What a treat we have this Thursday. Nuggets vs Knicks, the in-form Raptors facing the Timberwolves, Houston against Boston, and the big one in the West between the Spurs and Thunder.
OKC Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
It feels like these two teams are playing each other every week, and I’m here for it. This will be the fifth time the Thunder and Spurs have matched up this season, including the NBA Cup Semi Final and the Christmas Day game.
With these sides filling the top two spots in the West, will it be the Spurs who come away with another win after leading the season series 3-1 so far?
LEG 1 — Under 225.5 Total Points
We’ve now got a big enough sample size this season to understand the scoring profile between these two teams, who meet for the fifth time due to their NBA Cup Semi Final matchup. It’s well below the total currently set for this game.
Three of the four previous meetings have gone under 225.5 total points. While the average sits at 224, that figure is inflated by a blowout outlier in their second matchup where the total reached 240.
LEG 2 — Jaylin Williams 4+ Rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein is expected to rest in this game, while Jalen Williams remains sidelined, which should see Jaylin Williams step into a larger role at power forward.
Across the 14 games Jaylin Williams has played without Hartenstein this season, he’s hit 4+ rebounds in nine of them. One of the misses came against Cleveland two weeks ago where he played just seven minutes.
LEG 3 — Chet Holmgren Under 16.5 Points
Chet has genuinely struggled against Wembanyama and the Spurs all season.
He covered this line in their first meeting with 17 points, but Wemby played only 20 minutes in that game.
In the other three matchups, Holmgren has scored 7, 10 and 8 points, averaging just 10.5 points per game against San Antonio this season.
Same Game Multi
Under 225.5 Total Points / Jaylin Williams 4+ Rebounds / Holmgren Under 16.5 Points = $4.00
VALUE BET
Stephon Castle 20+ Points @ $3.15
Castle has been slightly down on output recently, failing to hit 20+ points in his last eight games, but he’s been San Antonio’s most consistent performer against OKC this season.
Last year’s Rookie of the Year is averaging 21.25 points per game against the Thunder and has cleared 20+ in three of the four matchups. In the one miss, Castle finished on 19.
