2024/25 NBA May 16 Betting Predictions
It's Game 6 in the West semi-finals on Friday when the Thunder will look to close out the Nuggets on the road. Here is a preview of the massive Game 6 clash.
Thunder at Nuggets (Game 6, OKC leads series 3-2)
The Thunder are just one win away from closing out the series, holding a 3-2 lead after a solid 112-105 victory in Game 5. Oklahoma City looked composed and confident on their home floor, and they’ve now won three of the last four games in the series. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was once again the difference-maker, putting up 31 points on 52.2% shooting, along with 7 assists and 6 rebounds. He’s averaging 30.4 points per game in the playoffs and continues to be a matchup nightmare for Denver’s defence.
Jalen Williams added 18 points, 9 boards, and 4 assists, though he had an off night shooting at just 35.7% from the floor. Still, his defensive work and energy on the glass gave OKC a big boost. Chet Holmgren, while not stuffing the stat sheet, added valuable rim protection with 3 blocks and altered several shots in the paint.
OKC’s depth continues to show — they had five players in double figures in Game 5 and shot 47.2% as a team. Their ball movement was crisp, tallying 25 assists on 41 made baskets. On defence, they held Denver to just 9-of-28 shooting from three (32.1%).
As the No. 1 seed in the West, OKC has lived up to expectations. They’re 6-4 in their last 10 road games and boast the second-best defensive rating in the playoffs so far. If they can keep up the pace and defensive intensity, they have a real shot at finishing this in six.
The Nuggets are in must-win territory after dropping Game 5, and despite the loss, Nikola Jokić put on an absolute masterclass. The reigning MVP racked up 44 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 assists on a blistering 68% shooting clip. He dominated the paint and midrange, scoring at will against multiple defenders. In the series, Jokić is averaging 34.2 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game — monster numbers that show just how much he’s carrying this team.
Jamal Murray chipped in 28 points, but his inefficiency (37% FG) and occasional defensive lapses hurt Denver down the stretch. Outside of the dynamic duo, though, the supporting cast continues to struggle. Michael Porter Jr. scored just 9 points on 4-of-13 shooting and was a -11 in plus-minus. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope combined for just 11 points and had trouble staying in front of OKC’s guards.
Denver’s biggest issue in Game 5 was perimeter shooting. They made just 9 of their 28 attempts from deep and didn’t get much production off the bench. As a team, they committed 14 turnovers, several of which led to easy transition points for OKC.
However, returning home could be the remedy. The Nuggets are 7-3 in their last 10 at Ball Arena and have covered the spread in 6 of those games. They also went 33-8 at home during the regular season — one of the best home records in the league. If they can tighten up defensively and get more from their role players, this series could easily head to a Game 7.
Stadium Record
Denver are 7-3 in their last 10 at home. Oklahoma City have won 6 of their last 10 in Denver.
Head to Head Record
The Thunder lead this series 3-2 and hold a 6-4 record in the last 10.
Best Bet
I think the Nuggets can force a game 7 by playing better on their home court. They have covered the line in 4 of their last 5 at home. OKC are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 and 1-5 ATS vs Nuggets.
Same Game Multi
If the Nuggets cover, Jamal Murray should play well. He's coming off 28 pts in Game 5 and has scored 20+ pts in 3 of his last 5. I like the Under trend in this matchup too. It's 10-4 when these two sides meet and the Thunder are 7-3 against the Under in their last 10.
Nuggets +4.5 / Under 216.5 pts / Jamal Murray 20+ pts = $5.50
