Futurity Stakes Preview
Group 1 - 3YO & Up Weight For Age - 1400m
The Futurity Stakes kicks off the trio of Group 1s on Saturday at Caulfield and a high class field has assembled to do battle over the 1400m under weight for age conditions. Darren Weir holds a typically strong hand with race favourite Brave Smash and proven Group 1 galloper Tosen Stardom, with Humidor also kicking off his autumn campaign after last being seen running in the Melbourne Cup. BlueBet has run it's eye over the form to help you find the winner of the time honoured Group 1.
The CF Orr Stakes undoubtedly looks the strongest form line heading into the Futurity and that's where we're looking with six of the eleven runners who lined up a fortnight ago lining up again here. Darren Weir's Brave Smash has come up favourite for the race and has been well supported in early markets firming from $3.90 into the current quote of $3.40. The CF Orr saw a host of hard luck stories but perhaps none greater than that of Brave Smash, where turning for home, this former Japanese galloper was absolutely bolting for John Allen but was blocked for a clear run on the back of tiring horses. When Allen was finally able to clip off heels, Brave Smash absolutely exploded to only go down a neck to Hartnell in a blanket finish, clocking the fastest last 200m split of the race by some way with 11.63. Really seemed to relish the step up in distance to the 1400m and a repeat of his effort in the Orr should see him go mighty close on Saturday. Reaches peak fitness here 3rd up and with the lack of speed Craig Williams can look to settle a little closer in the run. Looks the clear standout pick.
While the run of Brave Smash was hard to miss in the Orr the run of Mighty Boss was just as tragic. The Caulfield Guineas winner from the spring presented at the top of the straight but was unable to bullock himself out of a pocket and almost fell, only to pick himself up again and go to the line basically untested. Micheal Walker said bluntly post-race that if he got the breaks he would have won. It certainly showed that the Not A Single Doubt colt has returned in great order and from gate 3 on Saturday he should find a lovely spot just in behind the speed. May lack the finishing burst of Brave Smash but he looks the main danger to the favourite.
For those looking for a different form line to the Orr, the Team Hawkes trained Showtime could well be the knockout hope after an encouraging run first up in Sydney in the Expressway Stakes. The Snitzel colt hit the line tremendously well recording the fastest 600/200m splits of the race to only go down a length to Golden Rose winner Trapeze Artist, with Group 1 horses Global Glamour and Ace High in behind. Will relish stepping to the 1400m and has a good record second up having one once before. Looks a good each way play at the $7.00
We couldn't leave out Tosen Stardom who goes in for fourth. Was well backed and started a clear favourite in the Orr but was ridden upside down to settle in the first few, where he couldn't slot in so was forced to race three wide on a limb facing the breeze. The fact that he only went down by 2.5 lengths gives great merit to the run but how much it took out of the horse is the question. Darren Weir has admitted that the horse took longer than usual to recover from the first-up run, with stewards reporting that a poor post race recovery, heat stress and the thumps. It also seems curios that Ben Allen has been given the nod to ride instead of regular rider Damien Lane. Nevertheless, if you can overlook those factors, the $5 on offer currently could be value for a horse that won two Group 1's in the Spring. We may look back after the race and wonder how on earth he was that price.
FUTURITY STAKES TIPS
1. Brave Smash $3.40
2. Mighty Boss $6
3. Showtime $7
4. Tosen Stardom $5.50
