MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW 2022
Caulfield Cup runner up who backed that up with a very solid showing in the Cox Plate when racing with little luck. Progresses to the two miles for the first time in what will be his third run in three weeks. Must be a question mark at the trip and the fact remains, he has only won the one race in his career. Going well and the rain will enhance his chances but think he’s set a task with the top weight.
Long time Cup favourite after a sensational Autumn which saw her claim two Group 1’s. Underwhelming so far this spring, however backers would have been encouraged by the way she hit the line in the Caulfield Cup. Very strong sectionally in what was a slowly run affair. This has been the target all along and she looks like she’s been crying out for the two mile. Add in that she gets the services of H Bowman and there’s plenty to like. If she finds her best, I think she’s the one to beat.
Rising eight-year-old for the Waterhouse/Bott yard who continues to race in career best form coming off a placing in the Caulfield Cup at $16. Looks your likely leader with noted front running rider Tim Clark, so you’d have to think he’ll be in it for a long way. Winner of the Sydney Cup in the Autumn so we know he stays and won’t be deterred by any juice in the track. With that said, it’s hard to see him winning but looks a lock for top 10 players.
Pin up mare from the flying Payne yard who tackles the Cup for the first time as one of the leading local hopes. Started a raging hot favourite in the Hill where she went under before a return to form in the Caulfield Cup, where she was the real flashing light run. For mine, she might have been flattered that day by the slow pace and I think has to be a real big question mark at the trip. Happy to bet around her.
Consistent middle distance type who had every possible chance in the Caulfield Cup when fifth starting $12. A Group two winner earlier this year in QLD, he does look a step below the better credentialled runners and I fail to see him running out a strong 3200m. Not for me.
Interesting import for Ed Crisford who brings solid international form to this year’s race. Went toe to toe with Hukum earlier this season, with that horse subsequently going on to trounce his rivals in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. Followed that up with an effortless Group 3 win at York. No doubting he looks a progressive stayer and has shown in the past he can handle wet tracks. Major player and best backed to beat Deauville Legend. 7 CAMORRA Irish gelding now in the care of Team Hayes. Winner of the Curragh Cup two back before subsequently failing in the Irish St Ledger at an SP of $41. Despite finishing down the order that has proven to be a crucial Cup lead up in recent years and the winner Kyprios, is world class. He is an out and out dry tracker, so if we dodge the rain, I’d have him right in the mix. Wet and you almost have to put the pen through him.
Fits the profile we know so well in the Cup of late as that of a lightly raced Northern Hemisphere three-year-old. Stamped his credentials with a strong last start win in the Great Voltigeur, beating home El Bodegon who we’ve seen run well in a Cox Plate. Hasn’t been treated well at the weights with the 55kg and the other query is a wet track of which he is yet to see. Can obviously win but short enough.
A big thrill for Proven thoroughbreds to get the Joe Pride stayer Stockman into the race. Never runs poorly and was too good for his rivals in a strong rating St Leger at Randwick, whilst prior he hit the line in the Metropolitan alongside Durston, who has since franked the form. The big tick for him is the expected rain. The wetter the better. He would need to improve again to win but can only see him running well and can add some juice to exotics. Also had a nice hit out on Saturday at Rosehill in preparation for Tuesday
The 2019 Cup winner returns for his third tilt at the great race after being absent last year. Credit to Danny O’Brien and his team as the horse looks to have re-captured some of his best form after super runs in the Bart Cummings and the Caulfield Cup. The latter he was caught three wide the trip but still hit the line strongly. With that said, there isn’t a great spoil in his price at $17 but is hard to knock.
Bounces through a courageous run in the Cox Plate where he didn’t finish all that far off the winners in what was a moderately run affair. His effort prior in the Turnbull was good, but he may have also been flattered by the tempo and I’m not sold on that race as a form line. It remains that his only win to date in his career was a Geelong maiden on debut. Outclassed.
Was targeted at this race a long way out and brings a similar profile to the favourite as a lightly raced three-year-old colt. Ran runner up in the Epsom Derby earlier this year before crossing the line with Deauville Legend in the Gordon over 2400m, so easy to tie in. Failed since in the St Leger and does look a very dour type, so may not have the brilliance to win a Cup. Hard to assess but I’m happy to let him go around without me.
The likely leader of the race with Knights Order. Lead them up on Saturday in the Group 3 and it took a pretty good horse in Surefire to get passed it. Will give a bit of cheek in front but certainly doesn’t want it too wet and with expected pressure on up front will struggle to hold on and may find the last 600m of the race tough. Not likely
Campaigned well in the Autumn, culminating in an Adelaide Cup triumph and then a 3rd placing in the Sydney Cup behind Knights Order. Has failed to recapture that form this time in with down the order finishes in the Foundation Cup and the Bart Cummings. Proper stayer but hard to make a case, especially on rain affected going.
Went around a live chance at $15 in last year’s Cup when running 6th to Verry Elleegant. Tackles the race for the second time on the quick back-up after what looked a flat run in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, when beaten a widening margin. The positive is he loves Flemington, having won 3/6 at this course. At the same time doesn’t look to be going as well as last year and can’t see him featuring.
Tough stayer from the Bjorn Baker camp who’s been up since April but continues to run through brick walls with strong efforts in Sydney. Knocked off Francesco Guardi who is flying a few runs back then was just touched off by Stockman last start in the St Leger. Fitness certainly won’t be an issue nor will the rain. Would need to go to a new level to win but can certainly run better than his price suggests.
Last start Geelong Cup winner to get a start in the big one. Surefire was runner up in that race so the form looks solid. Racing well and certainly is one that needs to be included in all multiples and any players looking for value. With 51kg and a nice barrier should get a lovely run and will be saved for one last shot at them . Certainly ticks a lot of boxes. 18.LUNAR FLARE Flying this gelding for Grahame Begg winning the Bart Cummings before chasing Francesco Guardi gallantly last week in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Whilst he was no match for the winner, they gapped the rest in what was a high rating edition. First go at 3200m but honest as the day is long and can see him running a race.
Caulfield Cup favourite whom the weights and measures punters jumped out of trees to back. Perhaps not ridden to advantage, but feel he had his chance and struggle to get him in the conversation with some of the better stayers engaged in this race. SP profile punters will have a look at him but he’s a level below for mine and one we’re happy to let the punters on.
Looked like she hadn’t come up this prep but produced a hidden run in the Caulfield Cup when chopped out in the straight before going to the line hard held. Set to peak here 4th up and gets in light again. Would be an unbelievable training performance if she was to be winning on Tuesday.
Lightly raced Irish import has been less than impressive his last few starts including a fading 14th in the lead up race The Herbert Power. Will appreciate the sting out of the ground but on what we have seen its last couple of runs in Australia would have to be looking to others.
Last start Bendigo Cup winner that although in lesser grade than this has been racing consistently well. Obviously is a big step up here to the Melbourne Cup and has to be a slight query at the 3200m. That being said will appreciate the sting out of the ground, is racing well and is trained by the great Maher Eustace juggernaut team. Has a nice barrier and if can get a nice soft economical run could be one that pops up at big odds. Certainly a value place chance
Has had big wraps on him since arrived in Australia. Has been very well supported its last few starts and wouldn’t surprise to see another market nibble on the day of the big race. Always seems to be there or thereabouts just hasn’t quite been finishing his races off. Does get in with 50kg and has Froggy on board. Wouldn’t surprise to see it peaking on the day and will be hitting the line hard. Good roughie at $41
Can make a case to say she should have won the Metropolitan. Had absolutely no luck in running and was forced to make a long-sustained run and was only beaten half a head. As we’ve seen Durston has franked that form, so she’s in the conversation. Gets conditions to suit with just the 50kg to lug. TOP 4
- DUAIS
- WITHOUT A FIGHT
- DEAUVILLE LEGEND
- STOCKMAN
