NEWMARKET HANDICAP PREVIEW
Group 1 - 1200m
One of Melbourne's and indeed Australia's premier sprint races, the Newmarket Handicap, highlights a stellar card of Group 1 racing on 'Super Saturday' at Flemington. The 2018 edition looks a tantalising betting race, with a number of different form lines and angles making it very hard to find the winner. Here's my take on the time-honoured Group 1.
Could really make a case for half the field here but I've landed with Rich Charm ($7.50) on top. The popular gelding comes into this race second-up off a four week freshen after being awfully unlucky in the Rubiton, where after being tardily away he found trouble all the way up the straight to basically go to the line untested. Quite remarkably, he was still able to clock the equal fastest 400/200m (22.62/11.49) closing splits of the race despite the chequered path. Think this shows that Udyta Clarke has this horse absolutely flying. Drops significantly in weight on Saturday and loves it down the straight, having raced at Flemington on five occasions for three wins, including two for two at the 1200m. It's also worth noting that his latest win at headquarters on derby day was run 0.2 seconds quicker overall time to that of Merchant Navy in winning the Coolmore on the same day. Slight query about where he's drawn in gate five, with most of last week's winners at Flemington over the short course winning from the middle-outside part of the track. Hopefully Patrick Moloney can find the A ground and with a nice cart into the race he'll be charging at them late. Think he can only run well here and looks a great each way investment.
Race favourite Merchant Navy ($5.00) looks the logical danger and could well blow this field away on Saturday. Like Rich Charm, he too comes into this a month between runs after a sound return in the Rubiton, having made up significant ground from the back to run third in what was a slowly run race. His win over this course and distance in the Coolmore during the spring was one of the wins of the carnival. Was still five lengths off them at the 300m but sprouted wings late to nail Invincible Star right on the line, with some very good horses in Kementari, Trapeze Artist, Catchy, Formality, Tulip and Houtzen all in behind him. With his stud career already confirmed, this could well be his last run and Aaron Purcell has made it no secret in stating that this is the race he's been set for. Profiles well with the light weight and with the main speed drawn inside him, should get a nice camp off them and look to launch late. No doubt has a bit of brilliance about him and looking forward to seeing what he can produce come Saturday.
It's no surprise to see Booker being nibbled away at in early markets ($11-$9) because this is a filly of tremendous talent. Dominated first up in the Kevin Hayes (defeating subsequent winners Tulip and Shoals) then went to the Oakleigh Plate where her run needed to be seen to be believed. Had zero luck being forced to race four wide and was then pushed even wider around the turn, but still had the audacity to finish just half a length off winner Russian Revolution, all while posting one of the quickest last 200m splits of the race! It was an unbelievable performance to see her find the line that way with the run that she had. Is third-up now so should be reaching peak fitness and won third-up last preparation. Just hoping that the Oakleigh Plate run hasn't knocked her around too much. If not, she'll find herself close to the speed and be there a long way. Definitely won't be losing on her.
Have to have Redkirk Warrior ($6.50) in the numbers somewhere after his freakish win first-up in the Lightning where he lowered the colours of Redzel. Came home in 31.59/10.64 that day which is absolutely low flying, and certainly has an affinity for the straight six at Flemington having won twice from three attempts. Drawn in the right part of the track and even with the top weight of 57.5kg, a repeat of his last start effort will see him go mighty close here.
NEWMARKET TIPS
1. Rich Charm ($7.50)
2. Merchant Navy ($5)
3. Booker ($9)
4. Redkirk Warrior ($6.50)
