Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)
After two straight defeats at the hands of the Bucs (26-14) and Bears (33-27), the 6-8 Vikings playoff hopes are pretty much all but over. Last week against the Bears their defence just couldn't stop the run and a late rally by the Vikings fell short. So they'll need to find a defensive gameplan around stopping the influence of Alvin Kamara.
The Saints are coming off back to back losses as well after 3 point defeats to the Eagles and Chiefs. Drew Brees returned from a rib injury in last week's loss to the Chiefs and looked rusty before throwing 3 TD passes as the Saints almost mounted a comeback. So Brees and his offence should be better in the early stages against the Vikings.
New Orleans are struggling to stop the running game of late and a matchup with Dalvin Cook won't make it any easier. So we don't mind the chances of the desperate Vikings creating a close contest. They're also 6-1 ATS at this venue and won here in a January playoff matchup.
Stadium Record
The Saints are 4-1 at home in their last 5. Minnesota holds a 2-3 record in New Orleans since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the 10 meetings since 2005, both sides have won 5 games. The most recent meeting was in January when the Vikings caused a massive playoff upset at this venue, 26-20.
Best Bet
Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
The injury-riddled Dolphins are on the verge of a rare playoff berth and they simply need to win their next 2 games to qualify over the Ravens. Last week, they started very slowly against the Patriots as they were held scoreless at half-time after a sloppy first half. However, they turned on their running game in the second half, highlighted by a 122 yard performance from Salvon Ahmed. They shouldn't really have many issues moving the ball against this mediocre Raiders defence either.
The late season collapse by the Raiders continued last week as they fell to the Chargers in an OT loss. However, they lost QB Derek Carr in the first quarter and Marcus Moriota showed he's still capable of starting in the NFL with an impressive performance. Which included just over 300 total yards and a rushing touchdown. So if the Raiders defence can show-up, they're a chance of a home underdog upset.
The major difference between these two teams is defensively, where the Dolphins are a much better unit and that should lead to a fairly low scoring affair. As such, the Fins are 4-1 against the Under and also hold a 4-2 Under record on the road. Really can't see the Dolphins dropping this clash by under 3 points either with a playoff spot on the line and the Raiders likely missing Derek Carr.
Stadium Record
Vegas has been a poor home advantage for the Raiders with just 2 wins in 7 games. Miami are yet to play here.
Head to Head Record
Miami has owned this matchup since 2002 with 8 wins in 10 meetings.
Best Bet
Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)
The Titans remain in a tie with the Colts for the AFC South division at 10-4 and after back to back thrashings of the Jaguars/Lions, the Titans should enjoy this challenge at Lambeau. This matchup is built for Derrick Henry, who's absolutely on fire at the moment. So with the Titans scoring 30+ points in 5 straight games, they should have no problems if this turns into a shootout with Aaron Rodgers.
With the best record in the NFC at this stage, the Packers simply need to win their last 2 games to enjoy home field advantage throughout the playoffs. While they were pretty sloppy against the Panthers last week, it was pleasing to see their running game get going behind Aaron Jones (20 carries, 145 yards, 1 TD). Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP type of season with 40 TD passes as well.
Two of the best teams in the NFC and AFC in this one and the high total is reflecting what could be an old fashioned shootout. Interestingly, 3 of the last 4 meetings behind the two teams have gone over 60 total points as well so we're going to stick with the trend. Both sides have great offences but defensively can struggle to stop the pass/run, so that should lead to a very high scoring matchup.
Stadium Record
The Titans lost to the Packers 55-7 at this venue in 2012. Green Bay is 6-1 at home this season.
Head to Head Record
In the last meeting, the Titans won 47-25 at home and have won 4 of the 6 meetings since 1998.
Best Bet
Buffalo Bills (11-3) at New England Patriots (6-8)
Congratulations are in order for the Buffalo Bills as they've locked up the AFC East division and will be heading into the playoffs with superb confidence. The Bills have finally found a franchise QB in Josh Allen and he should be a massive challenge for this Patriots defence. They're coming off 4 straight wins and a 48-19 thrashing of the Broncos so we probably can't see them losing this one.
The Patriots impressive playoff streak is over after another disappointing defeat in Miami. Despite keeping a shutout in the first half, their poor run defence came back to haunt them in the second half as the Dolphins ran riot. They don't have much confidence in their passing game with Cam Newton, which makes it tough when a team gets a sizeable lead. As has been the case in back to back defeats against the Rams and Dolphins.
After years of losing to Tom Brady at this venue, Buffalo should be highly motivated to get some revenge against a now average Pats team. However, we do like the Under with the Patriots involved at the moment. It's saluted in all of their last 5 games as they just can't score a lot of points at the moment, making them focus on defence. The forecast for windy weather also helps the cause.
Stadium Record
New England has been solid at home with a 4-2 record. The Bills have an awful 17-2 record in New England, mostly during the Tom Brady era.
Head to Head Record
The Bills beat the Patriots at home in November 24-21. But since 2015, the Pats are 8-2 in this matchup.
Best Bet
Other NFL Week 16 Tips
| Game | Best Bet |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Lions | Over 52.5 $1.78 |
| 49ers at Cardinals | Cardinals -4.5 $1.87 |
| Browns at Jets | Browns -9.5 $1.91 |
| Giants at Ravens | Under 44.5 $1.96 |
| Bears at Jaguars | Bears -7.5 $1.91 |
| Colts at Steelers | Colts -1.5 $1.89 |
| Bengals at Texans | Under 45 $1.96 |
| Broncos at Chargers | Chargers -3 $1.82 |
| Panthers at Washington | Over 44 $1.82 |
| Rams at Seahawks | Over 47.5 $1.92 |
| Eagles at Cowboys | Over 49.5 $1.89 |
