2021 TJ SMITH STAKES PUNTING PREVIEW
WFA
1200M
$2,500,000
HEAVY 8 (SOFT 5/6 Predicted)
RAIL – TRUE
| # | Form | Horse | Trainer | Jockey (barrier) | Weight (kg) |
Current Price |
| 1 | 21x54 | BIVOUAC | JAMES CUMMINGS | H BOWMAN (2) | 58.5 | $3.90 |
| 2 | 72x12 | NATURE STRIP | C WALLER | J B MC DONALD (5) | 58.5 | $3.60 |
| 3 | 04x11 | EDUARDO | J PRIDE | B AVDULLA (8) | 58.5 | $4.40 |
| 4 | 14x71 | ZOUTORI | MATHEW ELLERTON & SIMON ZAHRA | L CURRIE (10) | 58.5 | $34.00 |
| 5 | 8x131 | MASKED CRUSADER | M HAWKES | K MCEVOY (7) | 58.5 | $7.50 |
| 6 | 13x54 | DIRTY WORK | M HAWKES | D LANE (9) | 58.5 | $34.00 |
| 7 | 22x32 | ORDER OF COMMAND | D O'BRIEN | D OLIVER (6) | 58.5 | $51.00 |
| 8 | 6111x | ELEVEN ELEVEN | G HICKMAN | KEAGAN LATHAM (3) | 58.5 | $51.00 |
| 9 | 183x3 | LIBERTINI | A CUMMINGS | TOMMY BERRY (1) | 56.5 | $9.00 |
| 10 | 752x5 | HAUT BRION HER | C WALLER | JAMIE KAH (4) | 56.5 | Scratched |
| 11 | 1x204 | SEPTEMBER RUN | C WALLER | C WILLIAMS (11) | 54.5 | $11.00 |
OVERVIEW
It’s one of Australia’s premier sprint races and this year’s TJ looks an absolute beauty, with a number of old head sprinters set to take on a few up and coming stars. Nature Strip will be shooting for back to back wins in the race having claimed the 2020 edition in dominant fashion. He currently heads the market at $3.60 with BlueBet, but the early money has been for the Godolphin galloper Bivouac $6 $3.90.
SPEED MAP
Speed looks fairly predictable here with natural speedsters NATURE STRIP and EDUARDO set to renew rivalries after a blockbuster finish 5 weeks ago in the Challenge. NS is drawn inside of the Joe Pride galloper this time so expect him to hold the rails and Eduardo to sit on his outside. BIVOUAC can stalk the speed from the inside draw from LIBERTINI and MASKED CRUSADER not all that far away. ORDER COMMAND and ELEVEN ELEVEN the next pair, with ZOUTORI, DIRTY WORK and SEPTEMBER RUN all going back.
ANALYSIS
Think this race sets up great for BIVOUAC and he is the one I want to be with. Think there’s been merit in his two runs this preparation. First up he started $2.10 in the Lightning when racing a little flat but he has never really been a fresh horse. Loved his run the other day in the Canterbury (1300m) when he again had the $3.00 SP and just raced a little fiercely on a day where it was critical that you raced on speed and on the inside. He did plenty wrong in the run but was still able to find the line when unsuited. Love the set-up now with a little freshen up and a trial in between. Bowman takes the reins and from the inside draw he looks set to stalk the speed set up by Nature Strip and Eduardo. Third up last preparation he absolutely exploded in the VRC Sprint coming off a very fast run Everest. He looks equally as well primed here. Would like the track on the drier side for him but I think we’ll get back to the SOFT range which shouldn’t pose him any issues. NATURE STRIP and EDUARDO the natural dangers with both seemingly in career best form. They renew rivalries out of the Challenge 5 weeks ago where Eduardo was able to edge out NS in a photo. NS has to extend to 1200m now after two runs at the 1000m. Obviously capable of winning and the soft track/draw are to his advantage. Happy to be against Eduardo. His figures have been huge this preparation, including a 3.5 length romp last start in the Galaxy when he ran them ragged in front. Have to note that I think he’s had favourable track conditions in both of those wins and he finds a different set-up this time where he’s unlikely to find the rail. He has to come off those big figures at some stage and with a true run 1200m, I have to take him on. MASKED CRUSADER and SEPTEMBER RUN are the new kids on the block. Bring a different formline here having run in the G1 William Reid at their last starts. Masked Crusader announced himself on the night but he was advantaged racing on the inside. September Run was huge hitting the line hard against the bias with the fastest last 200m of the meeting. A good tempo will be to their advantage but this is their stiffest test to date at Weight-For-Age. LIBERTINI’S chances are enhanced with a drier track.
STRATEGY
BIVOUAC ($3.90)
Happy to be in the corner of Bivouac who looks primed here third-up off the little freshen up. Finally draws a gate in Sydney to really stalk what should be a genuine tempo and he’ll get his chance topping the rise. The best figure of his career came 3rd-up last preparation so he looks the coiled spring, ready to explode come Saturday. Add to the fact that he gets a positive jockey change with H Bowman going aboard and there are plenty of ticks.
GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!
