2022 NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting Predictions
The race to the Super Bowl is down to just 8 teams and we look at all four matchups in the divisional playoffs on Sunday/Monday.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
The Jaguars overcame a 27-0 deficit against the Chargers last week in one of the greatest playoff comebacks. Trevor Lawrence struggled early on in his playoff debut with 4 interceptions. However, he turned it around in the second half with 4 touchdown passes as the Jags completed the 31-30 victory. All of his touchdowns went to different receivers and Travis Etienne Jr. enjoyed success on the ground with another 100+ rushing yard day. The Jags can't afford to have a slow start against the Chiefs so the second-half performance will be something they'll need to continue in Kansas City. Defensively, the Chiefs are average against the pass so Lawrence will need to take advantage when they get the ball.
The Chiefs will be fresh from the bye after sealing up the #1 seed in the AFC. They head into this game on the back of a 5 game-winning streak. Patrick Mahomes had another outstanding season with 41 touchdown passes and over 5000 passing yards. As such, the Chiefs are the top-scoring team in the league with 29 points per game and they're also ranked #1 for passing yards. The Chiefs offence will have a favourable matchup against the Jags defence that's allowing the 28th most passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defence improved against the run this year as they finished top in rushing yards allowed and that will be a key factor in the running game.
It's tough to back against Mahomes and his Chiefs at home. They have the benefit of the week off and they're 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. They also beat the Jags by 10 pts already this season. Meanwhile, Jacksonville were lucky to win last week let's be fair and if they make mistakes, the Chiefs will be ready to punish them.
Stadium Record
Kansas City are 7-1 at Arrowhead Stadium this season. Jacksonville are just 1-5 at this venue in their last 6.
Head to Head Record
The Chiefs beat the Jags in November, 27-17 and hold a 7-3 record since 2004.
Best Bet
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 = $1.89
New York Giants (10-7-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Giants are coming off a huge playoff upset over the Vikings in Minnesota last week in the 31-24 result. Saquon Barkley was impressive for the Giants as he finished with 2 touchdowns from just 9 carries. QB Daniel Jones also dominated the Vikings defence with 2 touchdown passes and 78 rushing yards. The Eagles have been strong defensively against the pass this season so the Giants will be looking to continue their success on the ground. Meanwhile, the Giants defence hasn't been great against the run so they'll need to find a way of stopping Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles earned the #1 seed in the NFC and it will likely help them get healthy as they push for a Super Bowl berth. Jalen Hurts suffered an injured shoulder in the latter stages of the season but was able to play in Week 18. He's the key for the Eagles offence as he can beat you in the air or on the ground. He enjoyed a nice combination with AJ Brown this season as he finished with almost 1500 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. While on defence, the Eagles finished the season as the top-ranked defence against the pass and allowed just 20 points per game. They'll know it's all about the Giants running game so that will be their focus on the defensive side of the ball.
New York are one of those teams that just steps up when it comes to the playoffs and we like their chances of forcing a close game. They're 10-1 ATS on the road in the playoffs and don't mind this venue (5-1 ATS). Philly lost a bit of momentum at the end of the regular season as they're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games.
Stadium Record
Philadelphia are 7-2 in their last 9 at home. New York has covered in 5 of their last 6 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles have owned this divisional rivalry with an 8-2 record since 2018.
Best Bet
Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) at Buffalo Bills (14-3)
Joe Burrow and his Bengals come off a hard-fought win over the Ravens last week 24-17. Burrow didn't have his best stuff as he was sacked 4 times but his combination with Chase continued. Chase finished with 9 catches, 1 touchdown and 84 receiving yards. While on defence, Sam Hubbard returned a fumble for a touchdown and that ended up as the difference between the two sides. In this matchup with the Bills, the key will be the Bengals passing game. Buffalo struggled last week against an inexperienced QB and Burrow should take advantage.
The Bills survived a scare against the Dolphins last week on their home turf to come away with a 34-31 victory. So they'll be looking to improve in this re-match with the Bengals. One of the key focus areas will be turnovers as Josh Allen gave up 2 interceptions/1 fumble. However, Diggs and Davis both dominated in the passing game with over 100 receiving yards and that bodes well for this matchup. Meanwhile, the Bills defence was a bit inconsistent last week as they gave up 31 pts but also got pressure on the QB with 4 sacks/2 interceptions. Overall, they've given up just 17 points per game this season so they'll be looking to force similar mistakes from Burrow.
Both sides struggled for consistency last week but a high-scoring affair between the likes of Burrow and Allen looks like the best bet. The Over is 5-1 in the Bills last 6 games and they're coming off 64 total pts last week.
Stadium Record
Buffalo are 8-1 at home this season. Cincinnati has lost 7 of their last 9 in Buffalo.
Head to Head Record
The Bills are 6-4 in the last 10 meetings since 2004.
Best Bet
Dallas Cowboys (13-5) at San Francisco 49ers (14-4)
The Cowboys finally overcame their playoff woes to beat the Bucs 31-14 last week. Dak Prescott returned to form in style with a 5 touchdown performance. They also dominated on the ground with Pollard averaging 5 yards per carry. On defence, they gave Brady nothing and kept the Bucs scoreless in the first half. They'll know this is a tougher matchup but Dak's performance will give them confidence. The 49ers defence is strong against the run but not as strong against the pass. So if Prescott can bring the same form as last week, that will give Dallas a chance.
Brock Purdy dominated in his playoff debut as a rookie with 3 touchdown passes and the 49ers overcame a tough divisional matchup with a 41-23 victory. Christian McCaffrey was also impressive on the ground with 119 rushing yards and Deebo Samuel finished with 165 all-purpose yards. After giving up 17 pts in the second quarter, the 49ers defence shut down the Seahawks in the second half by allowing just 6 pts. That will also be their focus against this Dallas team. The 49ers finished 2nd in the league for rushing yards so they should be able to stop the Cowboys momentum when they try to run the ball.
Both sides are coming off scoring 30+ pts and finished in the top 6 for points scored so we like the Over here. The Over is 5-0 in the 49ers last 5 home games and 4-1 in the playoffs. Over is also 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Stadium Record
San Francisco are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Dallas has won 5 of their last 6 on the road against SF.
Head to Head Record
The 49ers beat the Cowboys in the playoffs last year 23-17. Since 2001, the Cowboys are 7-3 in this matchup.
Best Bet
