his strengths. Munster does not play vide the same security, so making sure Queensland has effective last tackle options and steering the team around the field will be the greatest challenge for these two.
The Stats that Matter
Queensland has lost 103 games of State of Origin experience with the retirements of Smith, Thurston and Cronk. This cannot be underestimated, especially given the positions in the spine these three operated in for so long. On the other hand, Brad Fittler has 11 players who have yet to taste Origin football, and you can guarantee that the first 20 minutes will fly past a lot of these players without them realising.
The Blues will claim a home ground advantage at the MCG, having won 3 of the 4 games played at the famous stadium. They will know how important this one is, because they won't want to be going to Brisbane for game 3 with the series still on the line. The last time the two teams met at the MCG was Game 2 in 2015, with the Blues winning 26-18.
It almost passed us by without acknowledgement last year, but the Maroons are sitting on three series wins a row, a fear that was lauded in the past but has paled into insignifance on the back of winning 11 of the last 12 series. It was this three-peat which surely cost a number of NSW players their spots this year.
Perhaps the most important stat, though, is the fact the NSW have two halves who both kick goals at over 80%, while the Maroons don't have a first choice kicker anywhere in their line-up. Valentine Holmes will most likely be given the duties, but in an arena that so often comes down to marginal victories, this weakness has the potential to cost Queensland dearly.
The Analysis
The Blues ($1.52) are strong favourites for Game 1, and to take the series, which seems odd given the number of rookies and the recent series wins for Queensland ($2.60). The punters sense that the loss of the three Queensland champions will be too much to overcome for the Maroons, and that makes sense given their importance to the team's recent dominance.
On paper, the Blues look to have the advantage in the forwards, while the Maroons have an edge in experience and reliability in the outside backs. If these two aspects cancel each other out, then it all comes down to the halves. Given their club combination and superior all around games, the Blues have a slight edge here as well, and that might be just enough to get them home, particularly if goal kicking is crucial. Origin isn't won on paper, though, and the Queenslanders will relish being underdogs once again. If their forwards can break even against the NSW pack, expect the running games of Hunt and Munster to create havoc, and Inglis to step up and dominate in the absence of their long time leaders. If the NSW forwards fire, though, the Queenslanders will be out on their feet early and will struggle to keep up. One thing is for certain, though. State of Origin never fails to surprise, or deliver.
Betting
NSW $1.52
QLD $2.60
Line +/-5.5 $1.91
Total Points
Over 34.5 $1.87
Under 34.5 $1.93
Words: Cam Stokes
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