2024/25 NBA Finals - Pacers at Thunder (Game 1)
The race for NBA finals glory is down to 2 teams and Game 1 starts on Friday. The Thunder are the #1 seed in the West and go in as favourites to lift the trophy for the first time. But the Pacers have proven themselves as underdogs all playoffs. This should be a great series and I'm here to preview the Game 1 action on Friday morning.
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Indiana Pacers are stepping into Game 1 of the NBA Finals with plenty of momentum and confidence after steamrolling the Knicks in their last outing, 125–108. Pascal Siakam led the charge with 31 points on 55.6% shooting, while Tyrese Haliburton continued his stellar postseason run with 21 points, 13 assists, and 6 rebounds on 52.9% from the floor. The Pacers may have finished the regular season as the 4th seed in the East (47–35), but their playoff performance has been anything but average.
They’re now 12–6 in the postseason and lead all playoff teams in field goal percentage while ranking second in scoring, thanks to a fast-paced offence that thrives in transition and from beyond the arc. Siakam has been on a tear, averaging 21.1 PPG in the playoffs and hitting the 15-point mark in nine straight games. He’s also been a rebounding force, especially against the Thunder, grabbing nine or more boards in six of his last seven matchups with OKC.
Haliburton, the floor general, is averaging 18.8 points and 9.8 assists in the postseason and has hit double-digit assists in his last four Game 1s. Myles Turner has anchored the defence with 2.3 blocks per game and will be a key factor in protecting the paint against OKC’s aggressive scorers.
From a betting standpoint, Indiana has been incredibly reliable — they’ve covered the spread in all three series so far as underdogs. They’re 45-36-2 ATS overall and 7-3 as road dogs. The Pacers have scored 110+ points in 14 of their last 16 games, are 10-3 straight up in their last 13, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Even more encouraging, they’re 8-4 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Thunder and 4-2 SU when playing in OKC.
In short, while the Thunder are heavy favourites, the Pacers are playing loose, confident basketball and could be a sharp play for punters looking for value in both the spread and player prop markets.
The Thunder come into Game 1 of the NBA Finals looking every bit like the league's top seed after obliterating the Timberwolves 124–94 in their last outing. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be unstoppable, posting 34 points, 8 assists, and 7 boards on 56% shooting. Chet Holmgren chipped in with 22 points on a blistering 61.5% from the field, showing off just how deep this OKC team is. They’ve now gone 12–3 in the postseason, backing up their dominant 64–18 regular season — the best in the league.
Offensively, the Thunder are a juggernaut, ranked third in playoff scoring, but what makes them even more dangerous is their defense, which sits fourth in points allowed. They’ve won seven of their 12 playoff games by double digits and are 6-0 straight up at home during the postseason. Shai has been the engine, averaging 29.8 PPG in the playoffs and scoring 31+ in seven straight home games. He’s also dishing it well — 8+ assists in four of his last five.
From a betting perspective, OKC is just as impressive. They’re 48-34-1 ATS overall, with a strong 26-14-1 ATS mark at home. They’ve covered in four of their last five and have been especially dominant early in series, often jumping out fast. Their defence and second unit give them a cushion most teams can’t match.
If there’s one area of concern, it’s their ATS record specifically against Indiana at home — just 2-4 in their last six. But considering how well they're playing right now, especially on their home floor, that trend might not hold much weight this time around. The Thunder are playing with confidence, execution, and a superstar in full command — they’re going to be a tough out for anyone, and the Pacers will need to bring their A-game to keep up.
Stadium Record
Oklahoma City are 6-0 on home court in the playoffs. Indiana are 4-2 in its last 6 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Pacers hold a 6-4 advantage. They last met in March with the Thunder winning 132-111 on their home court.
Best Bet
While the Thunder are heavy favourites to take out Game 1, I don't see the Pacers getting blown away. They have an impressive road record, covering in 6 of their last 7. In their last 8 playoff games, they have covered in 6. At this venue, they've won 4 of their last 6, which is a good sign coming into the NBA Finals. So I don't think they'll be overawed by the occasion or the spirited Thunder crowd. Take the Pacers to cover in Game 1.
Same Game Multi
Siakam has been a beast for the Pacers and won the MVP in the East finals, which was well deserved. So I like his 20+ pts line, he's beaten that in 3 of his last 5 games and went he's shooting well, he'll usually score 30 pts. For a safe bet, Jalen Williams has 8+ boards in 4 of his last 5 games. So 5 or more rebounds seems like a lock.
Pacers +9.5 / Siakam 20+ pts / Jalen Williams 5+ rebounds = $4.50
