2024/25 NBA West Finals - Timberwolves at Thunder (Game 1)
The road to the NBA Finals is down to four teams and in the West, we have the #1 seeded Thunder taking on the #6 seed Timberwolves. The Thunder knocked out the Nuggets in a grueling 7 game series and the Timberwolves sent the Warriors packing. Get ready for this matchup in the West finals - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Anthony Edwards. Here is a preview of game 1 on Wednesday morning.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
It’s Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, and the Timberwolves roll into OKC riding some hot form. Minnesota has won 7 of its last 8 games and covered the spread in 6 of those, including 4 of the last 5 against the Thunder. They’ve also gone 5-1 in their last 6 road games and are 6-2 in their last 8 when playing away at Oklahoma City. In their most recent outing, the Wolves handled the Warriors 121-110 at home, with Julius Randle dropping 29 points on 72% shooting and Anthony Edwards adding 22 points, 12 assists, and 7 boards on over 53% from the field.
Oklahoma City isn’t going to be an easy out, though. They’ve covered in 4 of their last 5 at home, and they beat Minnesota in a tight one back on February 24, 131-128. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been huge in this matchup—he’s averaging nearly 26 points a game against the Wolves across his career, and he's been on fire lately, averaging 35 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists in his last 4 meetings with them.
This one’s set up to be a high-level battle between two teams in great form, and the numbers suggest it could go either way.
The top-seeded Thunder come into Game 1 of the West Finals looking sharp, having won 12 of their last 15 and 6 of their last 7 at home. They just crushed the Nuggets 125–93, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander putting up 35 points on 63% shooting and Jalen Williams chipping in 24 points and 7 dimes. That said, they’ve struggled a bit at the betting window when hosting the Timberwolves, going just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 at home in this matchup.
OKC split the season series 2-2 with Minnesota, and the head-to-heads tend to be high-scoring—4 of the last 5 meetings have gone over the total. Back in February, the Thunder dropped a 131–128 OT thriller, where Anthony Edwards flirted with a triple-double (17-13-8) and sealed it with a game-saving block on Shai. Edwards averages just under 22 points a game against OKC in his last 10, while KAT has been steady with 19.2 points and nearly 12 boards per game in their last 5 meetings. Rudy Gobert has quietly upped his production too, averaging 13.3 points, 13.3 boards, and over 2 blocks across his last 16 games vs the Thunder.
It’s a heavyweight clash with stars everywhere, but don’t sleep on Minnesota’s recent success in this building—even if OKC has been steamrolling teams lately.
Stadium Record
Oklahoma City are 6-1 in its last 7 games at home. Minnesota are 6-2 in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City.
Head to Head Record
The season series was tied 2-2 and the Timberwolves have won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Best Bet
I think betting on the points in Game 1 is the way to go. The last 2 meetings saw both teams score over 120 pts, so hopefully it's no different in the playoffs. It should be a high scoring battle, headlined by Shai and Edwards, who are both in great shooting form. The Timberwolves are 3-1 against the Over in their last 4 games and OKC games have gone Over in their last 2 as well.
Same Game Multi
The Timberwolves have a good record in OKC and get the advantage of not going 7 games against the Warriors, so they could be the fresher team despite playing on the road. They're 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games and have won 5 of their last 6 road games. If the Timberwolves are going to cover, Edwards needs to play well and he's got form against the Thunder this season. He's also hit 25+ pts in 2 of his last 3 games.
Over 215.5 pts / Timberwolves +7.5 / Anthony Edwards 25+ pts = $4.20
