San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
Hardrock Stadium in Miami will host a highly anticipated Super Bowl LIV matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. In terms of history, it's been 50 long years since the Chiefs last reached a Super Bowl and they'll be desperate to end one of the longest droughts in NFL history. The 49ers have won 5 Super Bowls in franchise history and this will be their first appearance since losing to the Ravens in the 2012 decider.
Road to the Super Bowl - Chiefs
After winning their first four games, the Chiefs struggled through the mid-stages of season 2019, mainly because of an injury to Patrick Mahomes. But they peaked nicely before the playoffs, reeling off 6 straight wins which included an important victory over the Patriots in New England. They were slow starters in their playoff matchup against the Texans as they fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter. But Mahomes led the charge in the 2nd quarter as they scored 28 points to take the lead into half-time. They had all the momentum from that stage and smashed the Texans 51-31. They faced a tough matchup against the in-form Titans and Derrick Henry in the conference playoffs. Once again, they fell behind early but it was Mahomes that led the Chiefs back into the game. Their defence was also excellent against Henry and they outlasted the Titans 35-24 on their way to the Super Bowl.
Road to the Super Bowl - 49ers
It's fair to say the 49ers weren't expected to be a Super Bowl contender after a disappointing season in 2018. But after winning their first 8 games this season, we knew the 49ers were a much different team now. They ended up winning 5 of 6 games against divisional opponents and took out the NFC West with a 13-3 record, which included a huge 26-21 road win over the Seahawks in Week 17. After a bye week in the playoffs, the 49ers easily disposed of the Vikings on their home turf 27-10. It was their first playoff victory in 6 years as they used their running game/defence to halt the Vikings momentum. In the Conference playoffs, they met old rivals the Green Bay Packers and the 37-20 scoreline flattered the Packers. Once agian, the 49ers running game was completely dominant and their defence was unbreakable as they lead 27-0 at half-time.
Key Matchups to Watch
#1 - 49ers Running game vs Chiefs Defence: A feature of the 49ers two playoff victories has been their running game and that's going to be one of the major keys in this Super Bowl. Last time out, they used Raheem Mostert to great effect as he ran for 220 yards and found the endzone on 4 occasions. Previously, it was Tevin Coleman who took the bulk of the load against the Vikings. However, he does have a shoulder issue coming into this game so it's likely going to be Mostert again in this one. Generally, the Chiefs have struggled against the run this season but they did step up in their last effort by halting the seemingly unstoppable Derrick Henry. So if the Chiefs D can stop the 49ers controlling the clock, it forces Jimmy G to throw the ball and that could play into the Chiefs gameplan.
#2 - Mahomes vs 49ers Pass Rush: The 49ers simply must pressure Patrick Mahomes otherwise he'll pick them apart all game. The good news for the 49ers is they have the pass rush ability to trouble Mahomes. During the playoffs, they sacked Cousins 6 times and took down Rodgers 3 times last game along with 2 interceptions. The Titans and Texans both suffered from the same problem against Mahomes as they just couldn't get enough pressure on him to force tough / early throws. But I think the 49ers will have a gameplan and a few blitz packages that could see them get an advantage. Especially with the likes of Nick Bosa lurking around in this defence.
#3 - Jimmy Garoppolo vs Chiefs Defence: During the 49ers two playoff victories, Garoppolo has thrown the ball just 27 times as the 49ers running game did the damage. But one of the major question marks about this Super Bowl is how the 49ers will respond if this becomes a shootout with the Chiefs high-powered offence. Garoppolo does have the experience of Super Bowl victories with the Patriots but he wasn't required on the field in the pressure of making plays. He's had a good season with 27 touchdowns and the 49ers believed in him with the Patriots trade. So they should be confident that he can get the job done if needed. But having to outplay Mahomes will not be an easy task.
MVP
As usual, the MVP award betting markets are dominated by the two Quarterbacks with Mahomes just favourite at the moment. If the Chiefs do win, you can expect Mahomes will easily win the award because he'll likely have a huge say in the outcome. But if the 49ers win, they'll likely have success in the running game and that should mean great value for Raheem Mostert, especially after his 4 TD performance against the Packers. So we'd suggest backing both players because this Super Bowl will likely be a close one.
Patrick Mahomes ($2) or Raheem Mostert ($11)
Head to Head
The Chiefs hold a slight advantage in the head to head with 4 wins in the 7 meetings since 1997. In the last meeting in 2018, Mahomes tossed 3 touchdowns as the Chiefs beat them 38-27 at Arrowhead Stadium.
Prediction
Sometimes the Super Bowl features a bit of mismatch between the AFC and NFC but this looks like we have the two very best teams in the NFL this season. As such, the Chiefs are only slight favourites in what should be a very closely faught affair. So we'll be steering clear of the head to head / line and will focus on a high scoring affair. The fact that these two sides met last season with a 38-27 scoreline, we'll be expecting a similar type of shootout. For the Chiefs, they've averaged 43 points per game in their 2 playoff victories and the total has easily gone Over in both. They also have a good Overs record against winning teams at 7-2. Meanwhile, the 49ers have averaged 32 points per game in their playoff wins and the Over has saluted in 4 of their last 6 games.
