Super Bowl LIII Preview - New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
Super Bowl LIII will see the New England Patriots take on the Los Angeles Rams in Atlanta this Monday morning for ultimate glory. It's a familiar story for New England as they've reached an impressive 3rd straight Super Bowl. As a result, they will take favouritism into this game over the younger but eager Rams at $1.73 odds.
Road to the Super Bowl - Patriots
Coming off a close loss in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles, the doubts started before the season about whether the Patriots dynasty was over. Well they proved it's not over just yet as Bill Belichick's once again masterfully steered his team to yet another finale. While they weren't overly dominant in the regular season, finishing with a 11-5 record, they proved this team is built for playoff football. After a first week bye in the playoffs, New England flew out off the blocks against the Chargers to a game-winning 35-7 lead at half-time. Next, they travelled to Kansas City and knocked off the Chiefs in an Overtime thriller - mainly thanks to Tom Brady. They overcame a 3-5 road record in the regular season and just made a few more plays compared to the Chiefs. Not to mention winning the coin toss and ending the game with a walk-off touchdown.
Road to the Super Bowl - Rams
Los Angeles has been building nicely under Sean McVay over the last few seasons and they used their first-round exit in the playoffs last season as motivation for an impressive run during 2018. They held a 13-3 regular season record and went 7-1 at home, while also keeping an undefeated record agianst their division. Aaron Donald was an unstoppable force on defence with 20.5 sacks and his battle against Tom Brady's offensive line is one of the major points to watch at this Super Bowl. Todd Gurley finished 3rd in rushing yards and they found a great one-two punch with C.J Anderson in the latter stages of the season. Along with Gurley, he dominated in the Rams first playoff win over the Cowboys at home. Overall, they rushed for 273 yards on the ground against Dallas in a 30-22 win. Then, the Rams travelled to New Orleans and upset the Saints in Overtime (to much controversy). Down 13-0 early, the Rams rallied in the second half and took the game into Overtime. Greg Zuerlein was the hero as he absolutely nailed a 57 yard field goal that sent the Rams into their first Super Bowl since 2002.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Patriots offence has leaned on Sony Michel near the redzone in the playoffs so far and that explains $1.60 odds for him to cross the endzone once again. There's also value for James White at $2.20, one of Tom Brady's favourite targets in the passing game. He has a good TD record in recent Super Bowl games and figures to be a good option once again. For the Rams, look out for Jared Goff's favourite target - WR Robert Woods ($2.00). New England will probably double-team Brandin Cooks and that opens up the field for Woods.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play an NFL game at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since a young Tom Brady led the Patriots to their Super Bowl victory over the Rams in the 2001 season, New England has not lost against the Rams (4-0). The two sides last met in 2016 at Gillette Stadium and the Pats came away with a 26-10 victory. When the Patriots meet the Rams on the road, they also hold a 5-2 record and 5-1 ATS in overall games against LA.
Super Bowl Prediction & Best Bet
This Super Bowl matchup between the Patriots and Rams figures to be a close but high scoring affair. For the Rams, they have a good matchup against the Patriots defence which can give up big plays. In the playoffs, this defence is allowing a touch under 30 points per game. The likes of Cooks and Woods in the passing game are going to be handful as well as the one-two punch between Gurley and Anderson. So I see the Rams establishing the run early and that hopefully opens up the passing game as the Pats defence tires. Coming into this game, the Rams have scored 26 or more points in 4 straight games and have a 4-1 record against the Over as the home team. While for New England, their offence is also firing at the right time of the season. In both playoff victories thus far, they have scored 37 against the Chiefs on the road and 41 against the Chargers at home. The Rams aren't great at defending pass-catching running backs and that should see James White be an important player to watch in this game. The other benefit for New England is Edelman and Gronkowski are fit. In the last few seasons, both players have missed this game and having them on the field will give Tom Brady even more weapons. Not to mention, the form of Sony Michel on the ground. The question mark will be the offensive line against the likes of Aaron Donald. But so far, Brady has been barely touched in this postseason. So in a tight battle between two fairly similar sides, I suggest getting on the Over total mark at 54.5 points.
