MELBOURNE CUP 2021
- TWILIGHT PAYMENT
Rising nine-year-old who returns to Flemington looking to become just the fifth horse in history to win successive Melbourne Cups. Won a very high rating Cup last year and continues to race well, coming off a runner-up performance in the Group 1 Irish St Leger at his last start. Tasked with the top weight of 58kg (2.5kg more than last year) so hard to see him going to a higher level but certainly runs well.
- INCENTIVISE
The revelation of the spring, having gone from winning a Sunshine Coast maiden in April to a last start demolition as favourite in the Caulfield Cup. Just continues to raise the bar this horse. I’m looking to take him on at the price. Will need to become just the second horse in the last 40 years to shoulder 57kg or more to win. Couple that with the fact he is unproven at two mile and coming out of some brutally run races. Can obviously win but short enough.
- SPANISH MISSION
One of just three imports contesting the cup this year but arguably one of the best credentialled to reach our shores in recent times. Racing well this year with a placing in the G1 Ascot Gold Cup before going toe to toe with Stradivarius last time out in the Lonsdale. That’s elite staying form. Looks to map nicely here midfield with Craig Williams in the saddle so he simply can’t be discounted and has been best backed to beat Incentivise.
- VERRY ELLEEGANT
Tackles the Cup for a second time after a very gallant 7th last year when flooding home (3rd fastest last 200m) from an impossible position. Well supported early $15-$12 off a good run in the Cox Plate. Started shorter than Incentivise in the Turnbull so easy to suggest that she has claims and she gets the services of James McDonald who just put on a Derby Day clinic. Would love a drop of rain but regardless I want her on my side.
- EXPLOSIVE JACK
Australian and SA Derby winner from the Autumn who looked to be warming up to something this preparation before a very plain run last time out in the Caulfield Cup. Certainly in the right camp who I’m sure will have him peaking for the day. If he could re-capture some of his form from earlier this year, then I could see him doing something at a big price.
- THE CHOSEN ONE
NZ galloper from the Baker/Forsman yard who lines up on Tuesday for his third tilt at the Cup after finishing 4th behind Twilight Payment 12 months ago. Thereabouts this preparation chasing Delphi home in the Herbert Power before a somewhat lacklustre run in the Caulfield Cup. Looking for two mile now but hasn’t been seen in the winner’s enclosure for over a year so hard to see him featuring.
- DELPHI
I think you have to forgive his run in the Caulfield Cup when he led at a brutal tempo before dropping out a long way from home. The market loved him on the day ($9-$5.50) so the $41 currently being shopped looks attractive. Gets back on top of the ground, retains D Oliver and drawn perfectly to sit in behind the speed. Looks the big overs in the race and expecting him to be supported.
- OCEAN BILLY
Former NZ galloper now with Chris Waller who had his first run in Australia in the Caulfield Cup when starting $101. Was far from disgraced holding his ground in the straight to finish 9th. Will be fitter for that outing and unlike many in this field he is a winner at 3200m, having taken out the Auckland Cup earlier this year. Would need to produce a big peak to win but could add juice to exotics.
- SELINO
This year’s Sydney Cup winner who settled a long way off them last start in the Caulfield Cup at $201. His work through the line was ok and he’ll appreciate getting to the wider spaces of Flemington, but hard to make a case for him winning all the same and especially from the draw.
- JOHNNY GET ANGRY
Last year’s VRC Derby winner who has done very little in four runs this time in. Beaten a combined 48 lengths in his last two starts in the Turnbull and Geelong Cup when L King reported the horse had an unusual breathing noise. Won’t be featuring here.
- KNIGHTS ORDER
On the quick back-up from the Hotham on Derby Day when leading them up before being collared early in the straight beaten 5 lengths by rival Great House. Well beaten prior to that in the Geelong Cup and the Bart Cummings. Outclassed.
- PERSAN
Solid stayer from the Maher/Eustace yard who was put right into the race by Linda Meech in the Caulfield Cup, and he did a good job to battle on to finish 3rd albeit beaten 5 lengths by Incentivise. Ran a very credible 5th in the Cup last year so you know he gets the trip. With that said he’s very exposed now and would need to improve to factor in the finish. Not for me.
- CARIF
Veteran of 37 starts with just the three wins to his name, the latest coming last November over 3200m in the Sandown Cup. Been chasing the pack in moderate Sydney staying form which doesn’t look the right lead-ups for a coming Cup winner. Long odds for a reason.
- MASTER OF WINE
Horse who looked to have lost his way before a rare glimpse of his ability in the Bart Cummings when he charged to the line behind Grand Promenade to produce race best closing sectionals. Started $26 in the Caulfield Cup and never really made an impression when settling rearward in the run but did find himself in the worst part of the track. I very much doubt he’ll get the 3200m so happy to be around him.
- PONDUS
The second of the Team Williams runners this year who comes through the different form line of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Was very well supported in betting there ($2.20SP) but had his chance when beaten by Lunar Flare. Whether or not that’s the A grade form is a question, but no doubt been set for this race and gets a very economical run having drawn the pole.
- GRAND PROMENADE
Been up for a long time but continues to run through brick walls coming off a very high rating win in the Bart Cummings. Settled just in behind a good gallop and took over to win smartly defeating key rival Tralee Rose who has since franked the form. Absolutely loves Flemington having won 3/5 at the course and finds K McEvoy. Will need a smart ride but is hard to knock.
- MIAMI BOUND
Just fair at the Valley battling on from off pace behind Floating Artist and Pondus. Does seem to save her best for Flemington but her best performances have clearly come on rain affected tracks. Won’t find that set-up on Tuesday. Looks tested
- PORT GUILLAUME
Lightly raced French import for the Lindsay Park operation who’s been well beaten at his past two starts. Harry Coffey takes the reins for his first ride in the Cup and although he gets in with the light weight, will have to go right back from the gate. Would need to improve greatly on what we’ve seen from him to be a winning factor.
- SHE’S IDEEL
Ultra-consistent mare who I thought ran a very credible race in the Caulfield Cup when she got home hard along the inside in the inferior ground. Brings some decent form with strong SPs prior to that through the Metropolitan and Kingston Town. Will see out the 3200m it’s just whether she finds herself too far out of the race from the draw. Nevertheless, think she runs better than her price suggests.
- FUTURE SCORE
Settled on-pace at Moonee Valley at just an even tempo and elected to make an early move when the pressure went on at the 600m. Was fairly weak to the line it must be said and he just doesn’t look to be going any good this prep. Hard to make a case.
- TRALEE ROSE
Consistent mare for Symon Wilde who cemented her spot on Tuesday with a tough win in the Geelong Cup. Loves Flemington, having never been outside the top two in four starts at the course and gets in light with the 50kg. Will need to go to a new level to win but is certainly progressive and has a sense of timing about her.
- FLOATING ARTIST
Genuine ticks about this horse. May not be coming out of the strongest lead-up but he no doubt should have won and was super strong through the line. His last 200m of 12.49 rated super on the day so the progression to two mile is what he’s looking for. Super fit and looks to receive the absolute gun run from the draw with just 50kg on his back. He looks the bet in the race to me and has already attracted early support $19-$15.
- GREAT HOUSE
Was on the borderline of gaining a start in the great race before taking out the Hotham and cementing his spot-on Derby Day. It was a dominant win it must be said, settling off pace before pouncing on Mankayan late to race away. Looks a tier below but he has race fitness on his side and Hotham winners have enjoyed a decent record in the Cup in recent times. Looks a lock for Top 10 players.
- SIR LUCAN
Intriguing runner who arrives on Australian shores now in the care of the Waterhouse/Bott team. Lightly raced with just 8 starts, he fits the bill of Northern Hemisphere horses who have been successful in the Cup in recent years. With that said, he looks a very one paced stayer so I’m not sure he has the brilliance to be competitive in a Melbourne Cup. Letting him go around without me.
TOP 4
- FLOATING ARTIST
- SPANISH MISSION
- VERRY ELLEEGANT
- DELPHI
Incentivise a worthy favourite but like I said I’m happy to take him on at the price. There looks good pressure in the race this year and with Twilight Payment drawn inside him, he’s likely to have to sit outside the lead. Not easy to do that at your first go at two mile. Floating Artist looks the bet to me. Not hard to argue he can produce a new peak rating here and with just 50kg he can be produced at the right time with a good map. Spanish Mission the class. Has to carry the big weight but this is far from a vintage Cup. Verry Elleegant thereabouts and Delphi can improve greatly.
GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!
