Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Kicking off the NFL Conference Playoffs will be the New Orleans Saints at home against the LA Rams on early Monday morning. Both sides are 14-3 on the season and this will hopefully be a playoff game to remember. Starting with the Saints, they overcame a 14-0 deficit at home against the Eagles last week to run out 20-14 winners. Drew Brees and Michael Thomas led the way on offence. While on defence, the Saints kept the Eagles scoreless after a 14 point 1st quarter. One of the major reasons for the Saints dominant season has been their improved defence and that will be the key when they take on the Rams running game. Overall, New Orleans were the #2 best team in the NFL for rushing yards allowed this season. It's a key stat because the Rams piled on 273 rushing yards in a 30-22 win over the Cowboys last week. New signing C.J Anderson continued his hot-form with 123 yards and 2 scores. Todd Gurley added another touchdown and 115 yards on 16 carries. The added benefit is the less reliance on QB Jared Goff to win the game in the air. However, he'll likely get less of a benefit this week against the Saints D and he'll need to out-play veteran Drew Brees.
The two sides have played against each other this year and in a high scoring affair, the Saints came away with a 45-35 victory at this venue. They've now scored 40+ points in 2 straight home games against the Rams as well. But the Rams are showing good form on the road with 9 wins in their last 11 away games. They've also covered the line in 6 of the last 9 meetings against the Saints. All in all, this should be a close game and the Rams should be able to keep this margin close.
Last week, the Saints started slowly against the Eagles and the Rams arguably have a better chance of putting New Orleans away if that also happens this week. Their 2 man running attack will be hard to stop and they also have a good enough defence to stop Drew Brees and his weapons. So that should see the Rams cover the alternative 5.5 point line. New Orleans has covered in just 1 of their last 6 games and it's 3-6 when they play against LA. At home this season, the Saints went 4-5 ATS as well.
Stadium Record
New Orleans hold a 15-2 record at home in their last 17 games. They've also won 7 straight home playoff games, dating back to 2000. Los Angeles last won in New Orleans when they played in St. Louis back in 2007.
Head to Head Record
Since 2004, the two sides have won 5 games against each other. In the last 6 meetings, the home side has won this matchup.
Best Bet
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Similar to the NFC, the AFC will see a matchup between the #1 and #2 seed. On Monday morning, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the New England Patriots at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs proved too good for the Colts last week as they were victorious 31-13. It was the Chiefs first home playoff victory since 1993 and they snapped a 6 game losing streak at home in the playoffs. The key was the running game where Damien Williams dominated and he has made KC fans forget about Kareem Hunt. In the end, he had 25 carries for 129 yards and found the endzone. Surprisingly, Pat Mahomes didn't toss a touchdown as the Chiefs laid the foundation on defence. It was a pretty similar story for the Patriots in their 41-28 defeat of the LA Chargers. Many were picking this playoff series as the end of the Patriots dynasty for this amazing team but Tom Brady and his men had different ideas. They were clinical in the first half and opened a 35-7 half-time lead that the Chargers couldn't overcome. Sony Michel had a day out on the ground with 3 rushing touchdowns and 129 yards. It was also his playoff debut! Edelman racked up 151 receiving yards and James White was in everything early, finishing with 15 catches.
In this AFC Championship matchup, the Chiefs will start as 3 point favourites over the Patriots. Kansas City were almost unstoppable at home this season with a 8-1 record and their offence, led by the expected MVP, will be hard to stop. The difficulty for New England in 2018 and recent playoff games has been their form away from Gillette Stadium. They won all 8 regular season games at home but struggled on the road with a 3-5 record. All 5 losses were against team's that didn't reach the playoffs as well. You also have to go back until 2006 for the Patriots last road playoff win (excluding Super Bowls). But you'd have to be a brave punter to back against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick when they're underdogs.
In the end, the total is set fairly high for this matchup but it looks achievable between two of the best offences in the NFL. Last week, the Patriots had 35 points on the board at half-time and the Chiefs are the #1 scoring team in 2018. After last week, the Patriots are now averaging 39.5 points in their last 2 games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have scored 30+ in 3 straight games. The two sides also met in Week 6 of the regular season and both sides enjoyed free flowing points as the Patriots got up 43-40. The Chiefs have now scored 40 or more points in 3 of the last 4 meetings against the Patriots. In recent times, games involving the Chiefs are 5-2 against the Over. Also, when the Patriots play Kansas City the Over has saluted in 4 of the last 5 meetings. So all signs are pointing to a high scoring affair this Monday.
Stadium Record
Kansas City is 8-1 at home in their last 9 games. Against New England at this venue, they hold a 5-1 record. The last meeting was back in 2014 and the Chiefs won 41-14.
Head to Head Record
Since 2000, the Patriots hold a 7-3 record against the Chiefs. However, the last 4 meetings have seen both sides win 2 games.
Best Bet
