GROUP 1 – GOLDEN ROSE RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW
3YO
Set Weights
SPEED
Doesn’t look a stack of pressure here with the likes of Moravia, Libertad and Butch Cassidy pushing forward to have a crack for the lead. Snapback pushed forward as he got up in trip last campaign so potentially another stamped urgent? Cylinder drops into a stalking position along with Charm Stone holding a spot from the paint. Encap and Don Corleone get nice spots from Militarize who can settle closer from the low draw. Those drawn wide in King Colorado, Shinzo, General Salute, and Nadal, all look to go back.
- MILITARIZE (Moreira/Waller) (2)
This is one of the horses I want to be on. Dominant Autumn two-year-old who stamped his class taking out both the Sires and the Champagne in convincing fashion. Thought he trialed really solidly before resuming in the Run to the Rose ($19 SP) in what was a perfect tune up. Went back in the small field with the big weight and against just an even tempo he savaged the line, with a race best 10.76 final 200m sectional (4th best day). Ticks galore on Saturday stepping up to the 1400m with a good jockey change and the low draw. Settles closer in the run and gets the blinkers on first time. Train of thought that he might be wet track only, and while I’m sure a wetter surface would enhance his chances, his run first up was as good as any, and I can’t see the surface bringing him unstuck. If there was more pressure in this race, I think he’d be a deadest certainty. Looks a real high-pressure beast who can absorb that kind of race shape and be strong off it. Nonetheless, he looks primed to me on Saturday and at $8, it’s an easy bet to have.
- SHINZO (Moore/Waller) (10)
Is he the best horse in this race? He’s going to have to be tackling 1400m first up in what is an unconventional set up. Slipper winner who returns to the races off the two trials. The first a quiet hit out at Canterbury where he nearly fell out the gates so was given an easy time of it. The second was a super piece of work at Rosehill. Cruised in behind them before taking over at the 200m and giving Zaaki windburn in the process. So, what do we do with him? For mine, he’s hard to completely pen. You can’t doubt the camp, and I’m sure the plan is first up Rose to keep some freshness in the legs for a possible Everest tilt second up. What was interesting was how much he improved from one start to the next at two. It could be that he’s come back an entirely different beast at three, but it begs the question if he will improve into the prep. The map also looks tricky. All but assured of being back in the field here in a race that looks devout of genuine tempo. Gets Moore who could offset this with another peach but alas, I have to bet around him. Think the market and yard are crucial with him. If he’s solid, he’ll be there to win. Wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see him in the finish but against at current prices.
- CYLINDER (Rawiller/Cummings) (6)
Current race favourite whom I’m happy to take on on Saturday. Been good without being brilliant in two runs back this time. Started a dominant favourite first up in the Vain ($1.50) before winning a blanket Run to the Rose, again with a dominant SP anchor ($2.50). I think the Run to the Rose suited him to a tee. He’s a horse with a short sharp turn of foot, so being held up for so long in behind them was actually a blessing in my book. Was of course good in winning but I’ve got big question marks at 1400m. Gets every possible with Nash and a good map and will look the winner at some stage. Confident something picks him up though and goes past.
- KING COLORADO (Collett/Maher & Eustace) (9)
JJ Atkins winner who was superb in his first preparation leaping from a Kembla maiden to a Group 1, in which he was completely steamed in the betting $51-$14. Returned with a solid run in the G1 Winx where he had a chequered path for most of the straight, so never fully tested. Lines up here five weeks between runs with a trial, where he did hit the line with good intent, albeit taking a while to wind up. Think he’s a super talent but may already be crying out for more ground. With the wide draw I think he spots them a start on Saturday and might just not have the turn of foot to go with a few of these. Think he’s in for a nice prep all the same and will be following as he steps up in trip. Unders for mine currently.
- DON CORLEONE (/Team Snowden) (5)
Honest campaigner who raced right through the features as a two-year-old running good placings in the Blue Diamond and Sires, after a very credible 4th placing in the Slipper. Resumed in the Run to the Rose where he was slightly soft in the betting $9-$11 and actually had excuses, being forced to race in a 3 wide spot for most of the race. Did a good job to battle on and be beaten less than 1.5 lengths. If anything, it’s a slight drag on the race for him to finish as close as he did. Forecast for a much more sympathetic run on Saturday and sure to improve second up but couldn’t see him figuring in the finish.
- LIBERTAD – SCRATCHED
- MORAVIA (Schiller/Freedman) (4)
Yet to finish outside the top two in three starts, the Snitzel colt tackles the Rose 4th up first prep, after doing a good job ever since winning a 900m race on debut at Newcastle. Chased Libertad gamely in the San Domenico, before leading them up in The Run to the Rose only to be collared by Cylinder in the shadows. Every possible there it must be said and with hard luck stories in behind, as well as horses certain to improve, I’d say he’d have to come on again to be any chance in this. In the right camp to make the jump and T Schiller sticks from a good draw. Can see him having some admirers but I think drifts from the current $13 quote.
- ENCAP (Gibbons/Portelli) (3)
Absolute line chaser this horse who brings in the alternative form lines through lead-ups in the Up & Coming and Ming Dynasty. Should have won the Up & Coming if not for pilot error but Prebble redeemed backers in the Ming Dynasty with a peach from a kinder draw. He ran right away from them in his first go at 1400m, running good time in the process. They went hard there (5.5 lengths above benchmark to the 600m) so the fact that he sat close to the speed but showed equal strength in the finish was a sign of a good horse for mine. Harder class of opposition here no doubt but he continues to raise the bar, improving his figures at each start. From three I think he lobs a perfect spot a pair or two off them to be produced at the right time. Loses Prebble for Gibbons, which is some concern, but with a good steer I think he’s right in the finish. $10 currently and I’ve marked much shorter.
- BUTCH CASSIDY (Maloney/Waterhouse & Bott) (8)
Sole Waterhouse/Bott runner in this year’s race who on paper looks one of the few speed influences in the race. Ran well when attracting support in the Run to the Rose $11-$9. Sat outside the lead on what was an even tempo before being run over late. Nice horse and the SP profile from the lead-up gives him some claims, but I think outclassed in this.
- NADAL (Lloyd/Maher&Eustace) (13)
Very nice horse who looks to have made a good leap this preparation. Kicked off winning a very strong maiden on the Kensington track (2nd & 4th have both won since) before running a very credible 3rd behind Cylinder last start. Was momentarily held up in the straight so may have even finished closer had he seen daylight sooner. Gives the indication 1400m will be no issues and gets young gun Zac Lloyd in the saddle. Connections would have been gutted with the draw. Almost certain to be ridden cold and set the task of running over the top of them. With the strength of this race, I think that looks unlikely but again I think he’s a nice horse going forward.
- SNAPBACK (Clipperton/Team Snowden) (11)
Second up after being taken to a Goulburn maiden for an easy kill where he duly saluted at $1.10. Has some nice form through his two-year-old campaign including a fifth placing in the JJ Atkins where he started hard in the market. Gets the blinkers back on for Saturday. Think others have come on more than him so looks tested in this.
- GENERAL SALUTE (McEvoy/Ryan & Alexiou) (12)
Another who found himself amongst the blanket finish in the Run to the Rose after enjoying a nice cart into the race in the three wide line. Was a bit of a strange run as he looked to be battling a furlong out before picking up again and hitting the line strong. I wouldn’t say he’s exactly bred for 1400m, but he does look as though he will be suited out to the seven. Like a few others, I see horses who finished around him taking bigger leaps and couple that with the draw, I can’t see him figuring here.
- CHARM STONE (Lane/Price & Kent Jnr) (1)
Boom Melbourne filly who certainly brings an added element to this race heading north for last year’s winning Rose trainers in Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr. Unbeaten this prep after winning the Quezette first up and running quicker time on the day than Cylinder in the Vain. Then sent to the Valley and toughed it out with a wide run but was too good for her rivals in solid time. She’s been solidly backed in early trade $10-$5 but I think the opening price is right. Looks more of a speed filly to my eye so certainly queries on the 1400m. Add to the fact that she’s had what looked like a gut buster last start, I think she trends down if anything. Cannot pot the camp at all as they know how to win this race but have to gap her at the current price.
VERDICT
Encap and Militarize are the two horses I want on my side in what is a great edition of the Golden Rose. I’d be surprised if Encap isn’t in the finish. Gets the cushy run just off them here and will be strong at the end of 1400m. Continues to improve and a sense of timing. Militarize the big improver and the one I want to take out of the Run to the Rose. Will relish the step up in trip and from a good draw can be put further into the race. Shinzo next pick and very scared of him. Interested to see how the market treats him. Cylinder next best.
Backing ENCAP & MILITARIZE
RACING PREVIEW ROSEHILL & CAUFLIELD 23/09
BEST BETS
ROSEHILL RACE 3 – 6. UNSPOKEN
Super first up at 1500m when refusing to lie down. Straight to 1900m now but I think more upside then the two heavyweights in the market and drawn for a soft run.
ROSEHILL RACE 4 – 8. ROYAL TRIBUTE
Think he can turn the tables on Ozzmosis here with the extra run under the belt. Drawn inside him so will find the bunny and Tim Clark going on is huge.
ROSEHILL RACE 6 – 1. ATISHU
Looks to have come back super based on her run in the Sheraco. Was bolting but found trouble just about the entirety of the straight. Would love her over further but suited out to 1400m all the same and the smaller field enables her to not be so far off them. At the prices have to lean her way. Against Espiona.
CAULFIELD RACE 6 – 10. AMENABLE
Looks his race after charging home in the Group 1 last start from a hopeless position. Winner this track and trip prior and gets the good jockey change with M Zahra going aboard.
CAULFIELD RACE 7 -6. SCENTIFY & 10. SOUTHPORT TYCOON
Betting around the fancies in the Guineas Prelude. Scentify has been super both runs back and doubt he would have loved the Valley. Suited a bigger track and drawn to settle closer if they can use the gate. Southport Tycoon looks untapped and another who will relish the rise in trip.
