Here is Michael Sullivan's comprehensive 2017 Melbourne Cup Runner-by-Runner Preview.
- Best Solution (Bluebet Price: $13)
Strong win in Caulfield Cup where suited by tempo but did plenty of work and still strong on the line. German form very strong and while hasn’t won past 2450m, he gives the impression that the trip will suit. Certainly one of the main winning hopes.
- The Cliffsofmoher (Bluebet Price:$16 )
The punters were all over him when heavily backed in the Caulfield Cup. Ran home strongly for third in a race that was hard to make ground. Has had two runs here now which will benefit him enormously and should have continued to improve. I think he is a top hope who is value at double figures
- Magic Circle (Bluebet Price: $9)
He has been well backed with Bluebet for weeks to win and it is easy to see why when you look at his European form. He has won 5 time beyond 3200m which means the trip won’t bother him but will want it to be a true staying test. A wet track would see him shorten up even further.
- Chestnut Coat (Bluebet Price: $34)
Japanese stayer who was disappointing in the Caulfield Cup when beaten over 10 lengths. Didn’t have a lot of luck that day but will need to have improved significantly to be a winning chance. This is what he has been set for and 3200m suits but will need to improve.
- Muntahaa (Bluebet Price: $11)
European stayer having first start in Australia which is of some concern but he was supper impressive winning the Ebor Handicap which has been a good form race from Europe for the Cup. Lack of a run here makes him hard to line up and while a definite winning chance doesn’t look great value at current quote.
- Sound Check (Bluebet Price: $34)
Had no luck in the Caulfield Cup when caught back and wide when that wasn’t the place to be. The step up to 3200m will suit and his European form around Best Solution is good. Would need all the favours to win but certainly a good roughie for exotics.
- Who Shot Thebarman (Bluebet Price: $41)
Grand old stayer having his fourth crack at the Cup after winning the Sydney Cup this year as 9yo. Chris Waller has him ticking over as well as ever but does look outclassed here as a 10yo. He is one you know who run a good solid race and will probably work home into a top half finish again.
- Ace High (Bluebet Price: $71)
Was super impressive winning the Derby here last year but hasn’t really come on enough to suggest a winning chance here. His Caulfield Cup run was poor after getting a good time of it in front and really hard to see him turning it around up in trip here. Would be a shock winner.
- Marmelo (Bluebet Price: $16)
The beaten favourite from last year who is coming in to the race fresh this year. Has been plenty of money around for him with Bluebet and I really like the fact gun jockey Hugh Bowman has elected to stick with him again this year. Not certain he is going well as last year but concede he has a chance.
- Avilius (Bluebet Price: $13)
He won four in a row when arrived in Australia before a gallant fourth behind Winx in the Cox Plate. He showed a brilliant turn of speed when winning in Sydney early in the preparation and then gutsed it out strongly when winning the Bart Cummings over 2500m. Some question mark at 3200m but one of the main chances.
- Yucatan (Bluebet Price: $5)
He won the Herbert Power like he was powered by a V8 and if you believe what you saw that day then it is hard to see how he gets beaten. Was simply superb that day and has gun jockey James McDonald to give him the right run. May be some question mark if gets really wet and at 3200m but he is the only one Bluebet punters have wanted in the past week and will be a strip out for bookies if he wins. Rightfully clear favourite.
- Auvray (Bluebet Price: $81)
Brave locally trained stayer who always tries hard but does look to be outclassed here. Well beaten in the Metropolitan and the St Leger which are both weaker than the Cup. Will run an honest race but a top 10 finish would be about the best he can hope for.
- Finche (Bluebet Price: $26)
Was very heavily backed in the Geelong Cup when having his first run in Australia but couldn’t run down the leader in a race that suited on pacers. His French form is very good and he did grind away well at Geelong. He will need to improve on that run but is trained by Chris Waller who will have him peaking and is a top 3 chance.
- Red Cardinal (Bluebet Price: $51)
Was well backed at good odds in the Cup last year but has never lived up to his reputation. His recent runs have been average at best and I find it hard to make any kind of case for him. Has Darren Weir training him and Damien Oliver riding which are big pluses but about the only ones.
- Vengeur Masque (Bluebet Price: $61)
He was flying last year when he missed a run in the Cup when would have been a chance. Sadly I don’t think he is going anywhere near as well as last year so a win would surprise. The Caulfield Cup run was sound but would need to continue to improve to be a winning hope.
- Ventura Storm (Bluebet Price: $26)
Was backed off the map with Bluebet when won the Moonee Valley Cup last start in what was his first win in 17 starts in Australia. He also got home very nicely in the Caulfield Cup but is a query at the trip. He is flying the preparation though and while a win would surprise, I don’t think he is hopeless and a trifecta chance.
- A Prince of Arran (Bluebet Price: $17)
He is a really good strong stayer who is in form after winning the Lexus at Flemington at Saturday. Was smashed by Yucatan in the Herbert Power but has won in Dubai over 3200m and should be rock hard fit and gets in with no weight. Should be strong at the end of two miles and a top 3 chance.
- Nakeeta (Bluebet Price: $81)
He was luckless in the race last year but form seems to have dropped right off since then. He ran near the tail in the Moonee Valley Cup and the winner of that race is a $26 chance here. It is very hard to make a case for him on that performance and would need to find some old form to be a hope.
- Sir Charles Road (Bluebet Price: $101)
Well performed Kiwi stayer but this is a massive step up in class. Placed in a Sydney Cup and the Bendigo Cup last week but this is whole different story and if he could work home well for a top 10 finish, I think connections would be delighted.
- Zacada (Bluebet Price: $126)
Another Kiwi who is suited to two miles but probably outclassed here. Ran a good race in the Sydney Cup when second to Who Shot Thebarman at huge odds but hasn’t done a lot since then. Would need a huge turnaround in form to be a place chance here.
- Runaway (Bluebet Price: $34)
Very honest local stayer trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Is a bold front running type who will be up on the speed and try to give them something to catch. He won the VRC St Leger here earlier in year and then ran them off their feet in the Geelong Cup. I think something will run him down here but will give them something to catch and concede he has a place chance.
- Youngstar (Bluebet Price: $16)
In form mare who was heavily backed with Bluebet to win the Caulfield Cup and has been well backed again here. We took one bet of $50,000 to $1000 each way in September and money has flowed steadily since as she has impressed all campaign. Was a super run when narrowly beaten by Winx in the Turnbull and then never had a chance in Caulfield Cup which I think was a forgive run. I think she is the best value runner in the field.
- Cross Counter (Bluebet Price: $9)
Trained by the excellent Charlie Appeleby and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, this lightly raced gelding has been attracting plenty of support from Bluebet punters. He has an impressive strike rate and fits the profile of some recent winners. He is among the better chances but is some query at 3200m and while can certainly win, not getting any overs at current price.
- Rostopovich (Bluebet Price: $23)
He was Ok in the Cox Plate when not suited by trip or WFA scale and this should be much more to his liking. He drops to 51kg and gun trainer Aidan O’Brien wouldn’t have bought him here for no reason. He will need to have thrived here but like the fact he had a run in Cox Plate and has to go in multiples.
Michael Sullivan's 2018 Melbourne Cup Top 4
Top 3
2. The Cliffsofmoher ($16)
11. Yucatan ($5)
1. Best Solution ($13)
Roughie
22. Youngstar ($16)
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