This week's headline plays are Tron Bolt at 0.7 units at $8 in the Caulfield Guineas and Global Goal at 2.5 units in the Flight Stakes. Bridal Waltz is our strongest Traders' Best Bet at 3 units at $2.70 in Caulfield Race 5, while Barrengarry at 2.5 units at $3 heads the Rosehill card.
One of the great days of the Australian turf, Caulfield Guineas Day has arrived and we're presented with a stacked card. Supported by a strong meeting at Rosehill, let's cast our eye over the feature races and see what our traders like across the big day.
Feature Races
Caulfield
Caulfield Guineas - Caulfield - 1600m G1
Bit of a lacklustre Caulfield Guineas this year with Blind Raise taking on the might of Warwoven and the Golden Rose form. Warwoven a dominant favourite off what he did in the Rose, running a big number that was largely set up by a suicidal speed from Central Europe. He found the right spot in running to absorb that and was noticeably strong late, taking all honours. He's either very good or those chasing him are not. I lean the former, but no way could I take 5/4 first time at Caulfield and first go at the mile.
Blind Raise would be my top pick. Loved what he did last start in the prelude, absorbing pressure around the bend and running away from them untouched. Gets every possible here from the draw, it's just whether or not he is up to the Sydney colts. Tron Bolt is the only other horse I could entertain. I would have liked to see him do a little more in the Rose and the draw here makes it tough, but we've seen horses from this camp explode in their grand finals and this looks like his. Could make a marked jump at the mile and at $8 I'm happy to have him onside. Warwoven too short, Blind Raise about right and Tron Bolt slight overs so will have something on the Waller colt.
Toorak Handicap - Caulfield - 1600m G1
$6 the field for the Toorak. Lady Shenandoah we backed in the Rupert Clarke and I thought she was weak after being afforded every possible in the run. This is not a strong race but she does not look at her best and I cannot entertain. Regal Award very capable but has the capacity to overdo it. Sabaj was the horse that caught my attention third up at 1600m. Two complete barrier trials so far this prep but his work to the line the other day was very good and he gets conditions to suit now. I thought Salty Pearl was another set to peak. Owns a solid rating at this course and distance and gets a good map for Willo on the minimum. Finally, Feroce is one of mine and I have to have something on him largely for mental health purposes. With that said, he was good the other day coming again through the line and always runs solidly at the mile.
Sabaj @ $10.00 (0.6 Units)
Salty Pearl @ $14.00 (0.4 Units)
Feroce @ $17.00 (0.3 Units)
Rosehill
Gloaming Stakes - Rosehill - 1800m G3
Looked one of the better races of the day at Rosehill with some lightly raced likely types pressing their credentials for Derbys and Oaks. Proxima Dea unbeaten in three career starts and now comes here six weeks between runs out of a midway. No thank you. Genesis Runner on the quick back-up from last week where he looked all over a winner. Again could not possibly have, with his links to Stormy Marco and now meeting him worse at the weights.
The Rose form does look to the fore here, especially Cormier who was just run off his feet the other day but very good through the line. Draws well to settle much closer and I love Bullock sticking with him. Hillbilly Elegy was the other horse I think can make the step after winning well at Hawkesbury second up. Will roll forward and give a sight at a big price.
Cormier @ $5.50 (1.1 Units)
Hillbilly Elegy @ $41.00 (0.15 Units)
Traders' Best Bets
Rosehill Race 1 - Miss Spacegirl
Always looking to take on Felix Majestic who is allergic to the winning post, and this mare returned well hitting the line with intent and market support. Seven furlongs helps and just needs a good steer.
Miss Spacegirl @ $5.00 (1.3 Units)
Rosehill Race 3 - Barrengarry
Gone to a new level this prep and continues to look on an upward spiral. His dangers here are largely tied together and I think he'll be hard to beat.
Barrengarry @ $3.00 (2.5 Units)
Rosehill Race 5 - Chuchichaschtli and Lafite
This race is crying out for new blood, and these are the two. Chuchichaschtli won arrogantly on debut beating Love Story who has since franked the form. Lafite may need further but will be hitting the line very strongly.
Chuchichaschtli @ $3.30 (2.2 Units)
Lafite @ $11.00 (0.5 Units)
Rosehill Race 8 - Linebacker
Market loved him resuming and I thought his run was very good against the tempo. Trialled super in the interim and in a strong race he's the way I'll play.
Rosehill Race 9 - Miss Freelove and Annie's Rose
I like the race and am happy to bet around the fancies. Miss Freelove great first up, only out late, and Annie's Rose in super form. Having both small.
Miss Freelove @ $12.00 (0.5 Units)
Annie's Rose @ $15.00 (0.4 Units)
Caulfield Race 5 - Bridal Waltz
Happy to side with Bridal Waltz after I think she just went too slow the other day, allowing Point Barrow to work into the race. Luke Nolen goes aboard and can control from the front.
Bridal Waltz @ $2.70 (3 Units)
Running Total: +32.5 Units (Out 160.85 / In 193.35)
Big Bets
Where the money has been going across the weekend's major meetings.
Caulfield
| Race | Horse | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 1 No.6 | Veyepee | $5,000 | $2.80 |
| Race 4 No.12 | Pinhole | $2,500 | $5.00 |
| Race 6 No.1 | Jigsaw | $10,000 | $2.40 |
| Race 7 No.6 | Sheza Alibi | $7,000 | $1.35 |
| Race 8 No.2 | Warwoven | $3,000 | $2.20 |
Rosehill
| Race | Horse | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 6 No.1 | Paradoxium | $5,000 | $2.60 |
| Race 7 No.1 | Lindermann | $3,000 | $2.00 |
| Race 10 No.9 | Fierce | $2,000 | $2.60 |
