ROYAL RANDWICK PREVIEW 30/09/2023
GROUP 1 - EPSOM HANDICAP
1600m
3YO & Upwards
OVERVIEW
A wide-open Epsom, as is often the case in these great Randwick handicaps. Hope In Your Heart the horse for me. Never saw daylight in the Tramway when starting hard in the market at $6. Stylish trial in the interim and absolutely suited getting out to the mile here with the blinkers going on first time. You look at her runs last preparation and they were deadest out of this world. Managed herculean efforts in both the Coolmore and Doncaster. Just tries her guts out every time and never runs poorly. Hoping Willo finds a spot midfield or just worse from ten allowing her to find the lanes and blend in at the right time.
Kovalica the one who I think improves dramatically. The market told you he had none first up going $5-$15 and he just looked like his wheels spun when the sprint went on. Trialed nicely since and another suited now out to the mile and the in-form Moreira goes on. Well enough found at $9 but could be on if starts longer.
Olentia an interesting runner. Her first up figure was superb before she copped a bad steer in the Tramway when carrying a dominant $2.60 SP. I thought her run in the Bill Ritchie was good getting back against a slow tempo. Hit the line in race best sectionals. 1600m for the first time now. Will need luck from the gate but with the light weight I can see her attacking the line and at $26 I want to be on her.
VERDICT
Good bet Hope In Your Heart and I’d be surprised if she’s not in the finish. Having something on Olentia and can make Kovalica a winner at a better price. Great race.
GROUP 1 – FLIGHT STAKES
1600m
3YO Fillies
OVERVIEW
Market thinking the Tea Rose form stacks up with Tiz Invincible a dominant favourite in early markets. She got things to suit but was dominant all the same and does look hard to beat again but no value in that price. I couldn’t back Kimochi to beat her and Tropical Squall, who I was on in the Tea Rose, was only fair. Gone looking for the different form again and it has to be Mollynickers. She dominated in her only go 1400m last preparation at Caulfield giving every indication the mile would be no issue. Super on resumption at the Valley when attacking the line behind Charm Stone who ran well in a Golden Rose. 1200-1600m is less than ideal but hoping she can use the gate and settle a little closer in the run. She’s been backed early $11-$7 which I like so happy to be in her corner.
Unique Ambition was the other horse I backed in the Tea Rose, and it was an ugly watch. Looked like she had plenty to give but ran into traffic for most of the straight. Unfortunately, she’s priced as if she would have done something at $10 but she clearly looks the horse of upside in the field. Likely goes back from the draw but finds McDonald. At $13 plus and with track bias established we can have her on side.
VERDICT
Mollynickers and Unique Ambition the horses of interest and happy to invest smaller on them than be with the favourite.
GROUP 2 – PREMIERE STAKES
1200m
3YO & Upwards – WFA
OVERVIEW
All roads lead to Think About It for me. Yes, this is an Everest tune up and he’ll likely have improvement to come, but he looks too good for these. Trials have been absolutely sensational, looks to have come back even better. This stable’s shown in the past they can turn a G1 miler (Private Eye) into a sprinter and I’m sure the same methods have been applied here. Gets the gun run from the low draw and is stronger than the lot of these. Think he’s a freak and think he wins. Won’t bet at evens but don’t want to back anything to beat him.
VERDICT
Think About It to win.
OTHER BETS
R1 – 4. PHILIPSBURG – Given next to none at his last three starts. Huge jock change with Shinn going aboard and primed here at 1800m back to Midway grade.
R4 – 8. UNSPOKEN – Tough first up win over the shorter trip. Fitness edge on rivals and gets run of the race from the low draw.
R5 – 3. TANNHAUSER & 14. ASHFALL – This looks a much more open race than what the market suggests. Tannhauser was a sneaky run on resumption charging right through the line. Owns a strong win this course and distance. Ashfall was specked and raced with little luck in a good race. Massive price here.
