Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
The 76ers head to Miami on the back of a 4-2 series victory over the Raptors but an injury to Joel Embiid in Game 6 is a huge blow for this series. Embiid will miss at least the first two games of the series with a concussion and a facial fracture. However, there is optimism he can return when the series heads to Philadelphia for Game 3 or 4. Without Embiid though in Game 1, the offensive focus shifts to Harden, Harris and Maxey. Harden was a strong distributor against the Raptors with 10 assists per game but he'll need to take more shots without Embiid. Maxey averaged 21 pts per game in the previous series and comes off 25 pts in Game 6. He was a little inconsistent against the Raptors but that comes with being a young player. Paul Reed will get the start at centre for the 76ers in Game 1 and Niang should get more minutes off the bench.
The #1 seeded Heat easily accounted for the Hawks with a 4-1 series victory and will be well-rested for their next 2 games on home court. However, Kyle Lowry is out with a hamstring and Gabe Vincent will get the start again. Oladipo found form in Game 5 against the Hawks with 23 pts and should get plenty of playing time in this series as well. Adebayo warmed into the series against the Hawks and should enjoy dominating the paint without Embiid on the floor. Jimmy Butler missed the Game 5 victory with a knee injury but should be right to play on Tuesday. Tucker and Strus are both questionable with injuries as well so that will something to monitor before tip-off.
This series shapes up to be a low scoring grind considering the Heat's impressive defence and the 76ers will likely struggle to score 100+ pts without Embiid. The trend between the two teams has also been the Under, which has saluted in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Miami also holds a 5-0 Unders record and it's 4-1 when They're at home. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 4-1 against the Under in their last 5 games.
Stadium Record
The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Philadelphia has lost 5 of their last 6 in Miami.
Head to Head Record
Miami has won 6 of the last 10 meetings since 2019.
Best Bet
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
The Mavericks closed out the Jazz with a 4-2 series victory and will head to Phoenix with confidence. Doncic will be the key for the Mavs in this series and despite missing 3 games in the Jazz series, he was able to establish some form in the 3 games he played. Overall, he averaged 29 points per game and shot 46% from the field. Jalen Brunson has been impressive in the playoffs with an average of 27 points per game and he hasn't fallen below 20 points in his last 6 games. However, if the Suns shutdown the duo of Doncic and Brunson, the Mavs depth is a concern. In terms of injuries, they didn't pick up any serious issues in the Jazz series so they'll be fit and fired up for a potential 7 game series with the Suns.
Meanwhile, the Suns had an unexpected battle against the #8 seeded Pelicans in what was a tough 4-2 series victory. However, a hamstring injury to Devin Booker in Game 2 of that series rattled the Suns but they were good enough to overcome it. Booker returned in Game 6 and played 32 minutes. So he should be better for the run against the Mavs. Chris Paul was at his best against the Pelicans as he averaged 22 points per game and comes off 33 points in Game 6. His matchup with Doncic will be an intriguing factor in this series. Ayton also had a consistent series against New Orleans with 20 points per game, which was well above his season average of 17.2.
Beating the Suns on their home court is difficult and Mavs don't have a good record in Phoenix. They've lost all of their last 5 meetings and the Suns seem to have the wood over them. So we'll back the home team to continue the trend and cover in Game 1.
Stadium Record
The Suns are 17-5 in their last 22 home games. The Mavs have a poor 3-7 ATS record in Phoenix.
Head to Head Record
Phoenix has dominated this matchup with 9 wins in the last 10 meetings.
Best Bet
