AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS PREVIEW
Group 1 - 3YOs - 1600m
The three-year-olds will take centre stage this Saturday at Flemington with the running of the Group 1 Australian Guineas the feature event on a bumper nine race card. It looks an ultra competitive edition with a host of chances and certainly some value for punters in early markets. BlueBet has sifted through the form and weighs in on the main chances in the mile classic.
The CS Hayes looks the lead-up to focus on with the top two in betting, Cliffs Edge ($4.40) and Grunt ($5.50), both dominant that day in fighting out the finish. It was Grunt who got the upper hand a fortnight ago and I think he can do the same again come Saturday even though he has drawn awfully wide in gate 17. This is a super impressive colt, who's now won three from four and continued to improve every time he's come to the races. His win in the CS Hayes was dominant, where aided by a lovely steer from Damien Oliver, Grunt stalked Cliffs Edge everywhere he went and when called upon absolutely powered away in the straight to score by three quarters of a length with a gap back to third. Even though Cliffs Edge endured the tougher run, it was the way Grunt went through the line that makes me want to be with him here. Had they went another 200m I think Grunt puts a big space on them. No doubt he'll absolutely relish the step up to the mile and he just looks the progressive horse. With relatively little speed in the race, I'm hoping that Oliver tags Cliffs Edge across and goes forward from the wide alley. If he can find a position then I think he's the one to beat.
Cliffs Edge looks the logical danger having ran an absolute bottler first up to win over the 1200m before just being collared late by Grunt in the CS Hayes. As mentioned, he endured a torrid run that day, having to sit three wide and face the breeze but still gave an almighty kick and was super brave to the line. Gets a 3.5kg weight swing on Grunt on Saturday and does look to hold all the aces if he's able to cross and lead comfortably as expected. Is one from one at the mile and if he gets it soft enough in front then he's the one they all need to get past.
Main Stage went up big odds at $16 earlier in the week and even though he has come in for some support the $14 on offer at current still looks very attractive. This stayer from the Busuttin and Young yard enjoyed a fairly successful spring that culminated in a very credible 5th behind Ace High in the Derby. Was terrific first up in the CS Hayes, where he was ridden cold but absolutely charged late to grab 4th, recording the quickest last 600/200m sectionals of the race (33.10/11.46) despite being held up for a stride or two as he picked his way through the field. Loves the wide open spaces of Flemington and even though he'll improve over further, he has won at the mile in the past. Can settle a lot closer to the speed from the good gate and looks a great each way play.
Fans of Peaceful State would have been feeling a little flat after his run in the CS Hayes but I think he can be forgiven for the performance. Was only 10 days between runs after his massive first up win at Sandown and looked a little uncomfortable when racing in restricted room in the straight. He started favourite that day so the money was there to say he'd measure up. Strips fitter once again and the rise to 1600m is in his favour. Looks a touch of overs at the current quote of $13.
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AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS TIPS
1. Grunt ($5.50)
2. Cliffs Edge ($4.40)
3. Main Stage ($14)
4. Peaceful State ($13)
For the latest Australian Guineas odds, click here.
