Horse Racing Bets – Queen Elizabeth Stakes – Randwick Racecourse – Matt Shean’s Racing Preview 2021

2021 QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES PUNTING PREVIEW

GROUP 1

WFA

2000M

$4,000,000

TRACK - GOOD 4

RAIL - +3M ENTIRE

OVERVIEW

Billed as the highlight of the Championships, this year’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes is set to be a cracking race with some of Australia’s elite horse flesh set to do battle over 2000m at Randwick. The UK galloper Addeybb will renew his rivalry with the Australian Champ Verry Elleegant, who lowered his colours for the first time in Australia last start in the Group 1 Ranvet. Add in the Cox Plate/Tancred winner Sir Dragonet, the All Star Mile winner in Mugatoo, Think It Over who won the George Ryder, and the Rosehill Guineas winner Mo’unga, and it should be an intriguing and tactical affair. The weather in Sydney is good, so despite overcast conditions on the day we should be racing on a GOOD 4 surface. That will certainly make things interesting as the majority of these runners prefer to get their toe in. The rail goes out 3 metres for the entire circuit. Generally, running line positions are at a premium but the inside (rails in run) is unlikely to be a disadvantage either.

SPEED MAP

The scratching of Samadoubt early in the week has devoid the race of pressure with ADDEYBB now likely to take up the running with the blinkers applied. SIR DRAGONET can park on his back with VERRY ELLEEGANT not at all far away. MUGATOO should race next in partnership with THINK IT OVER. DALASAN and MO’UNGA your backmarkers.

KEY RUNNERS

1. ADDEYBB (Marquand/Haggas) $3.10

Last year’s winner of this race, Addeybb returns 12 months later after having been toppled first up in the Ranvet by his Aussie sparring partner, Verry Elleegant. The big talking point with him leading into Saturday is the expected track conditions, with the camp vocally stating that he is better on rain affected tracks. That does indeed look the case, with his ratings on wet surfaces superior to what he has produced on the dry, albeit he has only had two good track runs. With that said, he is getting to an enticing price now having started $2.10 (versus Verry Elleegant $2.80) in the lead-up. We also saw him improve dramatically from his first up run to his second last time, aided by a stronger tempo and a great ride from Tom Marquand. His 2nd up record supports this claim, having won 5 of 6 starts. The scratching of Samadoubt earlier in the week looks a positive, as he’s likely to land in front now and able to dictate the speed to suit him. Couple that with the fact that he gets blinkers first time, and I think the gap between him and Verry Elleegant is too big. Have them equal favourites so I think the greater value lies with Addeybb.

7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (McDonald/Waller) $2.40

Probably Australia’s best horse, eight time Group 1 winner Verry Elleegant will be out to turn the tables in 2021 having run runner up to Addeybb in last year’s QE. No doubt she’s improved from last year, having added a Turnbull and a Caulfield Cup to her CV in the Spring and the Chipping Norton and Ranvet this Autumn. Without a doubt looks set to peak on Saturday coming into the race 4th up in comparison to 5th up last year when she had to drop back from the 2400m of the Tancred. There’s no doubt that this would be the race Waller has set her for all along and in the past she’s won an Oaks, Tancred and Cauflield Cup all at this stage of her prep. Like Addeybb, the knock is the ground. I think there’s no doubt that her better performances have been on tracks with give in them, even though she does have good track references. Likely to park just off Addeybb here, but it will be interesting to see whether or not that galloper takes off early to make this a truly run 2000m. The Ranvet was more a sit and sprint (race run a leisurely 2.5 lengths fast to the 600m). If that eventuates again, she’ll be too good as she has the superior turn of foot. If not, I see Addeybb being hard to run down. Obviously a super chance, but getting tight enough in the market.

OTHERS

I think it is a match race but that doesn’t mean there won’t be opposition. Sir Dragonet takes his place fresh off a 2.3 length romp in the Tancred, having finished 4th behind the top two in the market prior in the Ranvet at $14. Maybe he has just taken the runs to get fit? Or was he flattered in the Tancred by the way the track played and the weak opposition? Either way, he would appreciate a more genuine run race here as he has shown to be more effective in fast run races where he can really grind away. Mugatoo backs up seven days from starting favourite in last week’s Doncaster (1600m at $4.20). Had every chance there and did race like he is looking for the 2000m now. I do think he may be a level below though. Mo’unga is the wildcard. Three-year-old who won the Rosehill Guineas two back before a bit of a head scratcher in the Doncaster. Got too far back off a poor draw and looked to really hit a flat spot in the run, before picking up the bit again late to record the 5th fastest last 200m. The step back up to the mile and a quarter might be in his favour but there has to be a question mark on the three-year-old form this year. Think It Over flying but looks outclassed at WFA conditions. Similar Dalasan.

STRATEGY

ADDEYBB

Small field but a fantastic race. The good track certainly offers a new angle with the majority of the fancied runners preferring a rain affected track. With that said, I think the top two in the market in Addeybb and Verry Elleegant fight out the race. I don’t think there’s much between them, so at the better price I will side with Addeybb. 2nd up record speaks for itself and although he doesn’t get his favoured conditions, he can run this race to suit him with the shades going on for the first time.

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS!