2024/25 NBA Playoffs May 14 Betting Predictions
The #4 seed Pacers face the top-seeded Cavaliers in Game 5 on Wednesday. With the Pacers holding a commanding 3-1 series lead, they’re poised to close out the series, while the Cavaliers fight to stay alive at home. In the West, the #4 seed Denver Nuggets face the #1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 in Oklahoma City. With the series tied 2-2, this is a massive game.
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers (Game 5, IND leads series 3-1)
The Pacers are flying high right now, heading into another clash with the Cavs after grabbing a 3-1 series lead. They absolutely smoked Cleveland in Game 4, winning 129-109 in Indy behind big games from Pascal Siakam (21 points on 90% shooting) and Myles Turner (20 points, 7 boards).
Indiana’s been dangerous all series, thanks to their deep rotation and red-hot shooting — they’ve hit over 50% from the field in each of their wins. Tyrese Haliburton’s been the heartbeat of the team, especially with his game-winning three in Game 2. He’s averaging 18.4 points and 10.7 assists in the playoffs, and he’s hit his 20.5 points + rebounds + assists line in five of six games.
The Pacers also owned the Cavs in the regular season, going 3-1 straight up, and they’ve been solid on the road lately too, covering in five of their last seven games in Cleveland. Keep an eye on Andrew Nembhard as well — he dropped 23 points in Game 1 and is logging major minutes at 34 per night.
The Cavs might be the top seed, but they’ve had a tough time slowing down the Pacers in this series. They dropped Game 4 in a big way, losing 129-109 in Indy, and now trail 3-1. Cleveland’s offence has been elite overall — scoring 136.2 points per 100 possessions in the first round — but they just haven’t been able to match Indiana’s firepower lately.
Injuries haven’t helped either, with Darius Garland (toe), Evan Mobley (ankle), and De’Andre Hunter (thumb) all banged up. Donovan Mitchell has been carrying the load, averaging 29.3 points per game in the playoffs, including a monster 48-point showing in Game 2.
Jarrett Allen has been a steady presence down low with 15.2 points and nearly 10 boards per game, racking up four double-doubles so far. Garland had 21 points on solid shooting in the last one, and Isaac Okoro added 13 on 83% from the field — but overall, Cleveland’s 1-6 ATS record at home vs. the Pacers is a real concern for punters.
Stadium Record
Indiana are 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland.
Head to Head Record
The Pacers lead the series 3-1 and hold a 6-4 record in the last 10.
Best Bet
The 228.5 point total aligns with the recent trends as this has been a high scoring series. As such, the Over is 7-1 in the Pacers last 8 road games and the Cavs are 5-0 against the Over at home. In the last 12 meetings, the Over is 8-4 as well.
Same Game Multi
I think the Pacers can cover. They're 6-1 ATS on the road and they won Game 1 & 2 on the road in this series. Turner has been consistently getting past the 15 point mark, he's hit 20 or more pts in 4 of his last 5 games.
Over 228.5 pts / Pacers +7.5 / Myles Turner 15+ pts = $4.70
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder (Game 5, Series tied 2-2)
The Nuggets head into Game 5 with the series tied 2-2, coming off a tough 87-92 loss at home to the Thunder. It wasn’t their best shooting night, with Nikola Jokic dropping 27 points and 13 rebounds but hitting just 31.8% from the field, while Christian Braun chipped in 17 points on 36.4% shooting.
Jokic has been huge all playoffs, especially at home where he’s averaging 45 combined points and rebounds, though interestingly, he’s stayed under 7.5 first-quarter points in 7 of 8 games — he tends to save his best for crunch time. Denver’s coming off a grueling seven-game series against the Clippers, but they’ve actually done well on the road in OKC, covering in 4 of their last 5 there.
Jamal Murray’s the wildcard — he’s struggled against the Thunder defense all season, shooting just 33.3% from the field, and didn’t do much to silence the doubters in Game 3. Still, with Jokic leading the way and some playoff experience on their side, the Nuggets can’t be counted out.
The Thunder head into Game 5 with the series tied 2-2 after grinding out a 92-87 win in Denver — a big bounce-back after dropping Game 4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way again with 25 points, 6 assists, and 6 boards on 42.1% shooting, while Aaron Wiggins chipped in 11 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. OKC’s been rock-solid all season, finishing as the NBA’s top seed and posting an impressive 56-30-4 ATS record.
Their elite defence continues to set the tone, and Shai’s been a handful for Denver — he’s scored 30+ in four of his last five games and had a monster 34-point, 8-assist outing in Game 2. Still, Denver exposed some cracks in Game 3, especially in crunch time, with Jokic doing whatever he wanted. The Thunder will be looking for better execution down the stretch this time around.
Keep an eye on Alex Caruso too — his defence has been crucial, and when Denver collapses on Shai, Caruso’s been making them pay from deep, like his 5-of-9 performance from beyond the arc in Game 1.
Stadium Record
Oklahoma City are 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games at home. Denver are 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Thunder lead 6-4.
Best Bet
The Thunder’s elite defence and home-court advantage make them favorites, with Gilgeous-Alexander likely to exploit Denver’s middle-of-the-pack defence. However, Jokic’s ability to control the game’s pace and Denver’s 4-1 SU in recent OKC visits keep this competitive. So I prefer the Under, which is 6-3 in the Thunder's last 9 games and 9-4 against the Nuggets.
Same Game Multi
Denver’s 6-2 ATS in recent road games vs. OKC suggests they can cover the generous +10.5 underdog line. Chet Holmgren is picking up about 13 boards per game and has 11 or more in 3 straight games, making 10+ a safe bet.
Under 220.5 pts / Nuggets +10.5 / Chet Holmgren 10+ Rebounds = $6.75
