The Knicks caused a Game 1 upset off the back of a big last quarter, led by Jalen Brunson. Will the Spurs bounce back in Game 2 to even up the series?
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Big win by the Knicks in Game 1, with a 23-point second half swing.
The Spurs will make adjustments, and based on that last quarter they'll need to change a fair bit to square the series one-apiece. A loss, and they can consider the NBA Championship all but gone.
Leg 1 - Spurs -6.5
When the away team has pinched Game 1 these playoffs, we've seen a response from the home team. It happened with Detroit and Orlando in the first round, the Spurs against Minnesota in the second round, as well as with OKC and against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.
The Spurs need to make some major adjustments, rotation regarding Dylan Harper, matchups as well as where Wemby catches the ball offensively, while the Knicks are in a strong position where they can save their potential adjustments and not show their hand.
As a result, San Antonio should win Game 2 easily.
Leg 2 - Stephon Castle Over 4.5 Rebounds
Only averaging 5.1 rebounds in the playoffs, but he's a proven rebounding guard across his short career and recent form is strong.
Stephon Castle is averaging 6 rebounds from his last nine games, covering this line in eight of those, including recording eight rebounds in Game 1.
Think we'll see another low scoring contest, so plenty of rebounding chances for Castle.
Leg 3 - Dylan Harper 10+ Points
They simply have to play him more in Game 2. Harper was instrumental for the Spurs with 16 points and 8 rebounds, but only played 28 minutes recording a plus-minus of -5.
That being said, only ten of those minutes were with both Castle and Wemby where the trio were +7 as a three-man lineup. Adjustments need to be made where these three players are playing close to 20 minutes together on floor.
Harper is averaging 15.3 points from his last three games, all of those playing less than 30 minutes. When playing 25+ minutes, Harper is averaging 16.8 points per game this post-season from a ten-game sample, hitting double digits in nine of those games. He is playing 25+ minutes in Game 2.
Same Game Multi
Spurs -6.5 / Harper 10+ Points / Castle Over 4.5 Rebounds = $4.20
Value Bet
No issue getting them up for Miles McBride. He's attempting 4.9 triples per game from his last 13 playoff games, and in his last two games including Game 1 he's attempted 5.5 triples.
The three-point percentage isn't too bad either, going at 42.3% over those 13 games, averaging 2.1 makes.
McBride knocked down two triples in Game 1, and with the unpredictability of Landry Shamet, he could see himself in an extended role in Game 2 playing around that 20-minute mark.
