RANDWICK GUINEAS PREVIEW
Group 1 - 3YO - Set Weights - 1600m
The autumn is well and truly here and Group 1 racing continues at Royal Randwick this Saturday, headlined by the running of the Randwick Guineas (1600m). It really is a super crop of three year olds we have racing in Australia at the moment and Saturday's Guineas looks another mouthwatering contest between some of the turf's brightest young stars. The rail is out six metres from the 1600 to the winning post, four metres the remainder, and with light showers around Sydney this week we should be playing on a soft track. Here's my take on this year's Randwick Guineas.
Seven of the last eight Guineas winners have had their lead-up runs in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) so that clearly looks the form race for us to focus our attention. The market suggests as much with the first three past the post also the three most favoured in betting. For mine, the two best runs in the Hobartville belonged to the winner Kementari and the fast-finishing D'Argento, and I think it will be these two that fight out the finish on Saturday. Have really been back and forth between the two but have settled with the favourite Kementari ($2.70) on top. This striking Lonhro colt from the Godolphin yard has been utterly dominant this preparation, winning arrogantly first up at Warwick Farm before showing his versatility in the Hobartville where he was able to repel much of the same field that he meets again in the Guineas. Has to take that step to the mile now, but a second placing in the Caulfield Guineas in the spring lends me to believe that he'll handle it just fine. From gate four, he maps to get a nice smother just in behind the speed or midfield and is 1/1 on soft going. If he can extend his brilliance to the mile then I think he wins.
Chris Waller's grey colt D'Argento ($5.00) looks the only other hope for mine after the flashing light run in the Hobartville. As is his normal pattern, he settled right off the speed but was able to make up a stack of ground in the straight to really savage the line and finish a length off Kementari. Although it was the first time the So You Think colt had ever tasted defeat, I'm sure connections would have been delighted as it showed that he was right up to this grade of racing. Sectionally he was terrific, recording the fastest last 600/200m splits of the race (33.55/11.26) to really give the impression that he'll relish getting out over more ground. Bowman will go back again from the wide draw but if the track plays as it did last week, with horses off the fence and running on, he'll have the last shot at them.
Wary of Peaceful State ($8.50) here backing up from a sensational run in last week's Australian Guineas where he finished second to Grunt. Can't doubt the genius of Darren Weir, so the fact that he's chosen to travel this colt north on the quick back-up says that he must have come through the run in great order. 4th-up on Saturday means he'll be rock hard fit and we know he ticks the 1600m box. Also think he maps really well here, likely to slot in one off the fence with cover two or three pairs back. Would be greatly benefited by a strong speed so if they run a long at a good clip he comes right into calculations. Respecting.
Putting the Golden Rose winner Trapeze Artist ($9.00) in for fourth. Ran well in the Hobartville where he was forced to lead which I don't think is his go. Is much better suited when he has a bunny to chase and Tim Clark should be able to get that here easing across from the wide gate to slot in behind Siege of Quebec. Historically, his best runs have all come 3rd-up which is what he is on Saturday. First go at the mile on Saturday is a little bit of a question mark but with the run he's forecast to get he should have every chance to see it out.
RANDWICK GUINEAS TIPS
1. Kementari ($2.70)
2. D'Argento ($5)
3. Peaceful State ($8.50)
4. Trapeze Artist ($9)
For all the latest Randwick Guineas betting odds, click here.
