Off the back of some Christmas Day classics, we have a nine-game slate on Saturday, including the Heat at Atlanta and the Bucks in Memphis.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies
The Bucks are in shambles without Giannis on the floor, despite the efforts of Kevin Porter Jr.
As for the Grizzlies, they’ve started to figure things out, winning 10 of their last 15 games, thanks largely to Ja Morant.
While Memphis should be too strong here, there are still a few plays worth considering around Milwaukee’s starters.
LEG 1 - Bobby Portis 15+ Points
Portis’ minutes have understandably increased in the absence of Giannis and he’s become one of Milwaukee’s primary scoring options.
Portis is averaging 16.5 points per game without Giannis across 13 games, hitting 15+ points in seven of the last 11.
The Grizzlies have conceded points to power forwards at a rate nine percent above league average over the past month, so Portis could be in line for another strong outing.
LEG 2 - Ryan Rollins Over 7.5 RA
Now coming off the bench for balance following the return of Kevin Porter Jr, Rollins’ scoring has dipped slightly, but he continues to contribute across the stat sheet.
With Porter Jr in the lineup and Giannis out, Rollins is averaging 4.4 rebounds and 5.6 assists, in line with his season numbers despite playing four fewer minutes per game alongside KPJ.
Rollins has cleared 8+ RA in six of the seven games played with Porter Jr and without Giannis this season, so there’s no reason to expect a slowdown here.
LEG 3 - Kevin Porter Jr 4+ Rebounds
Since returning from injury, Porter Jr has made an immediate impact.
He’s averaging 4.9 rebounds per game this season, but that figure jumps to 6.3 without Giannis, clearing 4+ rebounds in six of seven such games.
The Grizzlies have conceded rebounds to point guards at a rate 23% above league average over the last month. Porter Jr has pulled down 10 rebounds in two of his last five games, and another strong rebounding effort wouldn’t surprise.
Same Game Multi
Portis 15+ Points / Rollins Over 7.5 RA / Porter Jr 4+ Rebounds = $3.60
VALUE BET
Kevin Porter Jr 8+ Rebounds @ $4.40
As outlined above, Porter Jr has produced some big rebounding games in the absence of Giannis.
He recently grabbed 10 rebounds against the Timberwolves and the Celtics, while also recording 6+ boards in two other games.
Memphis has been the easiest team in the NBA for point guards to rebound against over the last month, conceding boards at a rate 23% above average. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pulled down 10 rebounds against them recently, while Donte DiVincenzo had 11.
Eight rebounds is a strong price here, while 10+ at $8.75 is also worth a small sprinkle.
