QE (2000m)
Far from a vintage QE in my opinion. Via Sistina heads the market at 5/4 after beating absolutely nothing in the Ranvet but was all style. All honours her for sure overcoming the slow tempo and sectionals home were outstanding. Could be a moral but I’m wary of the change in race shape here. 13 lengths slow they went in the Ranvet to the 600m, completely different to what Pride of Jenni will serve up here after going 17 lengths fast when leading them up in the Aus Cup. Nothing to suggest a more genuinely run race won’t help Via Sistina all the same and if she can survive the acid test, then she’s the winner. POJ awfully gallant at Flemington but her past two runs must have taken something out of her and it’s a hard proposition leading all the way at Randwick, even with the rail out. Cascadian’s a beauty and runs well again but will spot the favourite a start and was ridden to perfection last start. Hate potting Joe Pride but hard to have the three-year-old back in trip. Mr. Brightside absolutely cooked and 2000m not his go. Was inclined to stay out here but the lack of opposition makes it hard. Monitoring the track but Via Sistina I think you have to be on.
BACKING – 8. VIA SISTINA
OAKS (2400m)
The NZ filly looks a class above these. Was the most unsuited in the Vinery, stepping back in trip off a four-week break and struck a walking contest where they only sprinted from the 600m. There to be beaten but surged late and hit the line with real intent. 2400m no doubt to her advantage and there’s not much for her to beat here. The inside draws a slight niggle, with the potential to get strung up behind some slow ones but she maps in front of key rivals and J-Mac gets it right more often than not. Think only bad luck beats her. As I mentioned pre the Derby, Zardozi has had a different set up this time to when she won the Vic Oaks. Potentially not as seasoned this preparation and gives up her ace with a drying track. Record at Randwick is also far from stellar. Against her. Autumn Angel good in the Adrian Knox where the big weight beat her. Quick back-up helps and likely to have admirers but doubt she has the quality, especially at a mile and a half. If you took $1.60 Orchestral in the Vinery I’d be more comfortable taking the same price here. $1.80-$1.90 I’ll be happily stepping in.
BACKING – 1. ORCHESTRAL
SYD CUP (3200m)
Absolute lottery. Circle of Fire I couldn’t have out of a weak Chairmans and has come up with the carpark. Progressive animal but spots them a start and lines up against some seasoned campaigners here. The Tancred looks equally poor in all honesty but looks the starting point. Ashrun sports a solid SP and was good late in limited room. Weighted relatively poorly out of that run but ticks the 3200m box and no doubt set for this. Athabascan the other one out of the Tancred hitting the line in the fastest L200m split. First go two miles but gives the impression he will stay and gets down in the weights. Smell of a real take it in turn race and one to go wide in the quaddie. No interest.
QUEEN OF THE TURF (1600m)
Solid edition this year with a number of different angles. Happy to take on Zougotcha who was scratched from the Doncaster last week. Third up now which might be against her with six of her seven wins coming either first or second up. No doubt favours here drawn to stalk the speed with McDonald, but I think too short. I’m a big Tropical Squall fan and I thought her run in the Coolmore was super. Following a very similar pattern too last preparation where she exploded third up to win the Flight this course and distance. Gets Hippo back and gets total control. Probably a watch as track pattern dependant but I do think the $7 is a good price. Will wait as I think likely to get better but happy to be on each-way. Atishu the danger who loomed as the winner of the Aus Cup. Just peaked late but back to her own sex and drawn to settle close in the run. The three aforementioned look the only hopes in the race to me so likely to trade around all three but Tropical Squall to be the best result.
BACKING – 14. TROPICAL SQUALL
OTHERS
RACE 2 – 4. ROBRICK – Looks an easy bet to have at the $6, with the short SP out of the Darby Munro where nothing went right. Step to 1400m looks a positive and gets B Melham back aboard. Sticky draw but if it plays down the middle I think hard to hold out.
RACE 3 – 2. STRAIT ACER – Thought his run at Wyong was massive coming from near last to savage the line. Could just be a deep prep animal so primed here 4th up and drawn closer to give Zahra options. Open race but happy to be on each-way.
RACE 4 – 1. LADY OF CAMELOT – Close to best of the day for me. No qualms with the extra week off and staying at the six furlongs a definite positive. Wide draw to contend with but it’s a straight run at Randwick and I think she’s just better than them. Eneeza a good run in the Slipper when had to be dragged but she had LOC’s back in the Diamond and couldn’t get past her. Empress of Japan a big win on debut at Gosford and will make a result at big odds.
RACE 5 – 1. OZZMOSIS – Speed galore engaged here so hoping he’s ridden with a smother from the good draw and if so, could absolutely explode. The trial since the Galaxy debacle was enormous and tactically advantaged here against the girls. Learning to Fly I’m not sold on. This does look a set up with the 42-day break bit I’ll stand her. Joliestar potentially the best horse in the race. Loved the trials but is six furlongs too sharp? The betting will be interesting with her.
