NRL Grand Final Preview: The stats that matter
Who would have thought that the week heading into the past three NRL Grand Finals the word 'fairytale' would be so relevant?
2014 saw the South Sydney Rabbitohs claim their first premiership since 1971.
2015 saw Jonathan Thurston win his first premiership ring since 2004 after years of finals heartbreaks.
Now, 2016 will see the Cronulla Sharks claim their long awaited maiden premiership, or the Storm will continue to stake their claim as the most dominant team of the 21st century.
Nonetheless, the 2016 Telstra Premiership Grand Final boasts two star studded line ups that are well deserved to be the two best teams of the season. The Minor Premiers have been the most consistent team this year with the dynamic combo of Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith contributing 38 tries between them, whilst the Sharks amazing run of 15 straight victories has set themselves the perfect platform for a charge at the NRL premiership. In saying that, out of the 10 biggest winning streaks in rugby league history - 9 of them have gone on to win the grand final that year, with the only team failing to do so being the over-the-cap Canterbury Bulldogs in 2002. (Excluding Cronulla 2016)
An alarming statistic that may hurt the eyes of Cronulla fans may be the fact that since the top eight era began in 1999, only one top four team has gone on to win the grand final when winning less than three of their last five regular season games.
Sharks’ victory over the Sydney Roosters in round 25 was their only win since round 22, with losses to the Raiders, Dragons, Rabbitohs and Storm ruining their chances of a top 2 finish at seasons end.
While we could sit and talk all week about the potential for both teams to lift the Provan-Summons trophy come Sunday night, it has been made clear over the years that the best team on paper isn't always the significant indicator that will determine who wins the final game of the year.
When discussing all things sport, we're not wrong in saying that statistics only ever tell half the tale when looking at sporting teams. Ignore it if you may, but it's hard not to relish the outstanding defensive efforts of the Melbourne Storm this season; conceding just two tries per game whilst also boasting the best defensive record since the 2010 premiers in the St George Illawarra Dragons (299 points after 26 rounds).
On the other side of the spectrum is one of the most lethal attacking teams in the competition, with the Sharks averaging the second-most tries per game (4.6), with their lethal back three of Ben Barba, Sosaia Feki and Valentine Holmes scoring 48 tries between them. If you’re having money on someone to score a try during the 80, it best be one of these three.
Key Match Up
Ben Barba vs Cameron Munster
Two of the form fullbacks of 2016, both Barba and Munster have contributed significantly to their teams success on the field throughout the season. Whether it’s setting up tries or scoring themselves, they have been instrumental in being potent attacking weapons for their respective teams.
One of the success stories of the year in Ben Barba, some may say he has found the form that won him the Dally M Medal as the games best player in the 2012 season. He has crossed the line 15 times this season, on 5 occasions scoring the first of the game, whilst also being the provider on a further 18 times this year, the most of anyone in his team and second most of any fullback in 2016.
In the absence of Billy Slater, Storm fans are not fearful for life after one the games greatest fullbacks with the form of Munster in 2016. Despite only crossing the line 4
times throughout his 23 games this year, he has managed to provide 12 try assists which is the 6th most in the fullback role this year. One thing is for certain is that a key contributor to the Storms battle for field position will rely heavily on the kick returns of Munster, where he sits second in the competition at 1162 metres – invaluable for any team trying to earn themselves some attacking raids.
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Storm Key Man: Cooper Cronk[/caption]
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Sharks Key Man: James Maloney[/caption]
Without a doubt the signing of the year, James Maloney has proved to be one of the games best five eighths with another stellar season in his first year under Shane Flanagan. Moving on from a successful stint with the Roosters, ‘Jimmy’ will be the one calling the shots on Sunday night as he attempts to claim his second premiership ring and Cronulla’s first in their history. He was a key reason why the Warriors made the 2011 grand final and he also managed to lead the Roosters to premiership glory in 2013 whilst also making the Grand final in his first year at Cronulla. Coincidence? Surely not.
Despite a dip in his numbers from recent seasons, Maloney has fit in seamlessly with the Sharks and has formed a lethal combination with halfback Chad Townsend as they have provided a host of tries throughout 2016.
He has managed to find form just at the right time, coming off arguably his best game the year with a man of the match performance in the Sharks’ preliminary final against the Cowboys. Maloney crossed for two tries, and contributed 2 line breaks, 1 line break assist, 1 try assist and a remarkable 20 points of his team total 32. He will no doubt be looking for a similar performance in the decider on Sunday.
Opposite Maloney stands one of the greatest players of the modern era, Cooper Cronk. He has had another outstanding season, and could be on the verge of another Dally M Medal if he can withstand the charge of Raiders dynamo Josh Hodgson and his own skipper Cameron Smith. He rates second in the competition for try assists (23), while he has crossed for 12 tries himself - the most of any halfback in 2016.
With one of the best kicking games in the comp, Cronk has managed to crack over 7000 kicking metres. This will enable the Storm to get the upper hand in the battle for field position considering the enormous oppsoition forward pack featuring the likes of Gallen and Fifita carrying a wave of momentum into the Grand Final.
Where the money lies: Out of the 17 victories Cronulla has managed this year 10 of them have been 1-12, with the Storm having lost by 13 points or more only once this year. The value could well be with Cronulla 1-12 ($3.10).
First Try Scorer: Ben Barba ($15). Hasn’t scored recently but will be looking to break the drought on the games biggest day.
Clive Churchill Medalist: Paul Gallen ($10). The inspirational Sharks and Blues skipper to lead his side to premiership glory. He’ll have plenty of touches, eat up plenty of metres and won’t take a backward step.
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The Final Word: It may be hard to look past the Storm considering their brick wall defence, however there seems to be a wave of momentum with the Sharks this year. Cronulla by 2 in one of the great Grand Finals.
Match Officials:
Lead and Assistant Referee: Matt Cecchin and Ben Cummins.
Senior Review Official: Bernard Sutton
Review Officials: Luke Patten and Ashley Klein
Touch Judges: Jeff Younis and Brett Suttor
Venue: ANZ Stadium. (Kick off 8pm. Live on Channel 9 and Fox Sports 1)
Words: Andre Cupido
