Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Chicago Bears (3-1)
It's Tom Brady versus Nick Foles this Friday but in much different circumstances compared to their Super Bowl meeting a few years ago. After a slowish start with the Bucs, Tom Brady is looking like the GOAT once again and he's coming off a 5 touchdown / comeback victory over the Chargers last week. But the other impressive part about the Bucs is their continued excellence against the run as they rank 2nd in the league for yards allowed. So Nick Foles will need to beat them in the air. His first official start for the Bears wasn't pretty as the Colts defence completing stopped the Bears running game in last weeks 19-11 loss. So Chicago will need to find a way of creating space against another elite run D in the Bucs. Overall, this does feel like it should be a shootout between Brady and Foles. The Bucs are coming off a 69 point total against the Chargers and have a 15-3 Overs record. Meanwhile, the Bears should have better scoring opportunites against this Bucs pass defence.
Stadium Record
Chicago is 4-2 at home but just 1-4 ATS. The Buccaneers have an awful record in Chicago with just 5 wins in their last 25.
Head to Head Record
The two sides last met in 2018 and the Bears came away with a 48-10 victory. Since 2004, Chicago is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings.
Best Bet
Indianapolis Colts (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (3-1)
Don't look now, the Browns are finally starting to fulfil their potential! After a 3-1 start, this is simply a crucial home game on Monday morning against the 3-1 Colts. Cleveland won their 3rd straight last week after smashing the Cowboys 49-38. Beckham Jnr totalled 3 touchdowns in his best performance for the Browns thus far. But they will miss the services of Nick Chubb in the running game. Meanwhile, the Colts are probably the more surpising team at 3-1 after losing to Jaguars in Week 1. Their 3 game winning streak has been built by their defence. Overall, they're the best team in the league against the pass and have allowed just 14 points per game. So we have a great defensive team in the Colts up against the Browns offence that's scoring 31 points per game. So we feel like defence will win out, especially with the Browns missing key RB Nick Chubb. So the Under does look the better bet. It's 5-2 when these two sides meet and the Colts also have a 5-2 Unders record in their last 7 games.
Stadium Record
Cleveland has won 6 of their last 7 home games. Indianapolis is a perfect 5-0 at this venue since 1999.
Head to Head Record
In the last meeting, the Colts won by a field goal 31-28 in 2017. They have a great record against the Browns with 8 wins in the last 9 meetings.
Best Bet
Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)
The Vikings are finally on the board in season 2020 but it won't get any easier against the undefeated Seahawks in Seattle. After starting 0-3, Minnesota had to beat the Texans and that's exactly what they did in the 31-23 result. The key to their success is Dalvin Cook in the running game and he's coming off back to back 100+ rushing days with 6 touchdowns on the season. But the concern for the Vikings will be their 29th ranked pass defence against the red-hot Russell Wilson. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are flying after a 4-0 start and Wilson is in career best form. He's tossed 16 touchdowns in 4 games and he's led them to 35.5 points per game. While on the defensive side, the Seahawks are the 3rd best team against the run in terms of yards so that'll give them confidence against Cook. In the end, the odds are really stacked against the Vikings here. Their pass D is pretty bad and they don't have a great record at this venue (1-6). So we can't go past the Seahawks by a touchdown as Wilson is simply a class above at the moment.
Stadium Record
The Seahawks are 11-4 at home and have beaten the Cowboys/Patriots at this venue this season. Minnesota is 1-6 at this venue since early 2000.
Head to Head Record
Seattle won last season's meeting 37-30 and have a 7-3 record since 2003.
Best Bet
Los Angeles Chargers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)
The Saints ended a 2 game losing streak with a crucial 35-29 victory over the Lions in Detroit last week. After falling behind 14-0, Drew Brees led the way in the 2nd quarter with 2 TD passes and the Saints running game looked strong between Kamara/Murray (3 tds). The defence also continues to play well against the run. For the Chargers, despite a 3 game losing streak, they've been in every game. Last week's loss would be the most disappointing after leading Brady's Bucs 24-7. But the Chargers aren't the only team to suffer a Brady comeback as they went down 38-31. The loss was also compounded by a hamstring injury to important RB Austin Ekeler. But Justin Herbert continues to play well and added 3 TD passes last week. Ultimately, we always like the Overs with the Saints in-play, especially on their home turf. As such, the Over is 6-1 in their last 7 and 4-2 at home. Interestingly, the Over is also a perfect 5-0 between these two teams.
Stadium Record
New Orleans has a strong 18-7 record in their last 25 home games. Los Angeles have struggled at this venue with a 1-4 record.
Head to Head Record
The Chargers hosted the Saints in 2016 and a high scoring affair went to the Saints, 35-34. In the 6 meetings since 1997, the Saints lead the head to head 4-2.
Best Bet
Other NFL Week 5 Tips
| Game | Best Bet |
|---|---|
| Panthers at Falcons | Over 53.5 $1.91 |
| Raiders at Chiefs | Under 56.5 $1.87 |
| Bengals at Ravens | Bengals +14.5 $1.68 |
| Eagles at Steelers | Under 44.5 $1.92 |
| Jaguars at Texans | Under 53.5 $1.96 |
| Cardinals at Jets | Cardinals -6.5 $1.78 |
| Rams at Washington | Rams -6.5 $1.70 |
| Dolphins at 49ers | Over 47.5 $1.94 |
| Giants at Cowboys | Cowboys -9.5 $1.91 |
