NFL Week 12 Predictions and Betting Preview

New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons

Thanksgiving Football concludes with an NFC South clash as the Falcons attempt to stop the red-hot Saints. Led by Drew Brees, the Saints have now won 9 straight games and look pretty much unstoppable on offence. Last week, they smashed a good Eagles defence in a 48-7 victory. Over their last 3 wins alone, they've scored 45+ points and the defence has allowed a total of 21 points in the last 2 games. So this matchup with the Falcons defence looks like another thrashing is on the cards. Atlanta is giving up 284 passing yards per game and that ranks near the bottom of the NFL. They've also been poor offensively in this 2 game losing streak, going down to the Cowboys at home and Browns on the road. Earlier this season, the two sides played in a high scoring battle with the Saints getting the job done 43-37. So while I see the Saints winning this game, there's some value at the line for the Falcons. In 7 of their of their 10 games this season, the margin has finished under 10 points and that includes a 6 point margin in the last clash. The last 4 meetings between the two sides has also been decided by 10 or less points. It's a divisional clash and that usually means a closer game. The key will be Matt Ryan exposing the Saints pass D, which is fairly similar in rankings compared to the Falcons. Atlanta is a top 10 offence at this point, scoring 26 points per game. So they should be able to keep up with Brees and the Saints in a high scoring affair.

Stadium Record

New Orleans are 4-0 at home and 4-1 overall this season. Atlanta last travelled to New Orleans in 2017 and they lost 23-13 in Week 16.

Head to Head Record

The Saints have won the last 2 clashes by under 11 points. Since 2016, the head to head is tied at 3-3.

Best Bet

Falcons +15.5 $1.65

Indianapolis Colts v Miami Dolphins

An intriguing clash in the late window on Monday will be two 5-5 team's in action. The Colts will take on the Dolphins and both sides need a win to keep up with their divisional rivals. The home side is hitting form after a 1-5 start to the season. They've now rattled off 4 straight wins and behind Andrew Luck, the offence has found form. They've scored 29 or more points in all 4 of those wins and the defence has also stepped up. They kept the Titans to 10 points in their latest home victory, which came after the Titans had just smashed the Patriots. Miami is having an inconsistent season, which has really been cruelled by injury. They're coming off the bye and lost 31-12 in Green Bay last time out. The good news is QB Ryan Tannehill is back under centre and he'll look to get the Dolphins offence back on track. They've scored just 25 total points in their last 2 games and they will need points against the Colts in this matchup. The betting is favouring the Colts and it's hard to argue. However, I do think the line is fairly high and this game should go unders. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between the two sides and the highest total since 2012 is just 44 points. The Colts D should be able to contain a Dolphins offence that is struggling to the move the ball. The Dolphins D is a bit concerning, but hopefully with their season pretty much on the line, they stand up and stop Andrew Luck's offence.

Stadium Record

The Colts are 3-0 at home and beat the Titans 38-10 last week. Miami last played here in 2013 and won 24-20.

Head to Head Record

The last meeting was back in 2015 and the Colts won 18-12 in Miami. Overall since 2012, the Colts lead 2-1.

Best Bet

UNDER 52.5 points $1.76

Minnesota Vikings v Green Bay Packers

Monday's feature game will again showcase two NFC North rivals. In Minnesota, the Vikings 5-4-1 will face the 4-5-1 Packers. The two sides played in a 29-29 tie earlier this season and hopefully this is another tight contest. Starting with the Vikings, they played in this timeslot last week and couldn't get past the Bears in a 25-20 defeat. But, they're a better home side with a 3-2 record and they've won 4 of the last 5 against Green Bay. The Packers are back from a long rest as they played in Seattle on Friday and just went down 27-24. It's been an inconsistent season thus far and they'll need to find form quickly if they're looking to make the playoffs. The key to this game will be which defence stops Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins. Each defence is ranked in the top 6 for pass yards allowed so that says this should be another close battle between these two teams. So while the Vikings are favourites at home, I do like the Packers to keep this close. They've played in a number of close games on the road recently (Rams & Seahawks) and I see a similar result coming in Minnesota this week.

Stadium Record

The Vikings won 24-9 over the Lions in their last home game and hold a 3-2 record in Minnesota this season. Green Bay lost 23-10 in the last meeting here (without Aaron Rodgers).

Head to Head Record

In Week 2, the Packers and Vikings played in a 29-29 tie. Since 2016, the Vikings lead the head to head 4-1.

Best Bet

Packers +5.5 $1.70

Houston Texans v Tennessee Titans

Week 12 ends with a crucial AFC South battle with the 7-3 Texans up against the 5-5 Titans. Houston is one of the hottest team's in the NFL after 7 straight wins. It's hard to remember they started 0-3! Over the last 2 weeks, they've got the job done by 2 points over the Redskins and Broncos on the road. They enjoy home field advantage with 3 straight wins and a 42-23 trashing of the Dolphins in Week 8. After 2 straight victories and a 34-10 crushing win over the Patriots, the Titans followed that performance with a stinker. They were no match for the Colts in Indy as they lost 38-10. So it's hard to know which Titans team is going to turn up. But they do have a good record against the Texans, having won 3 of the last 4 meetings. But in Houston, the Texans are 6-0 against the Titans since 2012. The two sides met in Nashville in Week 2 and the Titans were victorious 20-17. Overall, the last 2 meetings have seen just 37 total points in each so I like the chances of this staying in the unders category. Both sides are desperate to win the AFC South and that should see defence rule this matchup. The Texans are 4-1 against the under in their last 5 overall games. Meanwhile, the Titans were kept to 10 points on the road in their latest and still only score 17.8 points per game in 2018.

Stadium Record

The Titans won a close encounter in Week 2, 20-17. They've won the last 2 meetings and hold a 3-1 record since 2017.

Head to Head Record

Houston holds a 3-1 home record this season. The Titans last played here in Week 4 of last season and lost 57-14.

Best Bet

UNDER 46.5 points TBA

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