New England Patriots v Indianapolis Colts
Friday, October 5 10:20am at Foxborough
The week of NFL action starts in Foxborough as the Patriots take on the Colts. New England comes into this game as the overwhelming favourite based on their record over the Colts and last week. Taking on the previously undefeated Dolphins, New England absolutely dominated in a 31 point crushing win. After two poor showings in Detroit and Jacksonville, the Patriots showed their class. Tom Brady threw 3 touchdown passes and the Pats backfield ran riot. Michel picked up 125 yards on the ground and James White was unstoppable in coverage. Meanwhile, the Colts travel to New England with a 1-3 record and a few injury concerns. Their top receiver T.Y Hilton could miss and that will hurt this offence. It’s likely Andrew Luck will need to outplay Brady in the air and that doesn’t get any easier without his favourite passing target. While for Brady, he gets Edelman back from suspension and a knee injury. But there is some concern for TE Gronkowski’s ankle. So I do see a fairly low scoring game as the Patriots defence looks to be back. They held the Fins to 0 points at the half last week and have controlled both home games thus far. So I’m liking the under 52.5 points. Both of the Colts road games have finished under 40 points as they do struggle to score points outside compared to the friendly dome conditions in Indianapolis.
Stadium Record
New England is 2-0 at home this season and have won both by 7 or more. The Colts have lost back to back playoff games here since 2014.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Patriots are 7-0 against the Colts and 5-0 when they meet at this venue.
Best Bet
Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Rams
Monday, October 8 6:25am at Seattle
The LA Rams are looking like the best team in Football after a 4-0 start. This offence is scoring 30+ in every game so far and I don’t see them slowing down against Seattle. Last season, the Rams thrashed them 42-7 at this venue and their offence is actually better in 2018. Which is mainly thanks to the speed of Brandin Cooks in the passing game. Jared Goff is looking settled under centre and the playoff experience last year was probably a bonus. While for the Seahawks, they scraped home against the poor Cardinals last week in a 3 point win. Which isn’t a great sign when you have to try and stop the best offence in the NFL. Seattle’s main problem is keeping QB Wilson upright and the Rams defensive line is going to be a handful. So in the end, the Rams have not lost at the line this year and I’ll continue to suggest betting on them in this kind of form.
Stadium Record
In Seattle, the Seahawks won their home opener 24-13 over the Cowboys. LA travelled here in 2017 and were comfortable winners 42-7.
Head to Head Record
Since 2015, the Rams hold a 4-2 advantage over the Seahawks.
Best Bet
Houston Texans v Dallas Cowboys
Monday, October 8 10:20am at Houston
Monday’s feature game sees an all Texas affair with the Houston Texans battling the Dallas Cowboys. The Texans return home after a 3 point win over the Colts in Indy, which gave them their first victory of the year. They will look to rebound after a 27-22 loss in their home opener against the Giants. Dallas on the other hand beat the Lions by 2 points at home. They rebounded from a 24-13 loss in Seattle. In both their road games so far, low scoring has been the trend and I’m expecting a similar story here. In those road games, they’ve conceded just 10.5 points per game. When the Texans and Cowboys meet, the under is trending. The last clash was back in 2014 and the Cowboys won 20-17. So I do like the under total of 46.5 points. Which also saluted in the last meeting at this venue (40 total points). So far this year, Dallas ranks 30th for points scored and also 30th for pass yards. But defensively, they rank strongly for pass yards and rush yards allowed. Which should see them contain the Texans top 10 offence. Houston’s rush defence is ranked 9th in the NFL and that should help them stop the Dallas running game.
Stadium Record
Houston last played here in 2014 and lost 20-17. Dallas has won both home games thus far in season 2018.
Head to Head Record
Dallas is 3-1 overall against the Texans since 2002. They’ve also won the last 2 meetings since 2010.
Best Bet
New Orleans Saints v Washington Redskins
Tuesday, October 9 10:15am at New Orleans
After 3 straight wins, the New Orleans Saints are back at home and looking for a 4-1 record before the bye. Last week, Brees and his offence were too good as they beat the Giants 33-18. They have been a bit inconsistent at home with a 3 point win over the Browns and letting the Bucs score 48 points in their home opener. So I think the Redskins will be a tough opponent. They had the bye in Week 4 and hold a 2-1 record. In back to back home games, they beat the Packers 31-17 but lost to the Colts 21-9. However, they do have a good record when they play the Saints. They’ve won 2 of the last 3 and that really should be 3-0. Last year, they gave up 18 points in the 4th quarter and the Saints won in overtime 34-31. So I like the chances of this becoming another high scoring game. In the 3 meetings since 2012, all of them have covered the total points of 50.5. This season, 2 of 4 games involving the Saints have seen a massive total of 80 or more points. Washington is averaging 39 points per game when they take on the Saints. Now this season, the Saints defence isn’t showing great signs. They especially rank lowly for pass yards allowed and Redskins QB Alex Smith can take advantage. While for the Saints, their combination of Brees, Kamara and Thomas is looking dangerous once again. Not to mention, key cornerback for the Redskins in Josh Norman is battling a hamstring. So take the overs here.
Stadium Record
The Saints are 1-1 at home in 2018. Washington holds a 1-1 record in New Orleans since 2012.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Redskins are 2-1 against the Saints. But New Orleans won the last meeting 34-31.
Best Bet
Other NFL Week 5 Tips:
| Game | Date / Time (AEST) | Venue | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills | Monday, October 8 3:00am | Buffalo | Bills +5.5 $1.70 |
| Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals | Monday, October 8 3:00am | Cincinnati | Bengals -5.5 $1.80 |
| Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | Monday, October 8 3:00am | Detroit | OVER 48.5 points $1.70 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns | Monday, October 8 3:00am | Cleveland | OVER 46.5 points $1.82 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs | Monday, October 8 3:00am | Kansas City | UNDER 50.5 points $1.78 |
| Denver Broncos at New York Jets | Monday, October 8 3:00am | East Rutherford | Broncos WIN $1.98 |
| Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | Monday, October 8 3:00am | Pittsburgh | Falcons +3.5 $1.80 |
| New York Giants at Carolina Panthers | Monday, October 8 3:00am | Carolina | Panthers -6.5 $1.87 |
| Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Monday, October 8 6:05am | Carson | Raiders +6.5 $1.82 |
| Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles | Monday, October 8 6:25am | Philadelphia | UNDER 46.5 points $1.74 |
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | Monday, October 8 6:25am | Santa Clara | UNDER 42.5 points $1.80 |
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