ROYAL RANDWICK PREVIEW
GROUP 2 - TEA ROSE STAKES
3YO Fillies
Set Weights & Penalties
The Princess series for the fillies continues at Randwick on Saturday as the girls progress to the seven furlongs in the Tea Rose Stakes. At this stage, a capacity field lines up, with last start Furious Stakes winner Tiz Invincible heading the betting at $3.80.
SPEED
They went no great gallop (2.2 lengths slow to the 600m for the class) in the Furious, but there does look slightly more pressure here with several Waterhouse/Bott trained gallopers engaged and likely to have final say on the map. Tropical Squall looks their top seed and would suggest pushes forward with Autumn Ballet (if she jumps) and Platinum Jubilee. Zardozi was drawn off the track and raced there in the Silver Shadow but finds a sympathetic run here from the paint, along with the favourite Tiz Invincible, no worse than a few pairs off. Kimochi should find a nice spot midfield with Unique Ambition and August Bloom. The Waterhouse/Bott runners dictate.
OVERVIEW
Is the lead up any good? That looks like the number one question you must ask yourself when tackling the form in this race. Six of the last ten Tea Rose winners have had their lead up run in the Furious, a slight edge, but a nod to the fact that different form can often come to the fore as the fillies step up in trip. I’ve got some question marks on the quality of this year’s Furious. They look a very even bunch to me and could see them taking turns this spring depending on who cops the best ride/run etc.
As such, I think Tropical Sqaull looks the bet in this race. Unbeaten in two career starts, the daughter of Prized Icon was super last time out on the Kensington when winning over 1400m and looking exceptionally strong through the line (3rd fastest last 200m of the day). Much harder company Saturday of course but her two career SP’s tell us the market has a good opinion of her and I think she can make the jump. Unlike many of her rivals, I love that she’s ticked the 1400m box and she’ll get a nice run here on speed for a gun front running rider in Adam Hyeronimus, who’s elected to ride her over Autumn Ballet. With the rail out Saturday, I think we might even see an advantage to those horses drawn in/on-pace which may enhance her chances. Profiles as a filly who can really rate right up here and I’m happy to be on her at the $6.
Honourable mentions to Unique Ambition and Autumn Bloom who lurk as knockouts in this and at $21 plus I want to make both winners. Unique Ambition looked fantastic on resumption at the Kenso when chasing a good horse in Carrazana. She had market support and was drawn inside on a day where you needed to be on the outside fence. She’s already been $51-$21 but I still want to be on her. August Bloom was similarly good on resumption when SP’ing $1.40 and winning with plenty in hand at Hawkesbury. Ran in the good races as a two-year-old but always profiled as though 1400m+ was her go. Tuned up with a trial in in the interim in what looks a nice set up now second up. While I’m not sure Saturday will be her race look for a nice run out of Miss Joelene headed towards the Flight Stakes (currently $26). Hit the line with real intent on resumption at Doomben and I’d expect a similar flashing light run on the weekend.
VERDICT
Good bet Tropical Squall for me at the $6. Have her slightly shorter in a race I’ve priced $5 the field. Smaller bets Unique Ambition and August Bloom who look the improvers over 1400m.
GL Punters!
7 STAKES
3YO & Upwards
WFA
SPEED
Looks a slowly run race on paper as the majority of these feature races seem to be. Zaaki your designated leader from Pericles who will push forward from the wide draw to sit outside. Hinged follows him across with the likes of Think It Over and Going Global finding nice positions. My Oberon midfield with Fangirl and Fireburn forced to take hold from their wide draws.
OVERVIEW
Fangirl was super when running them down first up in the Winx Stakes. They walked in that race, but she found the right lane and showcased her big turn of foot to overhaul the likes of Princess Grace and Zaaki in a driving finish. Princess Grace has since franked the form with a really good run in the Memsie, so the form looks good. In even more of a worry to her rivals, Fangirl did it on a rain affected track, historically not her preferred surface but clearly a sign that she’d come back well this preparation.
This really does look her race again getting out to the mile on what will be a good track on Saturday. Her singular run at a dry Randwick over the 1600m was in the Chipping Norton earlier this year when she ran Anamoe to a length in inferior ground. Improved second up and gets conditions to suit.
The negatives are the draw and the jockey change. She commonly races with a negative racing pattern but the rail out on Saturday I’d want to see whether they can make ground on the day before diving into the price. Likewise losing McDonald, with whom she has a great association, to McEvoy cannot be underestimated. McEvoy it’s fair to say hasn’t been at his best over the winter months, with just one winner from his last 50 rides, sitting at a worrying -83% ROI. There’s no doubt she’s the one to beat for me but with these two negatives I’d rather watch then bet on Saturday.
Her dangers do look limited to me with the likes of Zaaki and Think It Over on the next line of betting. Zaaki returned his worst first up figure since he came to Australia, a worrying sign as a now nine-year-old who’s best racing might clearly be behind him. Despite map favours on Saturday, I couldn’t get him as short as he is. Likewise Think It Over who I have real question marks over. His run first up was good and perhaps he was ridden too confidently in the Chelmsford, but he looked real weak late and to have a mile and half horse in Major Beel run past him was a major knock for me. I’d be gapping him hard at $5 and have him priced double that.
Pericles is the up-and-coming WFA horse who won well last time out in the Tramway over 1400m. He got a picnic on pace that day but he won softly all the same and will be better now out to the mile. I’d like to see him again against this company to stamp him but he’s the horse on the up and I’d suggest the one the market may gravitate towards. No knocks Hinged who ran a regularly honest race first up but may need it wetter to find her best.
VERDICT
Fangirl clearly the horse to beat for mine but want to at least wait to see the pattern of the day before stepping in. If on pace favoured will stay out.
GL Punters!
GROUP 2 – THE SHORTS
3YO & Upwards
Set Weights & Penalties
SPEED
Plenty of speed engaged as you’d imagine but I don’t think they go like the clappers with a fresh Overpass most likely to find the bunny with Remarque holding his spot from the inside. Interested to see what they do with Lost and Running if they fire him out or look for a spot midfield. In Secret finds a good spot stalking the speed a pair or two off them with Hawaii Five Oh. Mazu potentially posted unless they go back. Buenos Noches, Private Eye and Ruthless Dame all ridden cold.
OVERVIEW
Another intriguing sprint contest with several Everest hopefuls looking to cement a slot whilst confirmed runners tune up for the big dance on October 14th. Overpass is the horse that interests me here tackling the race first up off 18 weeks. Last time out we saw him push Giga Kick to half a length in the Doomben 10,000 after taking out the inaugural Quokka in WA. Big intent here from the camp to try and get themselves into the Everest so no doubt tuned right up which has been evident in two trials. His stats fresh and at 1100m make for good reading. I think finds the front here for Josh Parr on a favourable track and will be hard to get past. Was hoping for slightly better than $6 but if the track is playing to those on speed, then I think he could start shorter. Keen to bet each-way.
The favourite In Secret is the clear danger after a super return first up in the Concorde which rated through the roof. She was awfully unsuited there over the 1000m so for her to get as close as she did it was a very good run and one that I’m sure the camp would have been delighted with. I think she has to come off that run slightly, but nevertheless the step to 1100m and the run she’s forecast will give her every chance and she’ll be storming at them late. Remarque won that Concorde in very good time and had things against him with a wide run. Four of his five career wins have come first up so he might just be a fresh specialist so prepared to bet around him. Against Lost and Running after last preparation and want to see him back to his best before investing. Mazu finds a tricky map and I think too short for Private Eye, despite the fact I loved his most recent trial. Buenos Noches absolutely no knock and looks a horse in the zone. 1200m back to 1100m the only niggle but he is four weeks between runs with a trial so still on the fresh side. Third pick for me.
VERDICT
Having something each-way on Overpass who I think gets map favours and looks the one wound up. In Secret the clear danger. Great race.
GL punters!
