This series is very much up in the air, easily the closest of the four Conference Semi-Finals. It now shifts back to Detroit, where the Pistons will look to defend home court in Game 5 against the Cavaliers.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
We’re back in Detroit for Game 5, with the series locked at 2-2 and the home team yet to lose.
The concern is Cleveland’s road form. The Cavaliers enter this having won the last two games, but they are still yet to record a road win from five attempts this post-season.
Can they sneak Game 5 and head back to Cleveland with a chance to book their place in the Eastern Conference Finals, or will Detroit again prove too strong at home?
Leg 1 - Pistons -3.5
The Cavaliers have been so poor on the road this post-season that it’s hard to see them flipping the script in Game 5.
Across five road playoff games, Cleveland are 0-5 and have failed to cover the spread in all five.
Detroit, meanwhile, have covered in four of their last five home games this post-season and beat Cleveland by 10 points in both Games 1 and 2 of this series.
Evan Mobley, James Harden and Max Strus all have net ratings worse than -14 across the two road games in this matchup, making this a huge ask for the Cavs.
Leg 2 - Jalen Duren 8+ Rebounds
The last two games have been concerning for Duren, who was so dominant during the regular season but has struggled at times in the playoffs.
That said, his home numbers this post-season are far stronger than his road numbers.
In Detroit, Duren is averaging 10.3 rebounds across six playoff games, hitting 8+ in his last five and 10+ in his last three.
Expect a bounce back from the Pistons centre, at least on the glass.
Leg 3 - Dean Wade Over 2.5 Rebounds
Wade is averaging 24 minutes per game this post-season, and while his minutes dipped slightly in Games 3 and 4, he still has a role to play for Cleveland.
He also owns the best road playoff net rating of any Cavalier this post-season, one of only two Cleveland players with a positive mark.
Wade has recorded over 2.5 rebounds in 10 of his 11 playoff games, averaging four boards per game.
As one of Cleveland’s more reliable road performers, he should see enough minutes to clear this line again.
Same Game Multi
Pistons -3.5 / Duren 8+ Rebounds / Wade Over 2.5 Rebounds = $4.00
Value Bet - Jaylon Tyson 4+ Rebounds @ $4.50
With Strus, Harden, Mobley and Merrill all struggling badly on the road in this series, Jaylon Tyson could see more opportunity in Game 5.
He played just eight minutes in Game 4, but his rebounding profile remains strong.
Tyson is averaging eight rebounds per 36 minutes this post-season and has impacted the glass in road playoff games.
Across five road games, he is averaging 4.2 rebounds in 18.4 minutes per game, hitting 4+ rebounds in four of those matches, including each of his last four.
Kenny Atkinson may need to roll the dice with Tyson, and if he gets the minutes, this is a strong price for 4+ boards.
