2024/25 NBA Finals - Thunder at Pacers (Game 3)
After splitting the first two games in Oklahoma City, the series shifts to Indianapolis with Game 3 on Thursday morning. Here is a preview of a massive Game 3 matchup on the Pacers home court.
Thunder at Pacers (Series tied 1-1)
The Thunder head into Game 3 of the NBA Finals against the Indiana Pacers full of confidence after a commanding 123-107 win at home in Game 2. That victory gave them a 2-0 series lead and continued their dominant form at home this postseason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was once again the standout, pouring in 34 points to go along with 8 assists and 5 rebounds while shooting an efficient 52.4% from the field. He’s now scored 30 or more points in nine straight home playoff games, tying an NBA record. Alex Caruso also played a key role, contributing 20 points on 54.5% shooting in a strong two-way performance.
The Thunder, who finished the regular season as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, have now covered the spread in four consecutive games. They also hold a 3–1 record against the spread in their last four meetings with the Pacers, showing they’ve consistently been able to match up well against Indiana. Notably, SGA has been a major factor in those matchups, having scored 30+ points in each of his last six appearances against the Pacers — a trend punters will surely be watching closely.
However, while the Thunder have been near unbeatable at home, the road tells a different story. They’re just 0-7 against the spread in their last seven road games and have failed to cover in each of their last eight away games against teams with a winning record. That’s a glaring weakness heading into Game 3, as the series shifts to Indiana, where the Pacers have been solid on their home court all season.
This game presents a classic contrast: a red-hot Thunder team that’s rolling at home but faltering on the road, against a Pacers squad now fighting to stay in the series in front of their home crowd. Expect another big night from SGA, but keep in mind the Thunder’s road woes when considering your bets.
The Pacers head into Game 3 of the NBA Finals eager to turn things around after a tough loss in Game 2 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Pacers fell 123-107 on the road in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder’s dominant home performance and star power were on full display. Despite being the 4th seed in the conference, Indiana has found the going tough offensively in this series so far, with no player cracking the 20-point mark in the first two games — something they’ll definitely want to fix at home.
Tyrese Haliburton put up 17 points, 6 assists, and 3 rebounds on an efficient 53.8% shooting night in Game 2. But that was mostly in junk time. Myles Turner also contributed with 16 points and 4 assists, but Indiana struggled to keep pace with Oklahoma City’s firepower, especially given the Thunder’s strong shooting and relentless energy on their home floor.
While the offence hasn’t been firing on all cylinders, the Pacers have been consistent all season when it comes to covering the spread, boasting a solid record of covering in 11 of their first 16 playoff games. They’ve also shown resilience under pressure, having won every one of their last nine games following a loss — a testament to their mental toughness and ability to bounce back quickly. This experience will be crucial as they look to reset and come out stronger in front of their home fans.
Indiana’s home form has been impressive this season, with a 16-4 record in their last 20 games at home and a recent 14-5 run straight up, giving them a real boost heading into Game 3. Pascal Siakam has been a key contributor for the Pacers, scoring 21 or more points in each of his last five home games against the Thunder, showing he can step up when it matters most. Tyrese Haliburton has also been on a roll at home, scoring 20 or more points in each of the Pacers’ last three home games, giving Indiana a reliable offensive threat to lean on.
In addition to their strong home court advantage, the Pacers have a solid ATS record lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, which shows they’re often competitive and able to keep games close, an encouraging sign for bettors. With the series now shifting to Indiana’s home court, the Pacers will be looking to use their home crowd, improved offence, and tenacity to bounce back and keep their championship hopes alive. Expect a gritty, competitive matchup as the Pacers aim to even the series and make it a true battle for the NBA title.
Stadium Record
Indiana are 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home and 6-2 in this year's playoffs. OKC are 2-2 since 2022.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is tied 5-5 and the NBA finals are 1-1.
Best Bet
I think the Pacers will turn around their scoring issues on their home court, where they have scored 125 and 130 pts in their last 2 games at this venue. Haliburton and Siakam both have better scoring records at home too. The Thunder are 6-3 against the Over in their last 9 games and have an excellent 4-1 Overs record on the road against the Pacers. So I like the Over in Game 3 as the best bet.
Same Game Multi
Siakam has fallen below 20 pts in the first 2 games of this series but I except a better performance at home. He's scored 31 and 30 pts in his last 2 outings on his home court and has beaten 21+ pts in his last 5 home games against the Thunder. The Pacers stole a game on the road and I think they head home with a lot of confidence, despite a poor Game 2 performance. I think they'll be fired up after Game 2 and have covered in 7 of their last 10 games. They're also 8-3 against the spread as an underdog.
