New England travel to Baltimore as one of the AFC’s most complete teams, but the Ravens are deseperate to keep their season alive.
New England Patriots (11-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
The Pats winning streak ended at the hands of the Bills last week 35-31, so they'll be keen to get back on track. New England’s profile is built for playoff football because they are strong across the board rather than relying on one phase to carry them. They score 27.3 points per game while allowing just 19.7. The defensive foundation is particularly strong against the run, giving up only 95 rush yards per game (5th), which matters against a Baltimore team that wants to control the clock. They also travel extremely well, sitting 6-0 on the road.
Baltimore comes off an easy win over the Bengals, but this will be much tougher. They average 146 rushing yards per game, and when they are playing their preferred script, they can shorten the game and keep opponents off rhythm. The issue is that the passing side is a major worry, with just 178 pass yards per game ranked 27th, and their pass defence has been vulnerable, allowing 233 pass yards per game. The home record is also a concern at 3-5, especially against a Patriots team that has been perfect on the road.
Leg #1 - 250+ Passing Yards: Drake Maye
Maye has cleared 250 passing yards in six of his last seven games. His recent road performances have been strong, throwing for 294 against the Bengals and 270 against the Buccaneers in his last two away starts. Baltimore’s pass defence is ranked 26th by yards allowed at 233 per game, and Maye should take full advantage.
Leg #2 - Anytime Touchdown Scorer: TreVeyon Henderson
Henderson scored two rushing touchdowns last week against the Bills and has recorded 10 or more carries in seven straight games. He has also scored two touchdowns in three of his last five games, showing both opportunity and finishing ability near the goal line.
Leg #3 - Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Derrick Henry
Henry is Baltimore’s most direct path to points, and the matchup logic supports at least one strong red zone chance. New England gave up two rushing touchdowns last week, and Henry has produced four rushing touchdowns across his last five games. He is also still handling the type of workload that creates scoring probability, highlighted by 25 carries in his last home game against the Steelers.
Same Game Multi
Value Leg - Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Zay Flowers
Flowers caught a touchdown last game against the Bengals and saw 11 targets in his last home game. New England’s pass defence is solid but not dominant, ranked 15th by yards allowed, and gave up three passing touchdowns against Buffalo last week. With Lamar Jackson throwing three touchdowns in his last two games, there is a realistic path to a Baltimore passing score, and Flowers profiles as the most likely receiver to benefit from any red zone looks or broken play opportunities.
