MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW 2023
1.GOLD TRIP
2022 Melbourne Cup winner, who returns looking to become just the fourth horse in history to win back-to-back Cups. Absolutely flying this prep, with a big win in the Turnbull before two perfect tune ups in the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. Carries the top weight again, but it’s a congested weight scale this year and he’s drawn nicely for an economical run with that man McDonald going aboard. Loves Flemington. Obvious claims but does seem short enough in early markets.
2. ALENQUER
Arrived on Australian shores early this year with a handy CV, being a previous Gold Cup winner and a starter in last year’s Arc De Triomphe, where he finished midfield. Warmed up for this by hitting the line solidly in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time out (fastest last 200m sectional of the race). Not sure that’s the A1 form but it does appear he is looking for more ground now. Would be a fairytale finish for Damien Oliver riding in his final Melbourne Cup but would need to improve significantly to be in the finish. .
3. WITHOUT A FIGHT
I’m quite bullish on the Caulfield Cup winner, who’s had a faultless preparation and a fantastic season after racing into form over the QLD winter carnival. Question marks on his staying ability at two mile after failing last year, but much more suited on dry ground, and his late strength at the end of a brutally run Caulfield Cup was telling. More acclimatised now and not hard to predict further improvement third up. Zahra sticks. Can claim the Cups double. .
4. BREAKUP
Japanese stayer who was very solidly supported $15-$10 in the Caulfield Cup in what was a good pipe opener for Tuesday. Looked flat late but sat handy enough to a good speed and dragged the winner into the race. Have to respect the Japanese when they travel their horses, and he looks one of only a handful of proper stayers in the race. Couple that with his second up record which is very good, and I think you can make a strong case. Question marks on where he gets too from the draw but there’s no doubt I want him on my side at $18.
5. VAUBAN
Long time Cup favourite who’s more commonly seen over the jumps, being a three-time Group 1 winning hurdler in Ireland. Willie Mullins brings this gelding to Australia in good form, winning impressively over the Royal Ascot carnival before claiming a Group 3 at his latest outing. Understandable hype around him and from all reports he couldn’t have worked any better. Looks incredibly short though for me and at the price I’ll be taking him on heavily.
6. SOULCOMBE
Can Moreira get him out the gates? That aspect alone looks crucial to this horse’s chances after blown starts have cost him dearly in the Turnbull and the Caufield Cup. Hit the line super in both and been sectionally terrific in all four starts this prep. A low draw gives him the chance to settle closer and if he can, he looks awfully dangerous. No issues at 3200m and back to Flemington is a real tick. Hard to totally trust but looks a strong winning chance.
7. ABSURDE
Second of the Willie Mullins Irish raiders who was a winner of the Ebor Handicap before making his way to Melbourne. Lightly raced with just 15 starts, he ran second to Vauban at Royal Ascot ($6 SP) so you can easily tie him in despite the losing margin. That SP alone gives him claims and he’s drawn well here with a world class rider in Zac Purton aboard. Profiles as another horse that will stay all day and as such, I think some value at his current quote.
8. RIGHT YOU ARE
Consistent middle-distance type for the all-conquering Maher/Eustace team who was very solid in the Caulfield Cup running into 5th at $41. Loves it at Flemington, having only missed a place once in six starts at the course. With that said, he does look a step below some of the better credentialled runners and this will be his first go at 3200m. Runs well but outclassed.
9. VOW & DECLARE
Cup winner of 2019 returning for his fourth tilt at the great race. Absolute credit to Danny O’Brien and the team who continue to race him soundly after he looked gone a few years ago. Showed his toughness again this prep with closing efforts in the Might and Power and the MV Gold Cup. The latter he was caught three wide the trip but still hit the line strongly. Drops 1.5kg from last year. As tough as old boots and whilst I struggle to see him winning, he’s hard to knock and one to look at for top 10 players.
10. CLEVELAND
Targeted betting move for him late in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the punters duly saluted after McDonald lifted him over the line. Solid in Sydney prior to that with grinding efforts in the Metrop and St Leger. Negatively weighted here and drawn the carpark in 23. Not for me.
11. ASHRUN
Had three years off the scene due to injury after last being seen as a starter in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, where he ran very credibly as a $26 chance. Have been quite taken with his efforts in the Bart Cummings, making up good ground on an on-pace dominated day. Then at Geelong, where he was unsuited by a sit sprint tempo. Would not surprise at $41 and can add juice to exotics.
12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR
Ran a very sound race last year when finding the line from a long way back. Failed to recapture that form this time in however and been well beaten in his four starts this preparation. Lacks the turn of foot I think to be competitive, and the negative racing pattern makes it hard.
13. OKITA SOUSHI
Stable representative for Joseph O’Brien, who has tasted great success in the Cup in recent times.
Like Vauban, was a winner at the Royal Ascot carnival in the Duke of Edinburgh before failing in the Irish St Leger. Must be said his Caulfield Cup run was flat, racing towards the rear and failing to make much of an impression after coming off the bit a long way from home. Hard to have.
14. SHERAZ
Sydney Cup placegetter from last year who’s struggled to recapture any form in 2023. Down the track placings in the Bart Cummings and MV Gold Cup at his latest and I think needs wet ground to find his best. Won’t be featuring here.
15. LASTOTCHKA
Interesting French import who joins the Price/Kent Jnr yard for the Australian Bloodstock juggernaut. Looks a pint-sized mare but her international form reads quiet well and is a winner at 3100m at her latest. Everything out of the camp is very positive and gets the services of Craig Williams with just 51kg. Drawn out but can roll forward and with luck past the post the first time, she can certainly run a race. Overs.
16. MAGICAL LAGOON
Failed to capture any form in two preparations in Australia now for Chris Waller. Rolled forward in the Geelong Cup and afforded every possible on a soft tempo when collared in the shadows. Other horses open to more improvement out of that and just does not have any ratings that would be competitive here.
17. MILITARY MISSION
Consistent galloper for the in-form Waterhouse/Bott yard who cemented a Cup start with a stylish win in the Herbert Power. That form does look B grade with the 2nd placegetter United Nations since failing on Derby Day. Drawn for a nice run and very fit but has to go to a new level.
18. SERPENTINE
One of the speed influences in the race who’s been solid this time in without winning. Nice foundation 4th up after three runs at 2400/2500m and gets some weight relief with just 51kg. Another I see struggling to win the race but can improve.
19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
Jumped out of the ground in the Autumn when narrowly beaten in the AJC Derby. Lacklustre this prep after being well supported in the Geelong Cup at his latest. Not the strongest form line for this in my opinion and making up the numbers on Tuesday.
20. MORE FELONS
Intriguing runner for the Waller stable who had his first Australian run at Geelong when closing intently out wide and against the race shape. Open to improvement 2nd up and has form over two mile in the UK. Finds Jamie Kah fresh off a Derby Day double but has come up with the visitors draw in 24. Likely ridden cold but with an expected hot tempo, I think he’ll be picking off a few late.
21. FUTURE HISTORY
Been up since June this horse but just continues to run through brick walls racing his way into the Cup with an all the way win in a solid rating Bart Cummings. Clearly relishing his racing and was very good again at Moonee Valley in the Gold Cup when racing wide for much of the race. Set for this and from a middle draw looks one of the better mapped runners in the race. Sense of timing about him and can only see him running well.
22. INTERPRETATION
Bendigo Cup winner on the quick back-up from Wednesday. Dropped right out of this race last year when starting $51 in the market. Lacks the depth of form for mine and one we’re happy to let punters on.
23. KALAPOUR
Rising seven-year-old who claimed this year’s Archer on Derby Day with a vintage front running ride from Damien Oliver. Deadset stayer but very one-paced and I think lacking the brilliance to win a Melbourne Cup.
24. TRUE MARVEL
Ran 2nd in this year’s Sydney Cup and looked the winner only to be run down late by Explosive Jack. Struggled this Spring being beaten a combined 18 lengths in his past two starts. Out of form.
Melbourne Cup Best Bets
- WITHOUT A FIGHT
- SOULCOMBE
- LASTOTCHKA
- BREAKUP
