The 2025/26 NBA Most Improved Player race is as open as it gets, with young Houston Rocket Amen Thomson the current favourite at $10, followed by Andrew Nembhard at $15. History shows this award goes to young scorers stepping into bigger roles, and there’s serious value on offer in this year’s market.
Our NBA Most Improved Player tips and predictions break down the main contenders, the trends behind past winners and where the best betting value lies for 2025/26.
Best Bet
When it comes to Most Improved, you’re looking for players who averaged under 20 points per game last season and are about to step into a top-two scoring role on an improving team.
Jalen Johnson fits that profile perfectly. He was on track to contend for the award last year before an injury derailed him in early January. If he stays healthy and plays 70+ games, there’s every chance he elevates to around 24 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists per night for a Hawks team that should finish top-four in the East.
Expect Trae Young’s scoring numbers to dip slightly as he transitions into more of a pass-first role. Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher won’t eat into Johnson’s usage, while Porzingis is used to playing as a role player after his stint in Boston.
Between October 28 and December 28 last season, when healthy, Johnson averaged 21 points, 10.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists. However, voters will only see the full-season averages, 18.9 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists, which undersell his impact.
At $41, it’s a strong price considering we’ve seen players like Maxey, Morant, Randle and Ingram follow this exact trajectory — jumping from a high-teens scorer to the low-to-mid 20s on their way to winning Most Improved.
Next Best
Two main reasons Avdija isn’t ahead of Johnson: Portland may push for the Play-In but won’t be a .500 team in a stacked Western Conference, and Chauncey Billups is still the coach.
We’ve already seen Billups tinker with lineups in pre-season, even bringing Avdija off the bench behind Jerami Grant — madness. Avdija averaged 16.9 points last year but really broke out after the All-Star break, putting up 23.3 per game.
He carried that form into EuroBasket, finishing as the tournament’s third-leading scorer behind Luka and Giannis with 24 points per game. It’s a similar form line to Lauri Markkanen’s breakout in 2023.
If Billups lets him play, Avdija’s a huge chance at a healthy price.
Value Bet
Dyson Daniels may have shifted the criteria for this award last season, improving from 5.8 to 14.1 points per game while leading the league in steals, proving that genuine year-on-year development still wins votes. Cade Cunningham was the early favourite, but voters eventually leaned toward raw improvement.
So, who’s the under-the-radar player about to take on a bigger role and surprise the field?
Jarace Walker was a top-10 pick for the Pacers in 2023 but has barely featured so far. With Haliburton out for the season and Turner traded to Milwaukee, Rick Carlisle looks ready to give him more opportunity. Walker has averaged 11.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists in pre-season, and looks set to build on his 6.1 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.5 assists from 2024-25.
At triple-figure odds, he’s a sneaky chance to follow the Daniels model as this year’s big improver.
