In a somewhat underwhelming seven-game slate on Thursday, one matchup stands out. Will the Cavaliers bounce back, or will the Tyrese Maxey-led 76ers be too strong once again on their home floor?
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Before the season, most would have expected the Cavaliers to sit well ahead of the 76ers by January. Instead, Philadelphia have surprised, while Cleveland have taken a noticeable step back.
Despite holding a 22–19 record, the Cavaliers are a long way off last season’s level and enter this matchup off a shock loss to the Jazz.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, have carefully managed Joel Embiid and Paul George throughout the season, with Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe instrumental in their early success.
LEG 1 - Tyrese Maxey Over 27.5 Points
Averaging 30.9 points per game this season, this shapes as a premium matchup for Tyrese Maxey.
Maxey has cleared this line in 11 of his last 14 games, with Cleveland conceding points to point guards at a rate 20% above league average over the past month — by far the softest matchup in the NBA.
Even with Embiid and George both playing, Maxey still averages 29.8 points, so there’s no reason to expect a drop-off here.
LEG 2 - Darius Garland 15+ Points
Garland has been quietly consistent.
Across his last 15 games, he’s averaging 20.2 points, largely alongside Donovan Mitchell. He’s scored 15+ in 15 of his last 17 outings, and with his usage and shot profile, this line looks very achievable again.
LEG 3 - Sam Merrill 10+ Points
Sam Merrill continues to capitalise on his expanded role for Cleveland.
He’s averaging 17.7 points across his last six games and has cemented his place in the Cavaliers’ starting lineup.
Merrill has hit double figures in 12 of his last 14 games and has scored at least 14 points in each of his last six.
Same Game Multi
Maxey Over 27.5 Points / Garland 15+ Points / Merrill 10+ Points = $3.60
VALUE BET
Tyrese Maxey 40+ Points @ $9.25
As outlined in Leg 1, the matchup strongly favours Maxey, but this also shapes as a genuine ceiling game.
He’s been knocking on the door of a 40-point outing since his last explosion against Atlanta on November 30, including a 38-point performance against Toronto two games ago.
Cleveland concede points to point guards at a rate 20% above league average over the past month — with the next-worst team sitting at just 9%. With ESPN coverage, this could easily turn into a monster night for Maxey.
