2023 COX PLATE PREVIEW
Fantastic race this year and no shock to see cases made for several runners. I’ve marked Fangirl favourite and think she should be favourite coming off what was a demolition job in the King Charles. Sat handy to a soft speed and just left them standing late, running right through the line to give every indication that 2000m will be no issue. Won at 1850m as a three-year-old on her least preferred surface, clocking best of the day closing sectionals so I’ll trust that she’ll see it out strong. Would have loved her to draw low but it’s not a bad draw where she is at the Valley to wind into the race at the school Makybe Diva style, and there is no doubt she has the best turn of foot in the race. Had a great prep and peaks here 4th up with Purton in the saddle. Price likely to stand up with the mappers against her and with the world tote in operation, would suggest we play that way.
Away from her, I think the three-year-olds hold great intrigue. Militarize I’ve been on the back of in the Golden Rose and the Caulfield Guineas and I just think the race shape was against last start. Looks primed for 2000m now and if he can take up a position from the draw, I think he’s right in the race. King Colorado likewise. His run in the Guineas was equal too if not better than Militarize and he’s another that looks suited by the step up in trip. Think they need to roll the dice and roll forward from the draw. With early luck in running, $26 seems a massive price and I think you have to have him on side.
The Weight for Age regulars in Mr. Brightside, Alligator Blood and Zaaki will all have admirers. Mr. Brightside ran well in this race last year but if anything, that was a flat run last start for mine. Gets every possible again here from the draw but I can’t have him as a single figure chance. Alligator Blood comes off a stern win in the Might and Power where they flew early and walked to the line. Potential gut buster? Potentially, but hard to pot especially out of this camp which is simply airborne. Again, gets favours on the map but I just see some horses being sharper than him in the finish. Zaaki with an interrupted prep and I’d be shocked if he won.
Romantic Warrior I’ll take a good set against. People want to tell you he’ll bounce out of the Turnbull, but a hard run like that on speed when you’re already an underdone horse is very hard to come back from. Add to that the travel and for me a question mark on the Hong Kong form, I’ll happily let him go around without me and he makes the race. Gold Trip I’ll bet around too despite being airborne. I know he should have finished closer in this last year but 2400-2000 is a negative for mine and that was a brutally run Caulfield Cup. Blinkers added to try and replicate that sharpness but again I think others are more primed in terms of set up. Victoria Road always hard to line up with the market your only real guide. Looks a dour type off what I have seen so will put him in and if he beats me, he beats me. Little hope to My Oberon (despite going really well), Pinstriped and Duais.
VERDICT
Fangirl a good bet for me. Had a fantastic prep and the dominance of her last start win was there for all to see. Looks primed. The three-year-olds the big question mark of the race. I’m making both winners. In what looks a very even Cox Plate, they potentially might have the upside to overturn some of the mainstays. Romantic Warrior hard against.
Good luck punters
SATURDAY SET
MOONEE VALLEY
Race 1 – 3. TAUNTING – Thought you could get your day off to a good start in the first at the Valley. Nice last start rating and platform for this. Drawn to stalk with D Lane aboard. 6/4 plus looks fair.
Race 4 – 7. DIVINE GLORY – Even race this and presents some value at $17. Peaks 4th up with a positive jockey change and just sits in behind them from the low draw. Each-way.
Race 10 – 10. SCHWARZ – Looked very smart on debut at Gosford despite not lighting up the clock. Meets a field largely out of form here and gets map favours with McDonald going aboard.
RANDWICK
Race 3 – 16. SHARP SHOCK – Lightly raced galloper who’s come back in good order this preparation. Suited out to 1200m and with rain around in Sydney that will enhance his chances. Can be on at the price.
Race 4 – 8. SEQUESTERED – Flying with two wins on the trot over potentially unsuitable trips. To the mile to her advantage and can see her maintaining the picket fence with a perfect run from the draw.
Race 7 – 12. TUTTA LA VITA & PORT LOCKROY – Tom Kitten the one to beat but does look short and maybe the Gloaming isn’t the form? Tutta La Vita comes through a strong run in the Flight where she kept finding the line. Trialed well since. Port Lockroy was every bit as good as some in the market here in the Dulcify. Confidence boosting win in the midweeks since and ever improving.
Race 8 – ROOTS & DALCHINI – Loved Roots return savaging the line despite little luck in the straight. Hopefully settles closer and will be in the finish. Dalchini tries hard every start. Look for her blousing late and easy to be on her at $51.
