Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
Life in the NFL hasn't started well for 1st round pick Trevor Lawrence after 3 straight defeats. This is not an easy matchup either against a much improved Bengals defence on their home turf. The Jags have struggled to score points (17.7 ppg) in their 3 defeats so they will need to find success in the running game through James Robinson. Which will also help their also struggling defence, which has allowed the 2nd most yards and 3rd most points.
With QB Joe Burrow back from an ACL injury, the Bengals are looking like an AFC North darkhorse and this is simply a must win game for their playoff chances. Cincinnati come off a huge 24-10 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh and their defence has been a bright spot. They're ranked in the top 10 in the NFL for points allowed, rushing yards allowed and total yardage. So expect them to put plenty of pressure on Lawrence to create turnovers.
The Bengals are comfortable home favourites in this Friday matchup and we can't disagree. They're defence stifled the Steelers on the road last week and they'll now face an interception prone Trevor Lawrence in front of a fired up Bengals crowd. So we'll back the Bengals to cover at home and move to 3-1.
Stadium Record
The Bengals won their home opener this season and have covered in 6 of their last 8 at this venue. The Jaguars are 1-3 at this venue since 2008.
Head to Head Record
In the last 7 meetings, the Bengals hold a 5-2 record.
Best Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Tom Brady returns to Foxborough for the first time as a Buccaneer and there's no doubt he'll be fired up, especially after last week. The Bucs were outmatched by the Rams in a potential playoff preview in Week 3 as they went down 34-24. Their defence continues to struggle against the pass as they currently rank last in the NFL for passing yardage allowed. However, they should find it easier this week against rookie QB Mac Jones compared to Matt Stafford's weapons. On the bright side, the Bucs are still the number 1 scoring team in the NFL and Brady's matchup with the Patriots 2nd ranked pass defence will be interesting. It's hard to forget about Rob Gronkowski in his return as well. He does have a rib issue but we doubt he'll be missing this one.
The Patriots were sloppy against the Saints in Week 3 and got what they deserved in a 28-13 defeat. On the flipside of the Brady returning story, we have Patriots HOF coach Bill Belichick that won't be backing down against his former Super Bowl winning QB. He'll understand this matchup can't turn into a scoring shootout as the Patriots just don't have the weapons to compete. So it's all about the Pats defence and taking away the Bucs strength, their passing game.
Brady vs Belichick is all we need to say about this matchup in what will be one of the most watched & intriguing regular season games in NFL history. Ultimately, we just can't see the Pats causing an upset against Brady. Their offence has struggled to score points in back to back home games and they're ranked 22nd in the NFL for total yardage. So despite the Bucs defensive issues against the pass, rookie Mac Jones likely won't have enough firepower to give them a scare. So we like the chances of the Bucs keeping the Pats under 20.5 points.
Stadium Record
The Pats have lost both home games this season. The Bucs are 0-2 at this venue since 2005 (both against Brady).
Head to Head Record
This is the 7th meeting since 2000 and the Patriots hold a 4-2 record in the previous 6 meetings.
Best Bet
Home Team Total Points Under 20.5 = $1.86
Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
The Raiders are undefeated and face a massive divisional clash with the Chargers on Tuesday. Las Vegas are winning the close games thus far, which includes a 31-28 OT victory over the Dolphins in Week 3. After trailing 14-2 in the first quarter, they showed great resolve to rally for an important win. The major key has been QB Derek Carr as the Raiders are currently the best total yardage and passing yardage team in the NFL.
The Chargers are coming off a huge 30-24 upset of the Chiefs in Kansas City and are just a field goal away from a 3-0 record. Similarly to the Raiders, the Chargers passing game is the key to their success through Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Their defence has also shown improvement, highlighted by allowing just 20 points per game in their 3 games this season.
The AFC West has become a tough division this season so this is a must win game for both sides. With two of the top passing attacks in the league in action and that leans us towards the Over for Tuesday's matchup. This should be a shootout between Carr & Herbert and both sides can put up 30+ points if all goes to plan.
Stadium Record
The Raiders are 2-0 at home this season. The Chargers won their first game at this venue in December, 30-27.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is split at 5-5.
Best Bet
Other NFL Week 4 Tips
| Game | Best Bet
|
| Washington at Falcons | Under 48.5 points = $1.82 |
| Texans at Bills | Bills -15.5 = $1.82 |
| Lions at Bears | Under 42.5 points = $1.87 |
| Panthers at Cowboys | Panthers +4.5 = $1.92 |
| Colts at Dolphins | Dolphins -1.5 = $1.85 |
| Browns at Vikings | Over 51.5 points = $1.91 |
| Giants at Saints | Giants +7.5 = $1.96 |
| Titans at Jets | Titans -7.5 = $1.87 |
| Chiefs at Eagles | Over 54.5 points = $1.92 |
| Cardinals at Rams | Over 53.5 points = $1.80 |
| Seahawks at 49ers | Over 51.5 points = $1.85 |
| Ravens at Broncos | Under 44.5 points = $1.87 |
| Steelers at Packers | Packers -6.5 = $1.87 |
