A six-game Sunday slate features several intriguing matchups, including the Timberwolves taking on the Magic. The headline game sees Golden State head to Oklahoma City to face the reigning champions despite being heavily depleted.
Golden State Warriors @ OKC Thunder
The Warriors shocked most NBA followers last time out when their ‘G-League’ lineup upset the Rockets in Houston.
This shapes as a much tougher assignment though as they head to Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team that has bounced back from its mid-season lull, winning seven of its last eight games.
LEG 1 - De’Anthony Melton 15+ Points
Recent form has been strong for De’Anthony Melton, who is averaging 17.6 points across his last seven games for the Warriors.
Steph Curry is set to miss again, as will Moses Moody. If Melton is cleared to play he should take on a significant offensive workload after scoring 23 points against Houston last game under similar circumstances.
LEG 2 - Gui Santos Over 20.5 PRA
The sample size is now large enough to trust Gui Santos, who continues to impress for Golden State in the absence of Jimmy Butler.
Santos is averaging 14.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists across his last 15 games — a PRA of 23.7. Over his last 11 games he has cleared the 20.5 PRA line in eight of them.
LEG 3 - Chet Holmgren Double Double
The absence of Isaiah Hartenstein works perfectly for Chet Holmgren.
Already averaging nine rebounds per game this season, Holmgren’s rebounding increases by 8.4% when Hartenstein is out. When we also factor in the absence of Jalen Williams, that number jumps to a 20.4% increase across a seven-game sample.
Holmgren has recorded double doubles in his last five games without Hartenstein and Williams this season, averaging 16.8 points and 12.2 rebounds. Against an undersized Warriors lineup, he should do it again.
Same Game Multi
Melton 15+ Points / Santos Over 20.5 PRA / Holmgren Double Double = $4.75
VALUE BET - Jared McCain 15+ Points @ $3.50
Oklahoma City will run a short rotation with Caruso, Mitchell, Jalen Williams and Hartenstein all unavailable, which creates a strong opportunity for Jared McCain to play 20+ minutes.
Despite joining the Thunder just a month ago, the former 76er has delivered when given the chance. McCain has played 20+ minutes six times this season and averages 16.2 points in those games.
He’s cleared 15+ points in three of those six appearances, and when he does hit that mark he has pushed on to 20+ points. That makes the longer $7.75 price worth a small sprinkle as well.
