Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics
The Warriors have flipped the script in the NBA Finals as they lead 3-2 and can capture the title with a victory in Game 6. They come off back-to-back wins in the series by a 10+ margin. Their defence has been impressive as they've allowed under 100 points in those 2 wins, especially in the 4th quarter. Overall, they've outscored Boston 57-39 in the last 2 fourth quarters and that will be a factor for Game 6. Curry had his struggles in Game 5 as he was 0-9 from three-point range and finished with just 16 pts. But it's hard to forget his 43-point performance in Game 4 at TD Garden and the greatest 3pt shooter in NBA history should be able to bounce back. However, Wiggins and Thompson both stepped up in Game 5. Wiggins comes off 26 pts and he's been a beast on the boards with a total of 29 in his last 2 games. So he's great value in the double-double markets at the moment. Thompson seems to come alive as a series goes deeper so look for a bit of value in the 25+ pt markets if he gets hot. He scored 32 pts against the Mavs in Game 5 and 30 pts against the Grizzlies in Game 6.
The Celtics have lost the momentum in the NBA Finals and will need to win at home on Friday to keep their championship dreams alive. They should be confident considering they've faced elimination against the Bucks and Heat in previous series' and got the job done. One of the key areas of improvement for Boston is turnovers and they need to take better care of the basketball. They committed 18 in Game 5 compared to the Warriors 6. Meanwhile on offence, Tatum has been consistent in the series as he's averaging 23 points per game. But the Celtics will likely need him to hit the 30+ mark, such as when he hit 46 pts in a Game 6 elimination clash with the Bucks. Jaylen Brown comes off a rough Game 5 as he turned the ball over 5 times and shot just 5 of 23. However, he has a better scoring record at home in this series and should be able to rebound with the Celtics season on the line. Marcus Smart has scored 18+ pts in his last 3 games and does look good value in the player points markets. His minutes are consistent and he's taking around 16 field goals per game. In the rebounds markets, Robert Williams is likely the safe bet for the Celtics. He's coming off an average of 10 boards in his last 3 games and hit a ceiling of 12 in Game 4.
The market is expecting the Celtics to get the job done in Game 6 and force what everyone wants to see, an NBA Finals Game 7. However, Golden State head to Boston with a lot of confidence after back-to-back wins and they comfortably beat the Celtics at this venue in Game 4. Ultimately, this should be a close battle between two desperate teams and picking a winner is a tough bet. Instead, we like a few player props mentioned above. Smart has been consistently hitting the 18-point mark. Meanwhile, Wiggins is coming off back-to-back double-doubles. Hitting 10+ pts should be no problem and he's collected 13 & 16 boards in his last 2 outings.
Stadium Record
The Celtics are 17-8 in their last 25 home games. The Warriors are 1-3-1 ATS in Boston.
Head to Head Record
Golden State lead the series 3-2. Boston has won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Best Bet
Marcus Smart 18+ Points ($2.25)
Best Value Bet
